Uncertainty analysis of flood inundation modelling using GLUE with surrogate models in stochastic sampling

A generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method incorporating moving least squares (MLS) with entropy for stochastic sampling (denoted as GLUE‐MLS‐E) was proposed for uncertainty analysis of flood inundation modelling. The MLS with entropy (MLS‐E) was established according to the pairs of parameters/likelihoods generated from a limited number of direct model executions. It was then applied to approximate the model evaluation to facilitate the target sample acceptance of GLUE during the Monte‐Carlo‐based stochastic simulation process. The results from a case study showed that the proposed GLUE‐MLS‐E method had a comparable performance as GLUE in terms of posterior parameter estimation and predicted confidence intervals; however, it could significantly reduce the computational cost. A comparison to other surrogate models, including MLS, quadratic response surface and artificial neural networks (ANN), revealed that the MLS‐E outperformed others in light of both the predicted confidence interval and the most likely value of water depths. ANN was shown to be a viable alternative, which performed slightly poorer than MLS‐E. The proposed surrogate method in stochastic sampling is of practical significance in computationally expensive problems like flood risk analysis, real‐time forecasting, and simulation‐based engineering design, and has a general applicability in many other numerical simulation fields that requires extensive efforts in uncertainty assessment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New Zealand’s National Landslide Database

A New Zealand Landslide Database has been developed to hold all of New Zealand’s landslide data and provide factual data for use in landslide hazard and risk assessment, including a probabilistic landslide hazard model for New Zealand, which is currently being developed by GNS Science. Design of a national Landslide Database for New Zealand required consideration of existing landslide data stored in a variety of digital formats and future data yet to be collected. Pre-existing landslide datasets were developed and populated with data reflecting the needs of the landslide or hazard project, and the database structures of the time. Bringing these data into a single database required a new structure capable of containing landslide information at a variety of scales and accuracy, with many different attributes. A unified data model was developed to enable the landslide database to be a repository for New Zealand landslides, irrespective of scale and method of capture. Along with landslide locations, the database may contain information on the timing of landslide events, the type of landslide, the triggering event, volume and area data, and impacts (consequences) for each landslide when this information is available. Information from contributing datasets include a variety of sources including aerial photograph interpretation, field reconnaissance and media accounts. There are currently 22,575 landslide records in the database that include point locations, polygons of landslide source and deposit areas, and linear landslide features. Access to all landslide data is provided with a web application accessible via the Internet. This web application has been developed in-house and is based on open-source software such as the underlying relational database (PostGIS) and the map generating Web Map Server (GeoServer). Future work is to develop automated data-upload routines and mobile applications to allow people to report landslides, adopting a consistent framework.     

Leaching of viruses and other microorganisms naturally occurring in pig slurry to tile drains on a well-structured loamy field in Denmark

The amount of animal manure used in modern agriculture is increasing due to the increase in global animal production. Pig slurry is known to contain zoonotic bacteria such as E. coli, Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp., and viruses such as hepatitis E virus and group A rotavirus. Coliform bacteria, present in manure, have previously been shown to leach into tile drains. This poses a potential threat to aquatic environments and may also influence the quality of drinking water. As knowledge is especially scarce about the fate of viruses when applied to fields in natural settings, this project sets out to investigate the leaching potential of six different microorganisms: E. coli and Enterococcus spp. (detected by colony assay), somatic coliphages (using plaque assays), and hepatitis E virus, porcine circovirus type 2, and group A rotavirus (by real-time polymerase chain reaction). All six microorganisms leached through the soil entering the tile drains situated at 1-m depth the first day following pig slurry application. The leaching pattern of group A rotavirus differed substantially from the pattern for somatic coliphages, which are otherwise used as indicators for virus contamination. Furthermore, group A rotavirus was detected in monitoring wells at 3.5-m depth up to 2 months after pig slurry application. The detection of viral genomic material in drainage water and shallow groundwater signifies a potential hazard to human health that needs to be investigated further, as water reservoirs used for recreational use and drinking water are potentially contaminated with zoonotic pathogens.     

Correlation of late Holocene terrestrial and marine tephra markers, north Iceland: implications for reservoir age changes

The tephrochronology of the last 3000 years has been investigated in soil sections in north Iceland and in a marine sediment core from the north Icelandic shelf, 50 km offshore. Tephra markers, identified with major element geochemical analysis of volcanic glass shards, serve to correlate the marine and terrestrial records. Hekla 3, the largest Holocene tephra marker from the volcano Hekla, in south Iceland, dated to 2980 years BP, is used as the basal unit in the tephra stratigraphy. AMS ¹⁴C dating of molluscs in the sediment core shows variable deviation from the tephrochronological age model, indicating that the reservoir age of the seawater mass at the coring site has varied with time. A standard marine reservoir correction of 400 ¹⁴C years appears to be reasonable at the present day in the coastal and shelf waters around Iceland, which are dominated by the Irminger Current. However, values over 500 years are observed during the last 3000 years. We suggest that the intervals with increased and variable marine reservoir correction reflect incursions of Arctic water masses derived from the East Greenland Current to the area north of Iceland.     

Aenigmetites from the Ilímaussaq intrusion, south Greenland: Chemistry and petrological implications

Aenigmatite in the Ilímaussaq intrusion shows a variety of textural relations to the other mafic minerals and an unusual range in chemical compositions. The saturated and oversaturated rocks contain zoned aenigmatities with Ca, Al, Fe²⁺-rich cores coexisting with katophorite, and near-ideal Ti-aenigmatite rims coexisting with arfvedsonite and aegirine. The aenigmatite substitutions are outlined, and the varying chemistry discussed. A no-oxide field seems to have existed in the (log f_O2, T) space for the undersaturated magma, and an arfvedsonite-aenigmatite oxygen buffer equilibrium is suggested for the coexisting Fe³⁺-rich aenigmatite and katophorite. This buffer was later invalidated by the stabilisation of aegirine, whereby the Fe³⁺-aenigmatite component broke down, causing extensive recrystallisation into near-ideal Ti-aenigmatite.     

Distribution of REE and other trace elements between phenocrysts and peralkaline undersaturated magmas, exemplified by rocks from the Gardar igneous province, south Greenland

Partition coefficients for iron-rich olivine and pyroxene, sanidine, nepheline and apatite are reported from peralkaline trachytic to phonolitic dyke rocks and the agpaitic Ilímaussaq intrusion. Partition coefficients for many elements in olivine and pyroxene decrease with increasing peralkalinity and undersaturation of the magma, i.e. with decreasing polymerisation. The REE partition coefficients for olivine and pyroxene also show dependence on the mineral chemistry, i.e. the iron content. Probably due to the larger lattice sites in the iron end-members the heavy REEs enter the small six-coordinated lattice sites with increasing ease as the iron content of the mineral increases. La and Ce partition coefficients for apatite increase with increasing peralkalinity; this condition seems to stabilise a Na-REE-phosphate component in the mineral.