The effect of variation in sea-surface temperature and its meridional gradient on the equatorial and off-equatorial ITCZ in an Aquaplanet General Circulation model

Summary The factors that control the strength of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) in an aquaplanet GCM (General Circulation Model) have been investigated. The strength of the equatorial ITCZ was found to increase rapidly with increase in meridional gradient of SST. On the other hand, the strength of the off-equatorial ITCZ does not increase rapidly with increase in meridional gradient of SST. This unusual difference in behavior between off-equatorial and equatorial ITCZ has been interpreted with a diagnostic model. The diagnostic model is based on budgets of moisture and dry static energy in the ITCZ. The diagnostic model indicates that the variations in the strength of the ITCZ are related to changes in the net energy convergence and vertical moist static stability. It was found that the net energy convergence in the off-equatorial ITCZ increases much less rapidly with meridional SST gradient than the equatorial counterpart. This difference in the behavior of net energy convergence is related to the surface wind speed which in the off-equatorial ITCZ simulation is largely insensitive to changes in the meridional SST gradient. Thus the primary difference between the equatorial and off-equatorial ITCZ is on account of the fact that wind speeds were lower in the former (on account of the constraint that zonal wind has to be zero at the equator). The impact of increasing the SST maximum on the strength of the ITCZ has also been studied. It was found that the strength of ITCZ increases with an increase in SST maximum. This increase in the strength of the ITCZ with the maximum SST is governed by the increase in boundary layer specific humidity and its impact on vertical moist static stability.     

Comparative study of performance of different weather forecast models at specific sites in northwest Himalaya in India

Independent test results of four different weather forecast models [climatological, persistence, analogue, and regional mesoscale weather simulation (MM5) model] have been compared for four past winters (winter 2003–2004 to winter 2006–2007) for qualitative weather (snow day/no snow day) and quantitative categorical snowfall prediction at six different areas in northwest Himalaya (NW-Himalaya) in India. Weather forecast guidance provided by the MM5 model at 10 km resolution was taken for the study. Test results of MM5 and the analogue model were compared for a limited number of days (with irregular gaps) due to lack of availability of MM5 weather forecast guidance for complete winter periods. Forecasts based on the persistence, climatological, and analogue models were compared for day 1 predictions only. Performance of the analogue model for qualitative weather prediction was found to be comparable to that of the MM5 model for day 1 prediction. However, for day 2 and day 3, performance of the MM5 model was found to be marginally better than that of the analogue model. Marginal difference in overall accuracy of the analogue and MM5 models was found for quantitative categorical snowfall prediction for day 3. The quantitative categorical snowfall forecast error of the MM5 model was found to be greater than that for the analogue model for all three days. Comparative study of the performance of the climatological, persistence, and analogue models showed that the analogue model performs better than the persistence and climatological models for day 1 predictions. The results of this study suggest that the analogue model shows some capability for weather prediction and, along with the MM5 model, could be a useful tool for weather forecasters. Comparative study of the performance of the MM5 model at high resolution (about 2–3 km) and the analogue model for complete winter period may provide some interesting and fruitful results.     

Comparison of seasonal and intraseasonal variation of tropical climate in NCAR CCM2 GCM with two different cumulus schemes

Summary The seasonal and intraseasonal variation of tropical climate in National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 2 (CCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) has been examined using two different cumulus parameterization schemes, the moist convective adjustment scheme of Manabe et al. (1965) and the mass-flux scheme of Hack (1994). Ten-year simulations have been undertaken with each of these schemes with SST prescribed according to the monthly mean climatology. The seasonal mean rainfall in the tropics simulated by the moist convective adjustment scheme (MCA) scheme was found to be more realistic than the mass-flux (Hack) scheme. The more realistic simulation by the MCA scheme was found to be on account of the fact that the mean moist static energy of the lower troposphere in the MCA scheme was closer to the observations than in the Hack scheme. In both the schemes, the precipitation in the tropics increases montonically with precipitable water vapour when the precipitable water vapour is above 40 mm. This is consistent with relationship between precipitation and precipitable water in the observations. The Hack scheme tends to simulate lower precipitation (for a given amount of precipitable water) when compared to observations. The MCA scheme simulates the eastward migration of convective systems along the equator quite well, although the speed of propagation is somewhat low. The poleward migration of convective systems in the Indian region is more realistically simulated by the MCA scheme than the Hack scheme. This is because the latitudinal gradient of the mean moist static energy in the MCA scheme is more realistic than in the Hack scheme. Over most of the tropics, simulation by the MCA scheme is more realistic on both seasonal and intraseasonal timescales. Received November 1, 2000 Revised June 20, 2001     

A study of vertical cloud structure of the Indian summer monsoon using CloudSat data

Precise specification of the vertical distribution of cloud optical properties is important to reduce the uncertainty in quantifying the radiative impacts of clouds. The new global observations of vertical profiles of clouds from the CloudSat mission provide opportunities to describe cloud structures and to improve parameterization of clouds in the weather and climate prediction models. In this study, four years (2007–2010) of observations of vertical structure of clouds from the CloudSat cloud profiling radar have been used to document the mean vertical structure of clouds associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its intra-seasonal variability. Active and break monsoon spells associated with the intra-seasonal variability of ISM have been identified by an objective criterion. For the present analysis, we considered CloudSat derived column integrated cloud liquid and ice water, and vertically profiles of cloud liquid and ice water content. Over the South Asian monsoon region, deep convective clouds with large vertical extent (up to 14 km) and large values of cloud water and ice content are observed over the north Bay of Bengal. Deep clouds with large ice water content are also observed over north Arabian Sea and adjoining northwest India, along the west coast of India and the south equatorial Indian Ocean. The active monsoon spells are characterized by enhanced deep convection over the Bay of Bengal, west coast of India and northeast Arabian Sea and suppressed convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the Bay of Bengal, cloud liquid water content and ice water content is enhanced by ~90 and ~200 % respectively during the active spells. An interesting feature associated with the active spell is the vertical tilting structure of positive CLWC and CIWC anomalies over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which suggests a pre-conditioning process for the northward propagation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal variability. It is also observed that during the break spells, clouds are not completely suppressed over central India. Instead, clouds with smaller vertical extent (3–5 km) are observed due to the presence of a heat low type of circulation. The present results will be useful for validating the vertical structure of clouds in weather and climate prediction models.     

Nature of the Moyar and Bhavani shear zones,with a note on its implication on the tectonics of the southern Indian Precambrian shield

The Moyar, Bhavani and Palghat-Cauvery shear zones have figured prominently in tectonic and metamorphic syntheses in the southern Indian Precambrian shield. Implicit in these studies is the assumption that in the Moyar shear zone in particular, transport has a large strike-slip component, with a dextral displacement of as high as 70 km. Detailed structural investigations in several key sectors and reconnaissance over a large terrane cast doubt on several aspects of the accepted tectonic model. Both the Moyar and the Bhavani shear zones are steeply-dipping thrusts, with the Moyar shear in particular characterized by a predominantly dip-slip transport. Such a movement on a subvertical plane striking EW could in no way rotate the northerly ‘trends’ to EW ones as believed by many worker. Further, the Moyar and Bhavani shear zones are neither as extensive nor as pervasive as envisaged. Veering of the ‘trends’ in southern Karnataka, northern Tamil Nadu and northern Kerala is an inherent feature of the superposed fold systems here. Isoclinal folds with axial planes of diverse attitudes, overprinted by upright folds of varying tightness, have resulted in this change in ‘trend’.     

Biodegradation and water washing effect on gasoline range hydrocarbons and quality of crude oils from HJN and MKM fields of upper Assam basin,India

The crude oils from Oligocene and Miocene formation of upper Assam basin have moderate API gravity and significant wax content. Crude oils from HJN and MKM fields of upper Assam basin are being produced from Oligocene and Miocene sands. These oils are somewhat biodegraded in nature as evidenced from their API gravity, density, bulk composition, GC fingerprints and relative concentrations of compounds in the gasoline range. It is observed from whole oil gas chromatographic data that the lighter hydrocarbons are more effected as a result of biodegradation and water washing than the heavier components. In the gasoline range compounds highest degradation of n-alkanes are observed followed by iso- and cyclo- alkanes. The extent of the effect of biodegradation of the gasoline range compounds in crude oil samples cannot be illustrated by the concentrations of the compounds. The concentrations only describe qualitative differences in molecular composition. This difficulty can be overcome by using parameters called degradative loss (%). This parameter shows exactly how much loss or gain has taken place in the gasoline range compounds. Within the gasoline range compounds, n-alkanes, Benzene baring HJN 15 and MKM 14 and Toluene experienced degradative loss indicating effects of both biodegradation and water washing in these oils. Cyclo-alkanes are least effected by biodegradation followed by iso-alkanes in all the oils. The extent of biodegradation and water washing is different for each oils from HJN and MKM fields as indicated by the degradative loss (%) of the compounds in the gasoline range.     

Simulating sub-daily hydrological process with SWAT: a review

ABSTRACT

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed-scale hydrologic model that integrates water quantity and quality modules. Despite the large amount of knowledge on the SWAT model, specific understanding of sub-daily applications remains limited. In this review, we identify the shortcomings and possible ways forward in simulating sub-daily processes with the model. A literature review was conducted, along with a participatory method based on a questionnaire. We reviewed 28 scientific articles and categorized them into: (i) model development, (ii) streamflow methods comparison, (iii) water quality, and (iv) other applications. We found that using sub-daily data improves hydrograph peak simulation, while for medium flows use of daily data was better. From all the reviewed studies, a 1-hour time step was the most suitable time scale for the sub-daily model application. The participatory questionnaire confirmed the hypothesis that the main challenge for using the sub-daily routine was the lack of high-resolution data.     

Estimation of local magnitude of rockbursts using strong motion accelerograms in the mines of Kolar Gold Fields

Rockbursts are minor earthquakes induced due to mining operations. The seismic signals recorded using geophones in the near field are generally saturated and are not suitable for estimating the true magnitudes. The strong-motion accelerograms recorded due to rockbursts are therefore used to obtain the Wood-Anderson synthetic seismograms for getting accurate and reliable values of the local magnitudes. Using several typical strong-motion accelerograms of rockbursts in the mines of Kolar Gold Fields, the magnitudes have been computed in the present study. Correlations of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity with the magnitude, studied for the rockbursts vis-à-vis the natural earthquakes in the Koyna dam area, suggest the mechanical similarity between the two different types of events. The results and findings are described in this paper.     

Calibration and uncertainty analysis of the SWAT model using Genetic Algorithms and Bayesian Model Averaging

In this paper, the Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) were used to simultaneously conduct calibration and uncertainty analysis for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this combined method, several SWAT models with different structures are first selected; next GA is used to calibrate each model using observed streamflow data; finally, BMA is applied to combine the ensemble predictions and provide uncertainty interval estimation. This method was tested in two contrasting basins, the Little River Experimental Basin in Georgia, USA, and the Yellow River Headwater Basin in China. The results obtained in the two case studies show that this combined method can provide deterministic predictions better than or comparable to the best calibrated model using GA. The 66.7% and 90% uncertainty intervals estimated by this method were analyzed. The differences between the percentage of coverage of observations and the corresponding expected coverage percentage are within 10% for both calibration and validation periods in these two test basins. This combined methodology provides a practical and flexible tool to attain reliable deterministic simulation and uncertainty analysis of SWAT.     

Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components,drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran

Water resources availability in the semiarid regions of Iran has experienced severe reduction because of increasing water use and lengthening of dry periods. To better manage this resource, we investigated the impact of climate change on water resources and wheat yield in the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semiarid region of Iran. Future climate scenarios for 2020–2040 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model for scenarios A1B, B1 and A2. We constructed a hydrological model of KRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to project water resources availability. Blue and green water components were modeled with uncertainty ranges for both historic and future data. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2 was used with parallel processing option to calibrate the model based on river discharge and wheat yield. Furthermore, a newly developed program called critical continuous day calculator was used to determine the frequency and length of critical periods for precipitation, maximum temperature and soil moisture. We found that in the northern part of KRB, freshwater availability will increase from 1716 to 2670 m³/capita/year despite an increase of 28% in the population in 2025 in the B1 scenario. In the southern part, where much of the agricultural lands are located, the freshwater availability will on the average decrease by 44%. The long‐term average irrigated wheat yield, however, will increase in the south by 1.2%–21% in different subbasins; but for rain‐fed wheat, this variation is from ?4% to 38%. The results of critical continuous day calculator showed an increase of up to 25% in both frequency and length of dry periods in south Karkheh, whereas increasing flood events could be expected in the northern and western parts of the region. In general, there is variability in the impact of climate change in the region where some areas will experience net negative whereas other areas will experience a net positive impact. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.