Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment

A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described. Specifically, a logistic regression is applied to predict the spatial distribution by estimating the probability of occurrence of a landslide in a 16 km² area. For this purpose, a GIS is employed to gather the relevant sample information connected with the landslides. The advantages of pre-processing the explanatory variables by nonparametric density estimation (for continuous variables) and a reclassification (for categorical/discrete ones) are discussed. The pre-processing leads to new explanatory variables, namely, some functions which measure the favourability of occurrence of a landslide. The resulting model correctly classifies 98.55% of the inventaried landslides and 89.80% of the landscape surface without instabilities. New data about recent shallow landslides were collected in order to validate the model, and 92.20% of them are also correctly classified. The results support the methodology and the extrapolation of the model to the whole study area (278 km²) in order to obtain susceptibility maps.     

Pseudosection modelling for a selected eclogite body from the Koralpe (Hohl), Eastern Alps

In the Kor-, Saualpe and Pohorje regions of the Eastern Alps eclogite bodies occur within metapelitic gneisses. The bodies are between 1 meter and several hundreds of meters in size and some of them were defined by Haüy (1822) as the type locality for the rock type “eclogite”. A growing body of petrological work has documented the metamorphic evolution of the metapelites surrounding the eclogites. However, few phase diagrams have been constructed for the eclogite bodies themselves. Here we use recently available activity models for amphiboles to present new thermodynamic pseudosections for the Hohl locality of the Koralpe eclogites. We show that this eclogite reached peak conditions in a narrow PT field obliquely oriented in PT space between 16.5 and 20.5 kbar and 620°C to 720°C and that its metamorphic evolution was likely to have occurred under water saturated conditions. We conclude that eclogite and the surrounding metapelites have certainly undergone the same metamorphic peak in Eo-alpine time. Comparison of our results with different PT estimates on the eclogite from Pohorje, suggest that a PT gradient from Koralpe to Pohorje is likely.     

Getting across information communities

Amazon’s deforestation affects citizens from varying information communities. Experts like scientists or journalists acquire relevant data on-site and publish valuable information on the Web. But different and sometimes conflicting views on reality impede sharing of information across communities, relevant content remains far too often undiscovered. We introduce rule-based semantic annotations as solution to facilitate the discovery and evaluation of geographical information. With the distinction between shared domain and local information source ontologies, the proposed architecture of a semantically supported SDI for the Amazon also takes the plethora of GI formats into account. Creating semantic annotations is challenging, a recommender system for semantic annotations enables even the non-IT experts to participate. The benefits of the proposed techniques are further illustrated by a scenario which spans across information communities of economics, ecology, and ethnology.     

The Ereendavaa Range (north-eastern Mongolia): an additional argument for Mesozoic extension throughout eastern Asia

Mesozoic rift basins locally bounding metamorphic core complexes have been recognized in Transbaikalia and northern China. Numerous basement outcrops located between these two regions, in eastern Mongolia, are considered as pre-Palaeozoic in age. One of these, the Ereendavaa Range, appears as a gneissic core marked by amphibolite-facies metamorphic conditions. The range is overlain to the NW by the unmetamorphosed Mesozoic Onon Basin. Below the basin, the upper part of the range consists of a gently NW-dipping shear zone associated with top-to-the-NW motion. The structural pattern is consistent with syn-extensional exhumation of the range. Preliminary geochronological data indicate that the shear zone is late Jurassic to early Cretaceous in age, coeval with the Onon Basin. These new data from eastern Mongolia constitute a link between Transbaikalia and northern China, indicating that NW–SE extensional Mesozoic tectonics occurred throughout the entire region.     

Topological Analysis of Emerging Bipole Clusters Producing Violent Solar Events

During the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24 tremendous activity occurred on the Sun with rapid and compact emergence of magnetic flux leading to bursts of flares (C to M and even X-class). We investigate the violent events occurring in the cluster of two active regions (ARs), NOAA numbers 11121 and 11123, observed in November 2010 with instruments onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory and from Earth. Within one day the total magnetic flux increased by 70 % with the emergence of new groups of bipoles in AR 11123. From all the events on 11 November, we study, in particular, the ones starting at around 07:16 UT in GOES soft X-ray data and the brightenings preceding them. A magnetic-field topological analysis indicates the presence of null points, associated separatrices, and quasi-separatrix layers (QSLs) where magnetic reconnection is prone to occur. The presence of null points is confirmed by a linear and a non-linear force-free magnetic-field model. Their locations and general characteristics are similar in both modelling approaches, which supports their robustness. However, in order to explain the full extension of the analysed event brightenings, which are not restricted to the photospheric traces of the null separatrices, we compute the locations of QSLs. Based on this more complete topological analysis, we propose a scenario to explain the origin of a low-energy event preceding a filament eruption, which is accompanied by a two-ribbon flare, and a consecutive confined flare in AR 11123. The results of our topology computation can also explain the locations of flare ribbons in two other events, one preceding and one following the ones at 07:16 UT. Finally, this study provides further examples where flare-ribbon locations can be explained when compared to QSLs and only, partially, when using separatrices.     

THz photometers for solar flare observations from space

The search for the still unrevealed spectral shape of the mysterious THz solar flare emissions is one of the current most challenging research issues. The concept, fabrication and performance of a double THz photometer system, named SOLAR-T, is presented. Its innovative optical setup allows observations of the full solar disk and the detection of small burst transients at the same time. The detecting system was constructed to observe solar flare THz emissions on board of stratospheric balloons. The system has been integrated to data acquisition and telemetry modules for this application. SOLAR-T uses two Golay cell detectors preceded by low-pass filters made of rough surface primary mirrors and membranes, 3 and 7 THz band-pass filters, and choppers. Its photometers can detect small solar bursts (tens of solar flux units) with sub second time resolution. Tests have been conducted to confirm the entire system performance, on ambient and low pressure and temperature conditions. An artificial Sun setup was developed to simulate performance on actual observations. The experiment is planned to be on board of two long-duration stratospheric balloon flights over Antarctica and Russia in 2014–2016.     

Phase differences between irradiance and velocity low degree solar acoustic modes revisited

Since 1984, simultaneous observations of irradiance and velocity solar acoustic modes, have been carried out by several authors in order to measure the phase difference between irradiance and velocity modes. Following the earliest observations with stratospheric balloon (Frolich and van Der Raay, 1984), a two ground-based stations (Tenerife and Baja California) were established (Jimenez et al, 1990) obtaining coherence results in the frequency range from 2.5 mHz to 4.3 mHz. These phase differences between irradiance and velocity solar acoustic modes are interpreted in terms of the non-adiabatic behaviour of the solar atmosphere. In 1988 the IPHIR (Frolich et al, 1988) instrument flown on the PHOBOS-2 mission to Mars and measured the solar irradiance during 150 consecutive days. The best velocity observations obtained in Tenerife for this period were compared with IPHIR data to compute the phase differences (Schrijver et al, 1991). The final conclusion is that good agreement is attained between space quadsi-space and ground observations which yield a phase diffenrece of about -125 degrees in the frequency range 2.5 mHz to 4.2 mHz, with a slight increase suggested by the data running up to 4.6 mHz.     

Observed interstellar magnetized supershells and stellar-wind theories

Early theories of stellar winds from an association of OB stars predicted the formation of a common superbubble enclosed by athin, dense supershell, through the combined effort of the winds from the stars at the center. These early theories were adequate for explaining the primary observational features (defined as: shell age, outer radius, shell speed, shell mass, shell energy), but they were not adequate to explain the secondary features (defined as: shell thickness, shell magnetic field, shell gas density). A recently published theory for a stellar-wind-bubble and supershell, predicting a range ofthick supershells, can now be compared with the secondary observational features.Using the observed parameters from all large (> 100 pc) interstellar magnetized supershells near the sun (< 1 kpc away), I assemble for comparison with stellar-wind theories: (a) the primary observational features of these shells — I find: large shell age, large outer radius, low shell speed, large shell mass, large shell energy; and (b) some of their secondary observational features — I find: thick shell, low shell magnetic field strengh, low shell gas density.