Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Depth classification of underwater targets based on complex acoustic intensity of normal modes

In order to solve the problem of depth classification of the underwater target in a very low frequency acoustic field, the active component of cross spectra of particle pressure and horizontal velocity (ACCSPPHV) is adopted to distinguish the surface vessel and the underwater target. According to the effective depth of a Pekeris waveguide, the placing depth forecasting equations of passive vertical double vector hydrophones are proposed. Numerical examples show that when the sum of depths of two hydrophones is the effective depth, the sign distribution of ACCSPPHV has nothing to do with horizontal distance; in addition, the sum of the first critical surface and the second critical surface is equal to the effective depth. By setting the first critical surface less than the difference between the effective water depth and the actual water depth, that is, the second critical surface is greater than the actual depth, the three positive and negative regions of the whole ocean volume are equivalent to two positive and negative regions and therefore the depth classification of the underwater target is obtained. Besides, when the 20 m water depth is taken as the first critical surface in the simulation of underwater targets (40 Hz, 50 Hz, and 60 Hz respectively), the effectiveness of the algorithm and the correctness of relevant conclusions are verified, and the analysis of the corresponding forecasting performance is conducted.     

Tropical Atlantic climate response to different freshwater input in high latitudes with an ocean-only general circulation model

Tropical Atlantic climate change is relevant to the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through different physical processes. Previous coupled climate model simulation suggested a dipole-like SST structure cooling over the North Atlantic and warming over the South Tropical Atlantic in response to the slowdown of the AMOC. Using an ocean-only global ocean model here, an attempt was made to separate the total influence of various AMOC change scenarios into an oceanic-induced component and an atmospheric-induced component. In contrast with previous freshwater-hosing experiments with coupled climate models, the ocean-only modeling presented here shows a surface warming in the whole tropical Atlantic region and the oceanic-induced processes may play an important role in the SST change in the equatorial south Atlantic. Our result shows that the warming is partly governed by oceanic process through the mechanism of oceanic gateway change, which operates in the regime where freshwater forcing is strong, exceeding 0.3 Sv. Strong AMOC change is required for the gateway mechanism to work in our model because only when the AMOC is sufficiently weak, the North Brazil Undercurrent can flow equatorward, carrying warm and salty north Atlantic subtropical gyre water into the equatorial zone. This threshold is likely to be model-dependent. An improved understanding of these issues may have help with abrupt climate change prediction later.     

Mechanisms of partly flooded loose sand deposits

Partly flooded loose sand deposits are left back from lignite mining, particularly in east Germany. After flooding, gas inclusions in macropores enhance the pore pressure increase by total stress cycles without drainage, and this can cause the transition into a kind of suspension. Thus, natural and technical changes of surface loads triggered flow slides in chain reactions of sometimes catastrophic extent. Such collapsible deposits were and are stabilized by blast-induced liquefaction and densification. Successive collapse fronts in flooded grain skeletons are seismogeneous, and this appears as wavering in the near-field and leads to power-law spectra in the far-field. Apart from this evidence of mild fractality, the wild fractality of chain reactions eludes mathematical treatment. Therefore, uncommon methods of geotechnical design, operations and monitoring are required.     

Intrinsic groundwater vulnerability determination at the aquifer scale: a methodology coupling travel time estimation and rating methods

Groundwater vulnerability has been subject of much research due to the valuable information it provides concerning groundwater protection and exploitation potential. Up to now, most groundwater vulnerability studies adopt subjective systems of rating the various factors and subsequently, their results are often ambiguous and contradicting. Within the present study a methodology for the estimation of intrinsic groundwater vulnerability at the aquifer scale is presented. The methodology is based on travel time estimation from specified sources of pollution to the aquifer. Besides the deterministic calculation of travel times, the methodology provides a rating system for each pollution source, based on its relative severity and the estimated threat that it poses to the aquifer. Therefore, it can be regarded as a hybrid method that couples the advantages provided by the physically based methods with those of the subjective rating systems. The methodology is applied to the Neon Sidirochorion aquifer, Northeastern Greece, an overexploited aquifer where river waters, sea waters and lake waters interact, causing groundwater quality deterioration to the aquifer. The results indicated that the proposed groundwater vulnerability assessment methodology is well capturing pollution related to saltwater intrusion and agricultural activities, while it is concluded that the conceptual model is significantly affecting the vulnerability assessment results and therefore has to be previously developed.     

Estimation of air-overpressure produced by blasting operation through a neuro-genetic technique

Blasting operations usually produce significant environmental problems which may cause severe damage to the nearby areas. Air-overpressure (AOp) is one of the most important environmental impacts of blasting operations which needs to be predicted and subsequently controlled to minimize the potential risk of damage. In order to solve AOp problem in Hulu Langat granite quarry site, Malaysia, three non-linear methods namely empirical, artificial neural network (ANN) and a hybrid model of genetic algorithm (GA)–ANN were developed in this study. To do this, 76 blasting operations were investigated and relevant blasting parameters were measured in the site. The most influential parameters on AOp namely maximum charge per delay and the distance from the blast-face were considered as model inputs or predictors. Using the five randomly selected datasets and considering the modeling procedure of each method, 15 models were constructed for all predictive techniques. Several performance indices including coefficient of determination (R ²), root mean square error and variance account for were utilized to check the performance capacity of the predictive methods. Considering these performance indices and using simple ranking method, the best models for AOp prediction were selected. It was found that the GA–ANN technique can provide higher performance capacity in predicting AOp compared to other predictive methods. This is due to the fact that the GA–ANN model can optimize the weights and biases of the network connection for training by ANN. In this study, GA–ANN is introduced as superior model for solving AOp problem in Hulu Langat site.     

Rare earth element fingerprints in Korean coastal bay sediments: Association with provenance discrimination

Rare earth elements (REEs: La-Lu) in surface sediments collected from the mouth and middle tidal flats of Gomso Bay, South Korea, in August 2011 and May 2012 were analyzed to investigate the fine-grained sediment provenance. The upper continental crust (UCC)-normalized light REEs (LREEs: La to Nd) were more enriched than the middle REEs (MREEs: Sm to Dy) and heavy REEs (HREEs: Ho to Lu), resulting in large (La/Yb)_UCC (1.9 ± 0.4) to (Gd/Yb)_UCC (1.4 ± 0.2) ratios. The monthly (La/Yb)_UCC values differed between the mouth and middle tidal flats due to deposition of fine-grained sediments that originated from distant rivers (the Geum and Yeongsan) and the Jujin Stream, located on the southern shore of the inner bay. We observed relative reductions in the (La/Yb)_UCC value and REE content in the sediments from the mouth of the bay compared with those from Jujin Stream sediments. Confined to the middle tidal flat around the KH Line of Jujin Stream, the sediments, most enriched in LREEs but depleted in Eu, were distributed in August as strong Jujin Stream runs. Here, we suggest that an increase in LREE/HREE and decrease in MREE/LREE ratios can be used as a proxy to identify the Jujin Stream provenance in mixed riverine sediments and to trace Jujin Stream sediments within the Gomso Bay tidal flat, especially in the summer rainy season.     

Strategy of photo-protection in phytoplankton assemblages in the Kongsfjorden,Svalbard, Arctic

Photo-protective functions were investigated in phytoplankton assemblages at Kongsfjorden, Svalbard in spring, using their UV-absorbing compounds (mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs)), xanthophyll pigments (diadinoxanthin (DD) and diatoxanthin (DT)) and < beta >- dimethylsulphoniopropionate (< beta >_-DMSP). The dominant phytoplankton species in the inner bay were dominated by Phaeocystis spp. and nanoflagellates, while the offshore waters were dominated by Thalassiosira spp. In the inner bay, UVabsorbing compounds and xanthophyll pigments exhibited higher ratios of MAA to chlorophyll a (MAA:chl a ratio), and both DD and DT to chlorophyll a (DD:chl a ratio and DT:chl a ratio), respectively. Thus, the photoprotective-pigments such as DD and DT appear to complement MAAs in the natural phytoplankton assemblage. However, the ratio of < beta >_-DMSP to chlorophyll a (< beta >_-DMSP:chl a ratio) did not show a distinct spatial distribution according to environmental factors or interspecies differences. In this study, we found that photoprotective compounds occurred in a manner dependent on the phytoplankton species composition in Kongsfjorden Bay, where Phaeocystis is the dominant species.