It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

Theoretical constraints to gully erosion research: time for a re‐evaluation of concepts and assumptions?

Gullies are conceptualized in the literature as essentially fluvial forms with dimensional boundaries arbitrarily defined between rills and river channels. This notion is incompatible with the existing variability of form and process, as mass movements frequently exert a fundamental control on gully initiation and expansion, to the point of features outgrowing their original contributing area. The inability of a conceptual framework to incorporate existing observations inevitably constrains methodologies and research results. In this commentary, several examples of published results are contrasted with the prevailing assumption of an essentially fluvial nature, with the purpose of encouraging discussion on the need for a revised conceptual framework in gully erosion research. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic impedance of foundation: Impact of the seismic design on uncertain soils

In the linear seismic design of buildings, the (deterministic) substructure method is a customary and efficient approach. However, the existence of spatial variability in the parameters of the mechanical model of the soil, as well as parametric errors, calls for the use of probabilistic approaches in order to provide a reliable design of the structure. The construction of probabilistic models of the soil impedance matrix provides a natural path to such approaches within the context of the substructure method. Two main techniques are described in this paper: a parametric one, typically using the stochastic finite element method, and a nonparametric one, which was introduced more recently. The latter is explored more specifically, and the possibilities it offers in terms of seismic design are presented. In particular, it is shown that it allows for the estimation of quantiles of the quantities of interest, rather than confidence intervals, which lead to highly conservative design. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simple formulas for the dynamic stiffness of pile groups

Simple formulas are derived for the dynamic stiffness of pile group foundations subjected to horizontal and rocking dynamic loads. The formulations are based on the construction of a general model of impedance matrices as the condensation of matrices of mass, damping, and stiffness, and on the identification of the values of these matrices on an extensive database of numerical experiments computed using coupled finite element–boundary element models. The formulations obtained can be readily used for the design of both floating piles on homogeneous half‐space and end‐bearing piles and are applicable for a wide range of mechanical and geometrical parameters of the soil and piles, in particular for large pile groups. For the seismic design of a building, the use of the simple formulas rather than a full computational model is shown to induce little error on the evaluation of the response spectra and time histories. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combination Scattering by Anisotropic Langmuir Turbulence with Application to Solar Radar Experiments

We develop a theory for radar signal scattering by anisotropic Langmuir turbulence in the solar corona due to a t+l ⇄ t process. Langmuir turbulence is assumed to be generated within a cone by a narrow type III burst electron beam. Using wave-kinetic theory we obtain expressions for the frequency shift, scattering cross-section of the turbulence, coefficient of absorption (due to scattering) and optical depth. On the basis of those expressions we give some estimates for an echo spectrum. We show that the minimum radar echo frequency shift is determined by the minimal phase velocity of the Langmuir waves, the maximum shift is determined by the electron beam velocity, but in any case it can not exceed −wt/2 (decay) and wt (coalescence), where wt is the frequency of a radar signal. The angular characteristics of the scattered signal differ dramatically for the cases of coalescence and decay. The signal is scattered into a narrow cone high above the specular reflection point (wp ≪ wt), but in the vicinity of wp ∼ wt/2 the red-shifted echo is scattered isotropically, while the blue-shifted echo is scattered into a even narrower cone. We show that absorption (due to scattering) increases with increasing radar frequency. The dependence of the absorption on the local plasma frequency is strongly determined by the Langmuir turbulence spectrum. Our theory shows that the role of the nonlinear scattering process t+l ⇄ t is essential and that such process can be used for radar studies of the spectral energy density of anisotropic Langmuir turbulence.     

Temporal and spatial variation of soil erosion in wooded rangelands of southwest Spain

Changes in land use are common in Mediterranean areas and are reported as having produced changes in the intensity of soil erosion. Dehesas are rangelands with a disperse tree cover, widespread in the south-western part of the Iberian Peninsula and similar ecosystems are also common in other areas with a Mediterranean climate. The aim of the present study is to analyse temporal and spatial variations of soil erosion rates estimated along three hillsides, located in two farms (Buitrera and Parapuños) in southwest Spain. To understand the temporal variation, soil erosion rates were studied in light of land use-management changes that took place during the last few centuries. Results indicate very low erosion rates prior to the 18^th century in both farms. In Buitrera, a first increase of soil loss rates was identified during the period 1831-1897, amounting to 7.4 t ha^-1 y^-1. A further increase took place during the 20^th century, reaching a mean erosion rate of 29.1 t ha^-1 y^-1. In Parapuños, data points to a significant increase from 1881 onwards, with an estimated mean erosion rate of 18.5 t ha^-1 y^-1. Those increases were presumably connected with an intensification of land use, such as cultivation and excessive livestock populations. Regarding spatial variation, the bare surface and the erosive power of run-off along the hillsides accounts for 76% of the soil erosion rates dispersion. At a local scale, the variability of erosion rates could not be explained, because of (i) uncertainty related to the micromorphology of the past soil surface and (ii) the role of tillage erosion in the past. However, the results obtained offer valuable data on the temporal and spatial variation of erosion rates in dehesas at the hillslope scale and a similar approach could be used for other rangelands with a disperse tree cover. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Indirect unstructured hex-dominant mesh generation using tetrahedra recombination

Corner-point gridding is widely used in reservoir and basin modeling but generally yields approximations in the representation of geological interfaces. This paper introduces an indirect method to generate a hex-dominant mesh conformal to 3D geological surfaces and well paths suitable for finite-element and control-volume finite-element simulations. By indirect, we mean that the method first generates an unstructured tetrahedral mesh whose tetrahedra are then merged into primitives (hexahedra, prisms, and pyramids). More specifically, we focus on determining the optimal set of primitives that can be recombined from a given tetrahedral mesh. First, we detect in the tetrahedral mesh all the feasible volumetric primitives using a pattern-matching algorithm (Meshkat and Talmor Int. J. Numer. Meth. Eng. 49(1-2), 17–30 2000) that we re-visit and extend with configurations that account for degenerated tetrahedra (slivers). Then, we observe that selecting the optimal set of primitives among the feasible ones can be formalized as a maximum weighted independent set problem (Bomze et al. 1999), known to be \(\mathcal {N}\mathcal {P}\)-Complete. We propose several heuristic optimizations to find a reasonable set of primitives in a practical time. All the tetrahedra of each selected primitive are then merged to build the final unstructured hex-dominant mesh. This method is demonstrated on 3D geological models including a faulted and folded model and a discrete fracture network.     

European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.     

Ground motion characterization and seismic hazard assessment in Spain: context,problems and recent developments

This article points out some particular features conditioning seismic hazard assessments (SHA) in Spain, a region with low–moderate seismicity. Although sized earthquakes occurred in the past, as evidenced by historical documents and neotectonic studies, no large events occurred during the last decades. The absence of strong motion records corresponding to earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.5 is an important obstacle for the development of ground motion models constrained by local data, with the consequent difficulty in SHA studies. In this paper, some recent developments aiming at providing solutions to these difficulties are presented. Specifically, a strong motion databank containing a massive collection of accelerograms and response spectra from different configurations source-path-site corresponding to earthquakes all over the world is introduced, together with software utilities for its management. A first application of this databank is the development of specific ground motion models for Spain and for the Mediterranean region that predict peak ground accelerations as a function of several definitions of magnitude, distance and soil class. The predictive power of these ground motion models is tested by contrasting their estimates with recently recorded ground motions. The comparison between our ground-motion models with others proposed in the literature for other areas reveals a regular overestimation of the expected ground motions at Spanish sites by the non-local models. Consequently, SHA studies based in external models may overestimate the predicted hazard at the Iberian sites. In the last part of the paper a method for checking whether the response spectra proposed in the Spanish Building Code (NCSE-02) are consistent with actual accelerometric data from recent low magnitude earthquakes is applied. The spectral shapes of the Spanish Building Code NCSE-02 are compared with the response spectral shapes deduced from the available accelerograms by normalising the response spectra with the recorded PGA. It is appreciated that the NCSE-02 spectral shapes are exceeded by a large number of actual spectral shapes for short periods (around 0.2 s), a result to be taken into account in further revisions of the NCSE-02 code. The issues tackled in this work constitute not only an improvement for ground-motion characterisation in Spain, but also provide guidelines of general interest for potential applications in other regions with similar seismicity.