The once and future pulse of Indian monsoonal climate

We present a comprehensive assessment of the present and expected future pulse of the Indian monsoon climate based on observational and global climate model projections. The analysis supports the view that seasonal Indian monsoon rains in the latter half of the 21th century may not be materially different in abundance to that experienced today although their intensity and duration of wet and dry spells may change appreciably. Such an assessment comes with considerable uncertainty. With regard to temperature, however, we find that the Indian temperatures during the late 21st Century will very likely exceed the highest values experienced in the 130-year instrumental record of Indian data. This assessment comes with higher confidence than for rainfall because of the large spatial scale driving the thermal response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing. We also find that monsoon climate changes, especially temperature, could heighten human and crop mortality posing a socio-economic threat to the Indian subcontinent.     

Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis

Though most hurricane evacuation studies have focused on residents, tourists are also a vulnerable population. To assess their perceptions of risk and evacuation likelihood under different hurricane conditions, we surveyed 448 tourists visiting central Florida. Respondents viewed four maps emulating track forecast cones produced by the National Hurricane Center and text information featuring variations of storm intensity, coast of landfall, centerline position relative to the survey site, time until landfall, and event duration. We performed chi-square tests to determine which hurricane conditions, and aspects of tourists such as their demographics and previous hurricane experience, most likely influenced their ratings of risk and evacuation likelihood for respondents located on Pinellas County beaches or inland near Orlando, FL. Highly rated scenarios featured a Category 4 hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast with the centerline passing over the sampling site. Overall, tourists that indicated the highest risk and evacuation ratings were not previously affected by a hurricane, had a trip duration of less than 6 days, and had checked for the possibility of a hurricane strike before departure. However, results for other tourist attributes differed between tourists in coastal and inland locations. We found that although somewhat knowledgeable about hurricanes, tourists misinterpreted the track forecast cone and hurricane conditions, which led to a lower perception of risk and subsequent likelihood to evacuate. Tourists, particularly those from outside of Florida, need to be better educated about the risks they face from hurricanes that make landfall.     

A priori testing of sparse adaptive polynomial chaos expansions using an ocean general circulation model database

This work explores the implementation of an adaptive strategy to design sparse ensembles of oceanic simulations suitable for constructing polynomial chaos surrogates. We use a recently developed pseudo-spectral algorithm that is based on a direct application of the Smolyak sparse grid formula and that allows the use of arbitrary admissible sparse grids. The adaptive algorithm is tested using an existing simulation database of the oceanic response to Hurricane Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico. The a priori tests demonstrate that sparse and adaptive pseudo-spectral constructions lead to substantial savings over isotropic sparse sampling in the present setting.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987112001478

REE composition of the carbonates of the auriferous quartz carbonate veins (QCVs) of the Neoarchean Ajjanahalli gold deposit, Chitradurga schist belt, Dharwar Craton, is characterized by U-shaped chondrite normalized REE patterns with both LREE and HREE enrichment and a distinct positive Eu anomaly. As positive Eu anomaly is associated with low oxygen fugacity, we propose that the auriferous fluids responsible for gold mineralization at Ajjanahalli could be from an oxygen depleted fluid. The observed positive Eu anomaly is interpreted to suggest the derivation of the auriferous fluids from a mantle reservoir. The location of Ajjanahalli gold deposit in a crustal scale shear zone is consistent with this interpretation.     

Class Separability Analysis and Classifier Comparison using Quad-polarization Radar Imagery

The potential of quad polarization radar data for the target discrimination has been analyzed. Quad polarization data of the RADARSAT-2 fine resolution mode has been utilized. Class separability analysis has been carried out on different polarization combinations using Transformed Divergence (TD) method and it is observed that HH-HV/VH-VV polarization combination gives better class separability when compared to other polarization combinations. Classification has been carried out on the optimized polarization combination using Maximum likelihood (MLC) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers. It is observed that SVM classification gives better classification accuracy compared to MLC. Overall classification accuracy is 93.03% for SVM and 88.78% for MLC. Class separability and classification accuracy comparison results are presented.     

A process-based approach to attribution of historical streamflow decline in a data-scarce and human-dominated watershed

Human activities have resulted in rapid hydrological change around the world, in many cases producing shifts in the dominant hydrological processes, confounding predictions, and complicating effective management and planning. Identifying and characterizing such changes in hydrological processes is therefore a globally relevant problem, one that is particularly challenging in sparsely monitored environments. We develop a novel, process-based approach for attribution of hydrological change in such scenarios and apply the approach to the TG Halli watershed outside Bangalore, India, where streamflow has declined considerably over the last 50 years. The approach consists of (a) employing a range of field instrumentation and experiments to identify contemporary streamflow generation mechanisms, (b) using these observations to constrain our understanding and generate hypotheses pertaining to historical changes, and (c) evaluating these hypotheses with a range of evidence including proxies for historical hydrological processes. The body of evidence in the TG Halli watershed indicates the historical presence and subsequent loss of a shallow groundwater table that previously discharged to the stream, meaning that groundwater depletion is the most likely driver of streamflow decline. These findings present a viable path towards improved predictions of future water resources and sustainable water management within the watershed. Our process-based approach to attribution has the potential to improve understanding of human-driven hydrological change in regions with poor monitoring of hydrological systems.     

Accuracy of grid precipitation data for Brazil: application in river discharge modelling of the Tocantins catchment

Here, we compared grid precipitation data — Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA‐Interim (WFDEI) data — with Brazilian Weather Bureau (INMET) and Brazilian Water Agency (ANA) rain gauge data (n = 2027) for the period 1980–2010 in order to evaluate which grid data set better represents precipitation, and is thus more suitable for hydrological modelling of Brazilian water resources. We found that WFDEI outperformed CFSR according to three statistical indicators. We then applied and interpolated a simple bias correction to further improve WFDEI data before we used these data to model river discharge of the Tocantins catchment with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Calibration (validation in parentheses; weighted averages of all gauges) had satisfactory statistical metrics: p‐factor = 0.52 (0.47); r‐factor = 0.84 (0.99); R² = 0.78 (0.71); bR² = 0.68 (0.47); NS = 0.70 (0.66); Pbias = ?4.5 (4.0). Finally, the calibrated SWAT model was used to assess the spatial distribution of the catchment's water resources. Annual green water flow (evapotranspiration) increased from the south‐east (640–840 mm yr^?1) to north‐west (1140–1440 mm) of the Tocantins catchment, while green water storage (soil water content) increased from south (330–1070 mm) to north (2180–3290 mm). Blue water (water yield) had a less clear pattern, with lower values in the south and the central borders of the catchment (20–560 mm) and higher values along the central axis and the north (920–1460 mm). Our analysis suggested that WFDEI was an accurate representation of Brazilian precipitation. For large catchments, we therefore recommend the use of WFDEI instead of sparse and often missing rain gauge data in modelling Brazilian water resources. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved simulation of river water and groundwater exchange in an alluvial plain using the SWAT model

Hydrological interaction between surface and subsurface water systems has a significant impact on water quality, ecosystems and biogeochemistry cycling of both systems. Distributed models have been developed to simulate this function, but they require detailed spatial inputs and extensive computation time. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is a semi‐distributed model that has been successfully applied around the world. However, it has not been able to simulate the two‐way exchanges between surface water and groundwater. In this study, the SWAT‐landscape unit (LU) model – based on a catena method that routes flow across three LUs (the divide, the hillslope and the valley) – was modified and applied in the floodplain of the Garonne River. The modified model was called SWAT‐LUD. Darcy's equation was applied to simulate groundwater flow. The algorithm for surface water‐level simulation during flooding periods was modified, and the influence of flooding on groundwater levels was added to the model. Chloride was chosen as a conservative tracer to test simulated water exchanges. The simulated water exchange quantity from SWAT‐LUD was compared with the output of a two‐dimensional distributed model, surface–subsurface water exchange model. The results showed that simulated groundwater levels in the LU adjoining the river matched the observed data very well. Additionally, SWAT‐LUD model was able to reflect the actual water exchange between the river and the aquifer. It showed that river water discharge has a significant influence on the surface–groundwater exchanges. The main water flow direction in the river/groundwater interface was from groundwater to river; water that flowed in this direction accounted for 65% of the total exchanged water volume. The water mixing occurs mainly during high hydraulic periods. Flooded water was important for the surface–subsurface water exchange process; it accounted for 69% of total water that flowed from the river to the aquifer. The new module also provides the option of simulating pollution transfer occurring at the river/groundwater interface at the catchment scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.