Potentialities,uncertainties and complexities in the response of coral reefs to future sea-level rise

Coral islands formed of largely unconsolidated sands only a few metres above sea level are thought to be particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise consequent upon global warming. However, scenarios which predict catastrophic flooding and loss of island area need reassessment, particularly in the light of the continued downwards revision of projected rates of future sea-level rise. Revised questions concern the interactions between reef growth and sea-level change, biophysical constraints on coral growth, and the importance to reef systems of potential changes in the magnitude, frequency and location of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. It is clear that most reefs have the growth potential to meet even the highest of future sea-level rise scenarios, but too little is known about physiological and physical constraints to reef growth to adequately evaluate the importance of these two factors in constraining this potential at the present time. Future sea-level rise in the tropical oceans, and coral reef responses, will take place against a backdrop of inter-regional differences in Holocene sea levels, resulting from the varying interaction of eustatic and hydro-isostatic processes. These differences have generated varying constraints on the development of modern reefs and varying inherited topographies upon which future sea-level changes will be superimposed. These controls are particularly important in assessing differences in vulnerability to future sea-level rise for reef islands in the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.     

Mechanical shredding of water hyacinth (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Eichhornia crassipes</Emphasis>): Effects on water quality in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta,California

Management actions to control invasive aquatic species can have significant ecosystem-scale effects. We evaluated the water chemistry and nutrient effects of mechanical shredding to control water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) in an agricultural slough and a tidal wetland on the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California. Shredding was conducted with two types of shredder boats in fall of 2003 and another boat in spring of 2004. Shredding measurably affected water quality, but specific effects varied as a function of shredding site and season. Significant increases were observed for total Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus for all experiments. Dissolved oxygen effects varied by site, decreasing after shredding at the agricultural slough but increasing at the tidal wetland. The increase in dissolved oxygen likely resulted from tidal incursions from the adjacent river. A year-long time series of dissolved oxygen data indicated a negative relationship between hyacinth abundance and dissolved oxygen concentrations. Hyacinth contained similar tissue concentrations of mercury to underlying sediments, suggesting that plant harvesting could aid mercury remediation efforts. Simple mass calculations indicated that Delta-wide shredding operations could cause between 0.1% and 9.6% increases in the overall abundance of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in the Delta water column. Results suggest that local effects of management actions to control invasive aquatic plants will vary widely as a function of site-specific hydrology, but that estuary-wide effects would be limited.     

Long-Term Observations of Isotope Ratio Accuracy and Reproducibility Using Quadrupole ICP-MS

High precision isotope ratio and trace element determination can be achieved with modern quadrupole ICP-MS provided that short and long-term instrument performance is accurately monitored. Here we present results for the isotope ratios ⁶Li/⁷Li, ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁹Sm, ¹⁶⁰Dy/¹⁶¹Dy, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb, ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and ²³⁵U/²³⁸U with which we determined long-term isotope ratio stability of relevance to both trace element and isotope determination. With respect to trace element determination, we first present long-term observations regarding oxide formation rates of Ba and Nd on light REE and heavy REE, as well as Zr on Ag. These showed good correlations and could be used to correct effectively the interference. The efficacy of this correction was demonstrated with analyses of the rock reference material BHVO-2 at both low and high oxide formation rates. Next, we studied the long-term reproducibility of a Dy isotope ratio that was measured to correct for the isobaric interference on Gd. It was found that, regardless of tuning condition, the ratio reproduced very well (0.58% RSD, 1s) and that the estimate of the Gd concentration did not suffer from the large correction (> 10%) caused by the Dy isobar. Long-term reproducibilities of Li, Sm and U isotope ratios, required for accurate mass bias correction when isotopically enriched internal standards of these elements are employed, were measured in the rock reference materials AGV-2 and JA-3 over a time period of up to 3 years. As expected, the Li isotope ratio showed the largest variability (RSD = 7%), but the other two ratios had relative external reproducibilities of only 1.01% (1s, U) and 0.67% (Sm). The mass bias-induced scatter in measurements for Sm and U was so small that the internal standard correction was effective, even for samples with high concentrations of these elements. With regard to Pb-isotope ratio determination, we also present long-term reproducibility for NIST SRM 982, run as an unknown and two accuracy tests for Pb separated from granitoids and from meteorites. It is demonstrated that the obtained ratios, including those involving ²⁰⁴Pb, are accurate relative to MC-ICP-MS determinations and of comparable precision to conventional TIMS analysis. The excellent agreement between all data sets shows the potential of modern quadrupole ICP-MS instrumentation for Pb-isotope determination, particularly for samples with very low Pb content.     

Characterizing Io’s Pele,Tvashtar and Pillan plumes: Lessons learned from Hubble

Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 (HST/WFPC2) images of Io obtained between 1995 and 2007 between 0.24 and 0.42 μm led to the detection of the Pele plume in reflected sunlight in 1995 and 1999; imaging of the Pele plume via absorption of jovian light in 1996 and 1999; detection of the Prometheus-type Pillan plume in reflected sunlight in 1997; and detection of the 2007 Pele-type Tvashtar plume eruption in reflected sunlight and via absorption of jovian light. Based on a detailed analysis of these observations we characterize and compare the gas and dust properties of each of the detected plumes. In each case, the brightness of the plumes in reflected sunlight is less at 0.26 μm than at 0.33 μm. Mie scattering analysis of the wavelength dependence of each plume’s reflectance signature suggests that range of particle sizes within the plumes is quite narrow. Assuming a normal distribution of particle sizes, the range of mean particle sizes is ～0.035–0.12 μm for the 1997 Pillan eruption, ～0.05–0.08 μm for the 1999 Pele and 2007 Tvasthar plumes, and ～0.05–0.11 μm for the 1995 Pele plume, and in each case the standard deviation in the particle size distribution is <15%. The Mie analysis also suggests that the 2007 Tvashtar eruption released ～10⁹ g of sulfur dust, the 1999 Pele eruption released ～10⁹ g of SO₂ dust, the 1997 Pillan eruption released ～10¹⁰ g of SO₂ dust, and the 1995 Pele plume may have released ～10¹⁰ g of SO₂ dust. Analysis of the plume absorption signatures recorded in the F255W filter bandpass (0.24–0.28 μm) indicates that the opacity of the 2007 Tvashtar plume was 2× that of the 1996 and 1999 Pele plume eruptions. While the sulfur dust density estimated for the Tvashtar from the reflected sunlight data could have produced 61% of the observed plume opacity, <10% of the 1999 Pele F255W plume opacity could have resulted from the SO₂ dust detected in the eruption. Accounting for the remaining F255W opacity level of the Pele and Tvasthar plumes based on SO₂ and S₂ gas absorption, the SO₂ and S₂ gas density inferred for each plume is almost equivalent corresponding to ～2–6 × 10¹⁶ cm^?2 and 3–5 × 10¹⁵ cm^?2, respectively, producing SO₂ and S₂ gas resurfacing rates ～0.04–0.2 cm yr^?1 and 0.007–0.01 cm yr^?1; and SO₂ and S₂ gas masses ～1–4 × 10¹⁰ g and ～2–3 × 10⁹ g; for a total dust to gas ratio in the plumes ～10^?1–10^?2. The 2007 Tvashtar plume was detected by HST at ～380 ± 40 km in both reflected sunlight and absorbed jovian light; in 1999, the detected Pele plume altitude was 500 km in absorbed jovian light, but in reflected sunlight the detected height was ～2× lower. Thus, for the 1999 Pele plume, similar to the 1979 Voyager Pele plume observations, the most efficient dust reflections occurred in the region closest to the plume vent. The 0.33–0.42 μm brightness of the 1997 Pillan plume was 10–20× greater than the Pele or Tvashtar plumes, exceeding by a factor of 3 the average brightness levels observed within 200 km of 1979 Loki eruption vent. But, the 0.26 μm brightness of the 1997 Pillan plume in reflected sunlight was significantly lower than would be predicted by the dust scattering model. Presuming that the 0.26 μm brightness of the 1997 Pillan plume was attenuated by the eruption plume’s gas component, then an SO₂ gas density ～3–6 × 10¹⁸ cm^?2 is inferred from the data (for S₂/SO₂ ratios ?4%), comparable to the 0.3–2 × 10¹⁸ cm^?2 SO₂ density detected at Loki in 1979 (Pearl, J.C. et al. [1979]. Nature 280, 755; Lellouch et al., 1992), and producing an SO₂ gas mass ～3–8 × 10¹¹ g and an SO₂ resurfacing rate ～8–23 cm yr^?1. These results confirm the connection between high (?10¹⁷ cm^?2) SO₂ gas content and plumes that scatter strongly at nearly blue wavelengths, and it validates the occurrence of high density SO₂ gas eruptions on Io. Noting that the SO₂ gas content inferred from a spectrum of the 2003 Pillan plume was significantly lower ～2 × 10¹⁶ cm^?2 (Jessup, K.L., Spencer, J., Yelle, R. [2007]. Icarus 192, 24–40); and that the Pillan caldera was flooded with fresh SO₂ frost/slush just prior to the 1997 Pillan plume eruption (Geissler, P., McEwen, A., Phillips, C., Keszthelyi, L., Spencer, J. [2004a]. Icarus 169, 29–64; Phillips, C.B. [2000]. Voyager and Galileo SSI Views of Volcanic Resurfacing on Io and the Search for Geologic Activity at Europa. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of Ariz., Tucson); we propose that the density of SO₂ gas released by this volcano is directly linked to the local SO₂ frost abundance at the time of eruption.     

Evaluation of real-time flash flood forecasts for Haiti during the passage of Hurricane Tomas, November 4–6, 2010

The January 2010 earthquake that devastated Haiti left its population ever more vulnerable to rainfall-induced flash floods. A flash flood guidance system has been implemented to provide real-time information on the potential of small (~70 km²) basins for flash flooding throughout Haiti. This system has components for satellite rainfall ingest and adjustment on the basis of rain gauge information, dynamic soil water deficit estimation, ingest of operational mesoscale model quantitative precipitation forecasts, and estimation of the times of channel flow at bankfull. The result of the system integration is the estimation of the flash flood guidance (FFG) for a given basin and for a given duration. FFG is the amount of rain of a given duration over a small basin that causes minor flooding in the outlet of the basin. Amounts predicted or nowcasted that are higher than the FFG indicate basins with potential for flash flooding. In preparation for Hurricane Tomas’ landfall in early November 2010, the FFG system was used to generate 36-h forecasts of flash flood occurrence based on rainfall forecasts of the nested high-resolution North American Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessment of the forecast flood maps and forecast precipitation indicates the utility and value of the forecasts in understanding the spatial distribution of the expected flooding for mitigation and disaster management. It also highlights the need for explicit uncertainty characterization of forecast risk products due to large uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts on hydrologic basin scales.     

Dynamics of lava flow fronts, Arenal Volcano, Costa Rica

Arenal Volcano has effused basaltic andesite lava flows nearly continuously since September, 1968. The two different kinds of material in flows, lava and lava debris, have different rheologic properties and dynamic behavior. Flow morphology depends on the relationship between the amount and distribution of the lava and the debris, and to a lesser extent the ground morphology.Two main units characterize the flows: the channel zone and the frontal zone. The channel zone consists of two different units, the levées and the channel proper. A velocity profile in the channel shows a maximum value at the plug where the rate of shear is zero, and a velocity gradient increasing outward until, at the levées, the velocity becomes zero. Cooling produces a marked temperature gradient in the flow, leading to the formation of debris by brittle fracture when a critical value of shear rate to viscosity is reached. When the lava supply ceases, much of this debris and part of the lava is left behind after the flow nucleus drains out, forming a collapsed channel.Processes at the frontal zone include levée formation, debris formation, the change in shape of the front, and the choice of the flow path. These processes are controlled primarily by the rheological properties of the lava.Frontal zone dynamics can be understood by fixing the flow front as the point of reference. The lava flows through the channel into the front where it flows out into the levées, thereby increasing the length of the channel and permitting the front to advance. The front shows a relationship of critical height to the yield strength (τ₀) surface tension, and slope; its continued movement is activated by the pressure of the advancing lava in the channel behind. For an ideal flow (isothermal, homogeneous, and isotropic) the ratio of the section of channel proper to the section of levées is calculated and the distance the front will have moved at any time t_x can be determined once the amount of lava available to the front is known. Assuming that the velocity function of the front {G(t)} during the collapsing stage is proportional to the entrance pressure of the lava at the channel-front boundary, an exponential decrease of velocity through time is predicted, which shows good agreement with actual frontal velocity measurements taken on two flows. Local variations in slope have a secondary effect on frontal velocities.Under conditions of constant volume the frontal zone can be considered as a machine that consumes energy brought in by the lava to perform work (front advancement). While the front will use its potential energy to run the process, the velocity at which it occurs is controlled by the activation energy that enters the system as the kinetic energy of the lava flowing into the front. A relation for the energy contribution due to frontal acceleration is also derived. Finally the entrance pressure, that permits the front to deform, is calculated. Its small value confirms that the lava behaves very much like a Bingham plastic.     

An extreme wave event in eastern Yucatán,Mexico: Evidence of a palaeotsunami event during the Mayan times

The Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, has typically been considered a tectonically stable region with little significant seismic activity. The region though, is one that is regularly affected by hurricanes. A detailed survey of ca 100 km of the eastern Yucatán and Cozumel coast identified the presence of ridges containing individual boulders measuring >1 m in length. The boulder ridges reach 5 m in height and their origin is associated with extreme wave event activity. Previously modelled tsunami waves from known seismically active zones in the region (Muertos Thrust Belt and South Caribbean Deformed Belt) are not of sufficient scale in the area of the Yucatán Peninsula to have produced the boulder ridges recorded in this study. The occurrence of hurricanes in this region is more common, but two of the most destructive (Hurricane Gilbert 1988 and Hurricane Wilma 2005) produced coastal waves too small to have created the ridges recorded here. In this paper, a new tsunami model with a source area located on the Motagua/Swan Island Fault System has been generated that indicates a tsunami event may have caused the extreme wave events that resulted in the deposition of the boulder ridges.