CO2 dilution in the lower atmosphere from temperature and wind speed profiles

Temperature and wind speed profiles obtained from 3?years of radio acoustic sounding system sodar measurements at a rural site in the northern Spanish plateau were fitted to polynomial functions. Depending on the extrema of these fits, several groups of profiles were considered. Daily evolution of temperature profiles corresponded to the lower boundary layer evolution. However, wind speed profiles revealed a frequent low-level jet during the whole day. CO₂ surface concentrations were analysed, and surface CO₂ dilution was also considered by selection of thin canopies with variable depth, resulting in dilution rates of 7 and 18?ppm when the layer increased 100?m for the 95th percentile and temperature and wind speed profiles, respectively.     

Numerical simulation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall in SW Amazon basin during the 1999 rainy season: the role of convective trigger function

In continental areas, the maximum rainfall simulated with the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) occurs around 4?h earlier than the one observed with rain gauges. This work presents the successful implementation of a new convective trigger function (CTF) in the convective parameterization scheme used in BRAMS that corrects this misfit between model and observations. The importance of the CTF formulation on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Amazon Basin is reflected by the following numbers: Over Rondonia (SW Amazonia), the original version of BRAMS simulates the maximum rainfall at 1400 UTC (1000 LST), with the new CTF maximum shifting to 1800?UTC (1400?LST), while the S-band radar rainfall maximum is at 1900?UTC (1500?LST). This is attributed to two factors: (1) the new CTF is now coupled to the sensible and latent heat fluxes at surface; (2) during the early morning, the convective available potential energy is reduced.     

A seasonal study of the atmospheric dynamics over the Iberian Peninsula based on circulation types

A seasonal analysis of the atmospheric circulation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based on circulation types (CTs) obtained from sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height is presented. The study covers the period of 1958–2008, when a high variability and important changes in winter and spring precipitation and temperature have been reported. Frequency, persistence, and the most probable transitions of the circulation types are analyzed. Among the clustering methods available in the literature, two of the most reliable classification methods have been tested, K-means and simulated annealing and diversified randomization. A comparison of both methods over the IP is presented for winter (DJF). The quality of the circulation types obtained through both methods as well as the better stability achieved by K-means suggest this method as more appropriated for our target area. Twelve CTs were obtained for each season and were analyzed. The patterns obtained were regrouped in five general situations: anticyclonic, cyclonic, zonal, summertime, and hybrid-mixed. The analysis of frequencies of these situations offers a similar characterization of the atmospheric circulation that others previously obtained by subjective methods. The analysis of the trends in frequency and persistence for each CT shows few significant trends, mainly in winter and spring with a general decrease of the cyclonic patterns and an increase of the anticyclonic situations. This can be related to the negative precipitation trends reported by other authors. Regarding the persistence, an interesting result is that there is a high interannual variability of the persistence in autumn and spring, when patterns can persist longer than in other seasons. An analysis of the most probable transitions between the CTs has been performed, revealing the existence of cyclic sequences in all seasons. These sequences are related to the high frequency of certain patterns such as the anticyclonic situations in winter. Finally, a clear seasonal dependence of the transitions between cyclonic situations associated with extratropical disturbances was found. This dependence suggests that the transitions of low-pressure systems towards the south of the IP are more likely in spring and autumn than in winter.     

Why does the Antarctic Peninsula Warm in climate simulations?

The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed significantly since the 1950s. This pronounced and isolated warming trend is collectively captured by 29 twentieth-century climate hindcasts participating in the version 3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. To understand the factors driving warming trends in the hindcasts, we examine trends in Peninsula region’s atmospheric heat budget in every simulation. We find that atmospheric latent heat release increases in nearly all hindcasts. These increases are generally anthropogenic in origin, and account for about 60% of the ensemble-mean warming trend in the Peninsula. They are driven primarily by well-understood features of the anthropogenic intensification of global hydrological cycle. As sea surface temperature increases, moisture contained in atmospheric flows increases. When such flows are forced to ascend the Peninsula’s topography, enhanced local latent heat release results. The mechanism driving the warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is therefore clear in the models. Evidence for a similar mechanism operating in the real world is seen in the increasing snow accumulation rates inferred from ice cores drilled in the Peninsula. However, the relative importance of this mechanism and other processes previously identified as potentially causing the observed warming, such as the recent sea ice retreat in the Bellingshausen Sea, is difficult to assess. Thus the relevance of the simulated warming mechanism to the observed warming is unclear, in spite of its robustness in the models.     

The role of the Indian monsoon onset in the West African monsoon onset: observations and AGCM nudged simulations

In spring the inland penetration of the West African Monsoon (WAM) is weak and the associated rainband is located over the Guinean coast. Then within a few days deep convection weakens considerably and the rainband reappears about 20?days after over the Sahel, where it remains until late September signalling the summer rainy season. Over the period 1989–2008 a teleconnection induced by the Indian monsoon onset is shown to have a significant impact on the WAM onset, by performing composite analyses on both observational data sets and atmospheric general circulation model simulations ensembles where the model is nudged to observations over the Indian monsoon sector. The initiation of convective activity over the Indian subcontinent north of 15°N at the time of the Indian monsoon onset results in a westward propagating Rossby wave establishing over North Africa 7–15?days after. A back-trajectory analysis shows that during this period, dry air originating from the westerly subtropical jet entrance is driven to subside and move southward over West Africa inhibiting convection there. At the same time the low-level pressure field over West Africa reinforces the moisture transport inland. After the passage of the wave, the dry air intrusions weaken drastically. Hence 20?days after the Indian monsoon onset, convection is released over the Sahel where thermodynamic conditions are more favourable. This scenario is very similar in the observations and in the nudged simulations, meaning that the Indian monsoon onset is instrumental in the WAM onset and its predictability at intraseasonal scale.     

The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO–IOD relationships in a global coupled model

The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24?h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM–ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2?h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM–ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Ni?o event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model’s El Ni?o which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM–ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum is in better agreement with observations. On the other hand, the ISM–IOD teleconnection is sensitive to both SST coupling frequency and the vertical oceanic resolution, but increasing the vertical oceanic resolution is degrading the ISM–IOD teleconnection in the CGCM. These results highlight the need of a proper assessment of both temporal scale interactions and coupling strategies in order to improve current CGCMs. These results, which must be confirmed with other CGCMs, have also important implications for dynamical seasonal prediction systems or climate change projections of the monsoon.     

Strategies to mitigate aliasing of loading signals while estimating GPS frame parameters

Although GNSS techniques are theoretically sensitive to the Earth center of mass, it is often preferable to remove intrinsic origin and scale information from the estimated station positions since they are known to be affected by systematic errors. This is usually done by estimating the parameters of a linearized similarity transformation which relates the quasi-instantaneous frames to a long-term frame such as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). It is well known that non-linear station motions can partially alias into these parameters. We discuss in this paper some procedures that may allow reducing these aliasing effects in the case of the GPS techniques. The options include the use of well-distributed sub-networks for the frame transformation estimation, the use of site loading corrections, a modification of the stochastic model by downweighting heights, or the joint estimation of the low degrees of the deformation field. We confirm that the standard approach consisting of estimating the transformation over the whole network is particularly harmful for the loading signals if the network is not well distributed. Downweighting the height component, using a uniform sub-network, or estimating the deformation field perform similarly in drastically reducing the amplitude of the aliasing effect. The application of these methods to reprocessed GPS terrestrial frames permits an assessment of the level of agreement between GPS and our loading model, which is found to be about 1.5 mm WRMS in height and 0.8 mm WRMS in the horizontal at the annual frequency. Aliased loading signals are not the main source of discrepancies between loading displacement models and GPS position time series.     

A forced response to twentieth century climate conditions of two Spanish forests inferred from widths and stable isotopes of tree rings

This dendroclimatological research is based on two close pine forests (Pinus sylvestris and Pinus uncinata) located at the Northern Iberian System (Spain), and three tree-ring variables (ring widths, δ ¹³C and δ ¹⁸O). The climate-tree growth system was assessed at local and regional scales using three climate datasets. Calibration of tree-ring records with climate showed a diversity of information recorded in the different variables, such as a general response to temperature and precipitation of current growing period, and an important contribution of previous year conditions understood as the use of food reserves. The analysis of the stability of climate-tree growth relationships throughout the twentieth century showed a shift of those climatic variables to which trees responded and results suggested an enhancement of reserve use on current tree growth. The results obtained in this research made clear a physiological adaptation of trees to changing climate. The results provided hints that the recent warming coupled to slight precipitation decay are forcing growth of studied trees to a higher stress status and to a higher climate-growth synchronisation. These instabilities also have implications on future dendroclimatic reconstructions performed with trees growing under changing environments.     

Precipitation,temperature and wind in Norway: dynamical downscaling of ERA40

A novel downscaling approach of the ERA40 (ECMWF 40-years reanalysis) data set has been taken and results for comparison with observations in Norway are shown. The method applies a nudging technique in a stretched global model, focused in the Norwegian Sea (67°N, 5°W). The effective resolution is three times the one of the ERA40, equivalent to about 30 km grid spacing in the area of focus. Longer waves (<T42) in the downscaled solution are nudged towards the ERA40 solution, and thus the large-scale circulation is similar in the two data sets. The shorter waves are free to evolve, and produce high intensities of winds and precipitation. The comparison to observations incorporate numerous station data points of (1) precipitation (#357), (2) temperature (#98) and (3) wind (#10), and for the period 1961–1990, the downscaled data set shows large improvements over ERA40. The daily precipitation shows considerable reduction in bias (from 50 to 11%), and twofold reduction at the 99.9 percentile (from −59 to −29%). The daily temperature showed a bias reduction of about a degree in most areas, and relative large RMSE reduction (from 7.5 to 5.0°C except winter). The wind comparison showed a slight improvement in bias, and significant improvements in RMSE.