A method to estimate intensity occurrence probabilities in low seismic activity regions

The estimation of site intensity occurrence probabilities in low seismic activity regions has been studied from different points of view. However, no method has been definitively established because several problems arise when macroseismic historical data are incomplete and the active zones are not well determined. The purpose of this paper is to present a method that estimates site occurrence probabilities and at the same time measures the uncertainties inherent in these probabilities in low activity regions. The region to be studied is divided into very broad seismic zones. An exponential intensity probability law is adjusted for each zone and the degree of uncertainty in the assumed incompleteness of the catalogue is evaluated for each intensity. These probabilities are used to establish what may be termed ‘prior site occurrence models’. A Bayesian method is used to improve ‘prior models’ and to obtain the ‘posterior site occurrence models’. Epicentre locations are used to recover spatial information lost in the prior broad zoning. This Bayesian correction permits the use of specific attenuation for different events and may take into account, by means of conservative criteria, epicentre location errors. Following Bayesian methods, probabilities are assumed to be random variables and their distribution may be used to estimate the degree of uncertainty arising from (a) the statistical variance of estimators, (b) catalogue incompleteness and (c) mismatch of data to prior assumptions such as Poisson distribution for events and exponential distribution for intensities. The results are maps of probability and uncertainty for each intensity. These maps exhibit better spatial definition than those obtained by means of simple, broad zones. Some results for Catalonia (NE of Iberian Peninsula) are shown.     

3XMM J185246.6+003317 as transient neutron star

We performed an X‐ray timing and spectral analysis of the variable source 3XMM J185246.6+003317 to investigate its physical nature. The data from all observations of 3XMMJ185246.6+003317 conducted by XMM‐Newton EPIC MOS1 and MOS2 with the same instrumental setup in 2004–2009 were reprocessed to form a homogenous data set of solar barycenter corrected photon arrival times and high S/N spectra of 3XMM J185246.6+003317. A Bayesian method for the search, detection, and estimation of the parameters of a periodic signal of unknown shape was employed, as developed by Gregory & Loredo (1992, 1993). The results show that 3XMM J185246.6+003317 is a transient neutron star with the genuine spin‐period of 23.11722 (23.11711–23.11727) s and its derivative of 5.3(0.3–5.5)×10^–11 s s^–1, implying a characteristic age of 7 (6–104) kyr, if the period derivative can be ascribed to the genuine spin‐down rate of the neutron star. The rotational‐phase averaged X‐ray spectra at the different brightness periods can be fitted with a highly absorbed blackbody model with different temperatures. The phase‐folded light curves in different energy bands with high S/N ratio show a double‐peaked profile; the variations depend on time and energy, indicating that radiation emerges from at least two emitting areas. The spectra at the phases corresponding to the maxima in the phase‐folded light curve show different spectral parameters of absorbed blackbody radiation, i.e. the hotter one has a smaller size. The source is detected only from September 2008 to April 2009 with persistently decreasing brightness, but not before, even though it was observed by XMM. Hence, it is a transient neutron star or a binary system hosting it. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Coseismic Three-Dimensional Displacements Determined Using SAR Data: Theory and an Application Test

We present a methodology to construct three-dimensional deformation maps using different parameters that can be extracted using SAR data. We apply the methodology using ENVISAT SAR data before and after the December 26^th, 2003 M_w 6.6 Bam earthquake in Iran to determine spatial quasi-continuous three-dimensional coseismic deformation maps. Two near vertical deformation offset components are computed using Envisat ASAR differential interferometry (DInSAR), while two horizontal deformation offset components are measured using sub-pixel correlation techniques applied to ASAR amplitude images. Using the presented methodology, we combine four unevenly precise independent projections of surface coseismic deformation to obtain the full three-dimensional coseismic deformation field caused by an earthquake. The full 3-D coseismic displacement vector is modeled using elastic deformation models constraining details of the fault geometry and slip distribution at depth. Results from the inversion are interpreted in the framework of the Iranian present-day tectonism. Full exploitation of dense 3-D coseismic surface deformation using SAR data, even for moderate earthquakes, should facilitate distinguishing between different interpretations of the mechanical properties of seismically active areas and within the inherent ambiguity of the geophysical inversion solutions.     

Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500�C2100: 600?years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands

In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005?C2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al. 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500?C2100 at 0.5°?×?0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500?C2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005?C2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system.     

Lithium isotopes in the system Qz-Ms-fluid:An experimental study

The fractionation of lithium isotopes among quartz, muscovite, and a chloride-bearing aqueous fluid has been investigated experimentally at 400°-500°C and 50-100 MPa. Experiments were performed for 15-60 days in cold seal vessels with natural mineral specimens. Lithium was introduced primarily through the fluid, which also contained KCl and HCl. In most runs, the fluid was prepared with the L-SVEC standard (δ⁷Li = 0) and was 1 M in total chloride with K/Li/H = 100/10/1. In two experiments, a ⁶Li spike was employed. The experiments demonstrate that quartz and muscovite are susceptible to pronounced, rapid shifts in Li isotopic composition by diffusion through interaction with a Li-bearing fluid, particularly at 500°C. At 500°C, fractionation factors were determined to be Δ_{quartz-aqueous} ≅ +8 to + 12‰ and Δ_{muscovite-aqueous} ≅ +18 to + 20‰. An intermineral fractionation factor is given by Δ_{muscovite-quartz} ≈ +9‰. At 400°C, the results suggest Δ_{quartz-aqueous} ≈ +4 to + 6‰. The study provides evidence of systematic fractionation in lithium isotopes at the temperatures of some magmatic processes, such as those associated with porphyry-type ore systems and pegmatites.     

Modeling of flowing film concentrators: Part 1. Water split behaviour

A large number of mineral processing equipment employs the basic principles of gravity concentration in a flowing fluid of a few millimetres thick in small open channels where the particles are distributed along the flow height based on their physical properties and the fluid flow characteristics. Fluid flow behaviour and slurry transportation characteristics in open channels have been the research topic for many years in many engineering disciplines. However, the open channels used in the mineral processing industries are different in terms of the size of the channel and the flow velocity used. Understanding of water split behaviour is, therefore, essential in modeling flowing film concentrators. In this paper, an attempt has been made to model the water split behaviour in an inclined open rectangular channel, resembling the actual size and the flow velocity used by the mineral processing industries, based on the Prandtl's mixing length approach.     

Sedimentary facies,production rates and facies models for recent coralline algal gravels,Co. Galway,Ireland

Five sedimentary facies are described from SCUBA diving examination and sampling of Mannin Bay, Ireland. A Bank facies is built up by the unattached coralline algae Lithothamnium corallioides and Phymatolithon calcareum. This autochthonous facies occurs in shallow sheltered environments. In exposed areas a rippled Clean Algal Gravel facies is found composed of coralline and molluscan debris. In intermediate energy areas a Muddy Algal Gravel facies is found with small amounts of live corallines. Sheltered creeks have a Mud facies which is partly carbonate and partly terrigenous. The shallow water coralline algal sediments are overlapped by a Fine Sand facies of mixed biogenic composition. Each facies is characterized by particular phenotypic growth forms of the unattached corallines. Rates of organic calcium carbonate production are obtained which are found to be similar to rates from shallow tropical non-reef environments. The carbonate sediments of Mannin Bay are compared with similar sediments from Kilkerrin Bay. Ireland, from Brittany and from Falmouth Harbour. From these comparisons, facies models are proposed for these carbonate sediments. The major factor controlling facies distribution is coastal morphology. The present day shelf is considered to be too exposed to preserve complete sequences of the shallow water sediments.     

Environmental isotope investigation for the identification of source of springs observed in the hillock on the left flank of Gollaleru Earthen Dam,Andhra Pradesh,India

A hydrometric, hydrochemical and environmental isotopic study was conducted to identify the source and origin of observed springs on the foot of the hillock abutting the left flank of the Gollaleru earthen dam, Nandyal, Andhra Pradesh, India. Water samples (springs, reservoir water and groundwater) in and around the dam area were collected and analyzed for environmental isotopes (\(\updelta ^{18}\!\hbox {O}\), \(\updelta ^{2}\hbox {H}\) and \(^{3}\hbox {H}\)) and hydrochemistry. Reservoir level, spring discharges and physico-chemical parameters (temperature, electrical conductivity, pH, etc.) were monitored in-situ. Isotopic results indicated that the source of springs is from the Owk reservoir and groundwater contribution to the springs is insignificant. Based on hydrometric observations, it is inferred that the springs might be originated from the reservoir level of 209 m amsl. It is found that the lower spring discharges were derived from diffuse sources (seepage) which could be a mixture of reservoir water and the groundwater, while the relatively higher spring discharges were resulted from concentrated sources (leakage) from the reservoir. Thus, the study portraits the usefulness of isotope techniques in understanding the dam seepage/leakage related problems.     

Estimation of meiobenthic nematode diversity by non-specialists

A methodology is presented for the estimation of nematode diversity using Cairns' technique of sequential comparisons. The accuracy and precision of the method are examined and a test presented for the comparison of diversity estimates.