Diurnal heterogeneity in silicic acid fluxes in shallow coastal sites: Causes and implications

In shallow coastal areas the amplitude and range of benthic silicic acid fluxes can have a significant influence on benthic–pelagic coupling and the functioning of the pelagic system. To explore the oscillation in fluxes over the diurnal cycle and in particular the influence of microphytobenthos (MPB), an experiment was carried out in a shallow subtidal site in the Bay of Brest (France). Benthic chambers were employed over a 48 h period to measure the variability in silicic acid and oxygen fluxes; MPB migration was investigated using a diving Pulse Amplitude Modulated (PAM) fluorometer and uptake rhythms of silicic acid by natural MPB populations were measured using the ³²Si isotope. It was discovered that silicic acid fluxes fluctuated greatly throughout the diurnal period resulting in an oscillation in the availability of this nutrient for phytoplankton communities. The uptake of silicic acid by the MPB was quantified for the first time and highlighted a 2-fold increase in the demand from night to afternoon periods. The combined silicic acid uptake and the concentration of cells at the sediment–water interface, forming a dense biofilm of MPB, were postulated to be the main processes reducing effluxes at midday. Our work highlighted the many processes which influence silicic acid effluxes in shallow coastal areas and the possible interaction between uptake and dissolution processes. The variations in benthic fluxes over the diurnal period were comparable to observations reported at the seasonal scale. Therefore, up-scaling hourly flux observations to daily and annual estimates should be undertaken with caution. Further we suggest that the main processes influencing flux oscillations over the diurnal period should be considered when planning sampling strategies and extrapolating to larger time scales.     

Simulation des changements climatiques au cours du XXIe siècle incluant l'ozone stratosphériqueSimulation of climate changes during the 21st century including stratospheric ozone

Two climate simulations of 150 years, performed with a coupled ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere model including stratospheric ozone, respectively with and without heterogeneous chemistry, simulate the tropospheric warming associated with an increase of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide and other trace gases since 1950 and their impact on sea–ice extent, as well as the stratospheric cooling and its impact on ozone concentration. The scenario with heterogeneous chemistry reproduces the formation of the ozone hole over the South Pole from the 1970s and its deepening until the present time, and shows that the ozone hole should progressively fill during the coming decades. To cite this article: J.-F. Royer et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 147–154.     

Schooling behaviour and environmental forcing in relation to anchoveta distribution: An analysis across multiple spatial scales

The Peruvian anchovy or anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) supports the highest worldwide fishery landings and varies in space and time over many scales. Here we present the first comprehensive sub-mesocale study of anchoveta distribution in relation to the environment. During November 2004, we conducted a behavioural ecology survey off central Peru and used a series of observational and sampling tools including SST and CO₂ sensors, Niskin bottles, CTD probes, zooplankton sampling, stomach content analysis, echo-sounder, multibeam sonar, and bird observations. The sub-mesoscale survey areas were chosen from mesoscale acoustic surveys. A routine coast-wide (2000 km) acoustic survey performed just after the sub-mesoscale surveys, provided information at an even larger population scale. The availability of nearly concurrent sub-mesoscale, mesoscale and coast-wide information on anchoveta distribution allowed for a unique multi-scale synthesis. At the sub-mesoscale (100s m to km) physical processes (internal waves and frontogenesis) concentrated plankton into patches and determined anchoveta spatial distribution. At the mesoscale (10s km) location relative to the zone of active upwelling (and age of the upwelled water) and the depth of the oxycline had strong impacts on the anchoveta. Finally, over 100s km the size of the productive area, as defined by the upwelled cold coastal waters, was the determining factor. We propose a conceptual view of the relative importance of social behaviour and environmental (biotic and abiotic) processes on the spatial distribution of anchoveta. Our ecological space has two y-axis; one based on self-organization (social behaviour), and the other based on the environmental processes. At scales from the individual (10s cm), to the nucleus (m), social behaviour (e.g. the need to school) drives spatial organization. At scales larger than the school, environmental forces are the main driver of fish distribution. The conceptual ecosystem models presented in this paper may provide the final links needed to develop accurate forecasts of the spatial distribution of anchoveta over multiple scales.     

Impacts of Kelvin wave forcing in the Peru Humboldt Current system: Scenarios of spatial reorganizations from physics to fishers

Because climate change challenges the sustainability of important fish populations and the fisheries they support, we need to understand how large scale climatic forcing affects the functioning of marine ecosystems. In the Humboldt Current system (HCS), a main driver of climatic variability is coastally-trapped Kelvin waves (KWs), themselves originating as oceanic equatorial KWs. Here we (i) describe the spatial reorganizations of living organisms in the Humboldt coastal system as affected by oceanic KWs forcing, (ii) quantify the strength of the interactions between the physical and biological component dynamics of the system, (iii) formulate hypotheses on the processes which drive the redistributions of the organisms, and (iv) build scenarios of space occupation in the HCS under varying KW forcing. To address these questions we explore, through bivariate lagged correlations and multivariate statistics, the relationships between time series of oceanic KW amplitude (TAO mooring data and model-resolved baroclinic modes) and coastal Peruvian oceanographic data (SST, coastal upwelled waters extent), anchoveta spatial distribution (mean distance to the coast, spatial concentration of the biomass, mean depth of the schools), and fishing fleet statistics (trip duration, searching duration, number of fishing sets and catch per trip, features of the foraging trajectory as observed by satellite vessel monitoring system). Data sets span all or part of January 1983 to September 2006. The results show that the effects of oceanic KW forcing are significant in all the components of the coastal ecosystem, from oceanography to the behaviour of the top predators – fishers. This result provides evidence for a bottom-up transfer of the behaviours and spatial stucturing through the ecosystem. We propose that contrasting scenarios develop during the passage of upwelling versus downwelling KWs. From a predictive point of view, we show that KW amplitudes observed in the mid-Pacific can be used to forecast which system state will dominate the HCS over the next 2–6 months. Such predictions should be integrated in the Peruvian adaptive fishery management.     

Patterns in the spatial distribution of Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) revealed by spatially explicit fishing data

Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) stock abundance is tightly driven by the high and unpredictable variability of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem. Management of the fishery therefore cannot rely on mid- or long-term management policy alone but needs to be adaptive at relatively short time scales. Regular acoustic surveys are performed on the stock at intervals of 2 to 4 times a year, but there is a need for more time continuous monitoring indicators to ensure that management can respond at suitable time scales. Existing literature suggests that spatially explicit data on the location of fishing activities could be used as a proxy for target stock distribution. Spatially explicit commercial fishing data could therefore guide adaptive management decisions at shorter time scales than is possible through scientific stock surveys. In this study we therefore aim to (1) estimate the position of fishing operations for the entire fleet of Peruvian anchovy purse–seiners using the Peruvian satellite vessel monitoring system (VMS), and (2) quantify the extent to which the distribution of purse–seine sets describes anchovy distribution. To estimate fishing set positions from vessel tracks derived from VMS data we developed a methodology based on artificial neural networks (ANN) trained on a sample of fishing trips with known fishing set positions (exact fishing positions are known for approximately 1.5% of the fleet from an at-sea observer program). The ANN correctly identified 83% of the real fishing sets and largely outperformed comparative linear models. This network is then used to forecast fishing operations for those trips where no observers were onboard. To quantify the extent to which fishing set distribution was correlated to stock distribution we compared three metrics describing features of the distributions (the mean distance to the coast, the total area of distribution, and a clustering index) for concomitant acoustic survey observations and fishing set positions identified from VMS. For two of these metrics (mean distance to the coast and clustering index), fishing and survey data were significantly correlated. We conclude that the location of purse–seine fishing sets yields significant and valuable information on the distribution of the Peruvian anchovy stock and ultimately on its vulnerability to the fishery. For example, a high concentration of sets in the near coastal zone could potentially be used as a warning signal of high levels of stock vulnerability and trigger appropriate management measures aimed at reducing fishing effort.     

Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100

Global aerosol and ozone distributions and their associated radiative forcings were simulated between 1850 and 2100 following a recent historical emission dataset and under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) for the future. These simulations were used in an Earth System Model to account for the changes in both radiatively and chemically active compounds, when simulating the climate evolution. The past negative stratospheric ozone trends result in a negative climate forcing culminating at ?0.15 W m^?2 in the 1990s. In the meantime, the tropospheric ozone burden increase generates a positive climate forcing peaking at 0.41 W m^?2. The future evolution of ozone strongly depends on the RCP scenario considered. In RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, the evolution of both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone generate relatively weak radiative forcing changes until 2060–2070 followed by a relative 30 % decrease in radiative forcing by 2100. In contrast, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 model projections exhibit strongly different ozone radiative forcing trajectories. In the RCP2.6 scenario, both effects (stratospheric ozone, a negative forcing, and tropospheric ozone, a positive forcing) decline towards 1950s values while they both get stronger in the RCP8.5 scenario. Over the twentieth century, the evolution of the total aerosol burden is characterized by a strong increase after World War II until the middle of the 1980s followed by a stabilization during the last decade due to the strong decrease in sulfates in OECD countries since the 1970s. The cooling effects reach their maximal values in 1980, with ?0.34 and ?0.28 W m^?2 respectively for direct and indirect total radiative forcings. According to the RCP scenarios, the aerosol content, after peaking around 2010, is projected to decline strongly and monotonically during the twenty-first century for the RCP8.5, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios. While for RCP6.0 the decline occurs later, after peaking around 2050. As a consequence the relative importance of the total cooling effect of aerosols becomes weaker throughout the twenty-first century compared with the positive forcing of greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, both surface ozone and aerosol content show very different regional features depending on the future scenario considered. Hence, in 2050, surface ozone changes vary between ?12 and +12 ppbv over Asia depending on the RCP projection, whereas the regional direct aerosol radiative forcing can locally exceed ?3 W m^?2.