Probabilistic model for eruptions and associated flood events in the Katla caldera,Iceland

Eruptions in the subglacial Katla caldera, South Iceland, release catastrophic jokulhlaups (meltwater floods). The ice surface topography divides the caldera into three drainage sectors (Ko, So and En sectors) that drain onto Myrdalssandur, Solheimasandur and Markarfljot plains, respectively. In historical times, floods from the Ko sector have been dominant, with only two recorded So events. Geological records indicate that floods from the En sector occur every 500–800 years. A probabilistic model for an eruption is formulated in general terms by a stochastic parameter that simulates a series giving the time interval in years between two consecutive events. The model also contains a Markovian matrix that controls the location of the event and thereby what watercourse is hit by the flood. A record of Katla eruptions since the 8th and the 9th century a.d., and geological information of volcanogenic floods towards the west over the last 8,000 years is used to calibrate the model. The model is then used to find the probabilities for floods from the three sectors: Ko, So and En. The simulations predict that the most probable eruption interval for the En sector and the So sector is several times smaller than the average time interval, implying infrequent periods of high activity in these sectors. A correlation is found between the magnitude of eruptions and the following time intervals. Using the statistical approach and considering this magnitude–time interval correlation, the probability of an eruption in Katla volcano is considered to be 20% within the next 10 years. This compares to a probability of 93% if only a simple average is considered. These probabilities do not take account of long-term eruption precursors and should therefore be regarded as minimum values.     

Leaching of viruses and other microorganisms naturally occurring in pig slurry to tile drains on a well-structured loamy field in Denmark

The amount of animal manure used in modern agriculture is increasing due to the increase in global animal production. Pig slurry is known to contain zoonotic bacteria such as E. coli, Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp., and viruses such as hepatitis E virus and group A rotavirus. Coliform bacteria, present in manure, have previously been shown to leach into tile drains. This poses a potential threat to aquatic environments and may also influence the quality of drinking water. As knowledge is especially scarce about the fate of viruses when applied to fields in natural settings, this project sets out to investigate the leaching potential of six different microorganisms: E. coli and Enterococcus spp. (detected by colony assay), somatic coliphages (using plaque assays), and hepatitis E virus, porcine circovirus type 2, and group A rotavirus (by real-time polymerase chain reaction). All six microorganisms leached through the soil entering the tile drains situated at 1-m depth the first day following pig slurry application. The leaching pattern of group A rotavirus differed substantially from the pattern for somatic coliphages, which are otherwise used as indicators for virus contamination. Furthermore, group A rotavirus was detected in monitoring wells at 3.5-m depth up to 2 months after pig slurry application. The detection of viral genomic material in drainage water and shallow groundwater signifies a potential hazard to human health that needs to be investigated further, as water reservoirs used for recreational use and drinking water are potentially contaminated with zoonotic pathogens.     

Distribution of REE and other trace elements between phenocrysts and peralkaline undersaturated magmas, exemplified by rocks from the Gardar igneous province, south Greenland

Partition coefficients for iron-rich olivine and pyroxene, sanidine, nepheline and apatite are reported from peralkaline trachytic to phonolitic dyke rocks and the agpaitic Ilímaussaq intrusion. Partition coefficients for many elements in olivine and pyroxene decrease with increasing peralkalinity and undersaturation of the magma, i.e. with decreasing polymerisation. The REE partition coefficients for olivine and pyroxene also show dependence on the mineral chemistry, i.e. the iron content. Probably due to the larger lattice sites in the iron end-members the heavy REEs enter the small six-coordinated lattice sites with increasing ease as the iron content of the mineral increases. La and Ce partition coefficients for apatite increase with increasing peralkalinity; this condition seems to stabilise a Na-REE-phosphate component in the mineral.     

Correlation of late Holocene terrestrial and marine tephra markers, north Iceland: implications for reservoir age changes

The tephrochronology of the last 3000 years has been investigated in soil sections in north Iceland and in a marine sediment core from the north Icelandic shelf, 50 km offshore. Tephra markers, identified with major element geochemical analysis of volcanic glass shards, serve to correlate the marine and terrestrial records. Hekla 3, the largest Holocene tephra marker from the volcano Hekla, in south Iceland, dated to 2980 years BP, is used as the basal unit in the tephra stratigraphy. AMS ¹⁴C dating of molluscs in the sediment core shows variable deviation from the tephrochronological age model, indicating that the reservoir age of the seawater mass at the coring site has varied with time. A standard marine reservoir correction of 400 ¹⁴C years appears to be reasonable at the present day in the coastal and shelf waters around Iceland, which are dominated by the Irminger Current. However, values over 500 years are observed during the last 3000 years. We suggest that the intervals with increased and variable marine reservoir correction reflect incursions of Arctic water masses derived from the East Greenland Current to the area north of Iceland.     

The frequency and distribution of recent landslides in three montane tropical regions of Puerto Rico

Landslides are common in steep mountainous areas of Puerto Rico where mean annual rainfall and the frequency of intense storms are high. Each year, landslides cause extensive damage to property and occasionally result in loss of life. Average population density is high, 422 people/km², and is increasing. This increase in population density is accompanied by growing stress on the natural environment and physical infrastructure. As a result, human populations are more vulnerable to landslide hazards. The Blanco, Cibuco, and Coamo study areas range in surface area from 276 to 350 km² and represent the climatologic, geographic, and geologic conditions that typify Puerto Rico. Maps of recent landslides developed from 1:20,000-scale aerial photographs, in combination with a computerized geographic information system, were used to evaluate the frequency and distribution of shallow landslides in these areas. Several types of landslides were documented—rainfall-triggered debris flows, shallow soil slips, and slumps were most abundant. Hillslopes in the study area that have been anthropogenically modified, exceed 12° in gradient, are greater than 300 m in elevation, and face the east-northeast, are most prone to landsliding. A set of simplified matrices representing geographic conditions in the three study areas was developed and provides a basis for the estimation of the spatial controls on the frequency of landslides in Puerto Rico. This approach is an example of an analysis of the frequency of landslides that is computationally simple, and therefore, may be easily transferable to other settings.     

A roughness-corrected index of relative bed stability for regional stream surveys

Quantitative regional assessments of streambed sedimentation and its likely causes are hampered because field investigations typically lack the requisite sample size, measurements, or precision for sound geomorphic and statistical interpretation. We adapted an index of relative bed stability (RBS) for data calculated from a national stream survey field protocol to enable general evaluation of bed stability and anthropogenic sedimentation in synoptic ecological surveys. RBS is the ratio of bed surface geometric mean particle diameter (D_gm) divided by estimated critical diameter (D_cbf) at bankfull flow, based on a modified Shield's criterion for incipient motion. Application of RBS to adequately depict bed stability in complex natural streams, however, has been limited because typical calculations of RBS do not explicitly account for reductions in bed shear stress that result from channel form roughness. We modified the index (RBS) to incorporate the reduction in bed shear stress available for sediment transport that results from the hydraulic resistance of large wood and longitudinal irregularities in channel dimensions (“form roughness”). Based on dimensional analysis, we derived an adjustment to bankfull shear stress by multiplying the bankfull hydraulic radius (R_bf) by the one-third power of the ratio of particle-derived resistance to total hydraulic resistance (C_p/C_t)^1/3, where both resistances are empirically based calculations. We computed C_p using a Keulegan equation relating resistance to relative submergence of bed particles. We then derived an empirical equation to predict reach-scale hydraulic resistance C_t from thalweg mean depth, thalweg mean residual depth, and large wood volume based on field dye transit studies, in which total hydraulic resistance C_t was measured over a wide range of natural stream channel complexity, including manipulation of large wood volumes. We tested our estimates of C_t and RBS by applying them to data from a summer low flow probability sample of 104 wadeable stream reaches in the Coastal Ecoregion of Oregon and Washington, USA. Stream discharges calculated using these C_t estimates compared favorably with velocity–area measurements of discharge during summer low flow, and with the range of 1 to 2-year recurrence floods (scaled by drainage area) at U.S.Geological Survey gauged sites in the same region. Log [RBS] ranged from − 4.2 to + 0.98 in the survey region. D_gm ranged from silt to boulders, while estimated bankfull critical diameter, D_cbf, ranged from very fine gravel to large boulders. The median value of D_cbf (adjusted for form roughness influences) averaged 40% (inter quartile range 28 to 59%) of the unadjusted estimate D_cbf. Log[RBS] was consistently negatively related to human disturbances likely to produce excess sediment inputs or hydrologic alteration. Log [RBS] ranged from − 1.9 to + 0.5 in the streams within the lower quartile of human disturbance in their basin and riparian areas and was substantially lower (− 4.2 to − 1.1) in streams within the upper quartile of human disturbance. The synoptic survey methods and designs we used appear adequate to evaluate regional patterns in bed stability and sedimentation and their general relationship to human disturbances. Although the RBS concept also shows promise for evaluating sediment and bed stability in individual streams, our approach is relatively coarse, so site-specific assessments using these rapid field methods might prudently be confined to identifying severe cases of sedimentation or channel alteration. Greater confidence to discern subtle differences in site-specific assessments could be gained by calculating RBS using more precise field measurements of channel slope, bed particle size and bankfull dimensions, and by refining our adjustments for energy loss from channel form roughness.