The West African monsoon onset in 2006: sensitivity to surface albedo, orography, SST and synoptic scale dry-air intrusions using WRF

In order to test the sensitivity of the transitional phase of the 2006 West African monsoon (WAM) onset to different mechanisms, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulations have been carried out addressing the role of the Saharan heat low (SHL) and its sensitivity to the albedo field and to the northern Africa orography, and the role of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean. Lowering albedo over the desert region induces a northward location of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), while removing mountains in North Africa reduces rainfall over West Africa. Shifting SST forward by 15?days leads to a northward location of the ITCZ before the WAM onset. However none of these factors modifies the timing of the WAM onset in 2006. The transitional phase of the 2006 WAM onset has been examined in more detail. The enhancement of SHL intensity, combined with the development of the oceanic cold tongue in the Guinea gulf, leads to low-level moisture flux divergence in the ITCZ reducing rainfall and increasing low-level humidity over the Sahel. However, weakening of convection can be clearly attributed to dry-air intrusions in mid-levels, originating from the subtropical westerly jet and associated with Rossby wave pattern over North Africa. Sensitivity tests on the synoptic scale forcing outside of the WRF model domain confirm the dominating role of large-scale dynamics to control the transitional phase of the WAM onset and its timing. However it is shown that the regional factors can modulate this larger scale forcing.     

The ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and their precursors over the North Atlantic main development region

The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to generate Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR; 10–20°N, 20–80°W; Goldenberg and Shapiro in J Clim 9:1169–1187, 1996) is examined through a subset of ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set and a high-resolution (0.5°) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)-forced simulation from the Australian Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model GCM. The results are compared with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) reanalyses over a common period from 1980 to 1998. Important biases in the representation of the TC activity are encountered over the MDR. This study emphasizes the strong link in the GCMs between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and TC activity in this region. However, the generation of AEWs is not a sufficient condition alone for the models to produce TCs. Precipitation over the Sahel, especially rainfall over the Fouta Djallon highlands (cf. Fig.?1), is playing a role in the generation of TCs over the MDR. The influence of large-scale fields such as SST, vertical wind shear and tropospheric humidity on TC genesis is also examined. The ability of TC genesis indices, such as the Genesis Potential Index and the Convective Yearly Genesis Potential, to represent TC activity over the MDR in simulations at low to high spatial resolutions is analysed. These indices are found to be a reasonable method for comparing cyclogenesis in different models, even though other factors such as AEW activity should also be considered.     

Monitoring and early warning of the 2012 Preonzo catastrophic rockslope failure

In this paper, we describe the investigations and actions taken to reduce risk and prevent casualties from a catastrophic 210,000 m³ rockslope failure, which occurred near the village of Preonzo in the Swiss Alps on May 15, 2012. We describe the geological predisposition and displacement history before and during the accelerated creep stage as well as the development and operation of an efficient early warning system. The failure of May 15, 2012, occurred from a large and retrogressive instability in gneisses and amphibolites with a total volume of about 350,000 m³, which formed an alpine meadow 1250 m above the valley floor. About 140,000 m³ of unstable rock mass remained in place and might collapse partially or completely in the future. The instability showed clearly visible signs of movements along a tension crack since 1989 and accelerated creep with significant hydromechanical forcing since about 2006. Because the active rockslide at Preonzo threatened a large industrial facility and important transport routes located directly at the toe of the slope, an early warning system was installed in 2010. The thresholds for prealarm, general public alarm, and evacuation were derived from crack meter and total station monitoring data covering a period of about 10 years, supplemented with information from past failure events with similar predisposition. These thresholds were successfully applied to evacuate the industrial facility and to close important roads a few days before the catastrophic slope failure of May 15, 2012. The rock slope failure occurred in two events, exposing a compound rupture plane dipping 42° and generating deposits in the midslope portion with a travel angle of 39°. Three hours after the second rockslide, the fresh deposits became reactivated in a devastating debris avalanche that reached the foot of the slope but did not destroy any infrastructure. The final run-out distance of this combined rock collapse–debris avalanche corresponded to the predictions made in the year 2004.     

Quartz Reference Materials for Oxygen Isotope Analysis by SIMS

Two quartz samples of igneous origin, UNIL‐Q1 (Torres del Paine Intrusion, Chile) and BGI‐Q1 (Shandong province, China), were calibrated for their oxygen isotope composition for SIMS measurements. UNIL‐Q1 and BGI‐Q1 were evaluated for homogeneity using SIMS. Their reference δ¹⁸O values were determined by CO₂ laser fluorination. The average δ¹⁸O value found for UNIL‐Q1 is 9.8 ± 0.06‰ and that for BGI‐Q1 is 7.7 ± 0.11‰ (1s). The intermediate measurement precision of SIMS oxygen isotope measurements was 0.32–0.41‰ (2s; UNIL‐Q1) and 0.40–0.48‰ (2s; BGI‐Q1), respectively. While less homogeneous in its oxygen isotope composition, BGI‐Q1 is also suitable for SIMS trace element measurements.     

Effects of inter- and intraspecific competition on growth and development of Bufo viridis and Bufo bufo tadpoles

Competition between the common toad Bufo bufo (L.) and the green toad Bufo viridisLaurenti was studied in an experimental design. Mixed and single-species groups of 40 larvae were reared in plastic tanks (water volume 411). Growth parameters such as body length, total length, body mass and developmental stage according to Gosner (1960) were measured weekly until metamorphic climax and analyzed by regression analysis. Body condition index was calculated. Tadpoles of B. bufo reached metamorphosis at the same time in mixed and single-species treatments. Larvae and toadlets were insignificantly larger in single-species groups, weighed more and had a higher body condition index than in mixed species designs. In B. viridis the larval period was six days shorter in mixed groups; tadpoles and toadlets were smaller but had a higher body condition index than in the single-species treatment. These results indicate high intraspecific competition in B. viridis and competitive inferiority of B. bufo to B. viridis under the experimental conditions.     

Montagne Pelée volcano (Martinique,in the French Lesser Antilles) hydrogeological system revealed by high-resolution helicopter-borne electromagnetic imagery

Montagne Pelée, on the French island of Martinique, eastern Caribbean Sea, has been one of the deadliest volcanoes in the world, with 30,000 victims following the 1902 eruption. Thousands of people still live nearby, and this volcano is a strategic “water tank” for Martinique Island, providing 40% of the island’s water supply. This research aimed to better understand its hydrogeological functioning and the relationship with its complex volcanological evolution, taking advantage of a high-resolution helicopter-borne geophysical survey correlated with hydrogeological data from the boreholes and springs databases. Electromagnetic data, correlated with hydrogeological data, allowed for the identification of unsaturated zones, aquifers, and seawater intrusions, as well as the main geological units. In addition, data synthesised from pumping tests revealed that the older the unconsolidated pyroclastic deposits, the lower their hydraulic conductivity. The structural asymmetry between the northeastern and southwestern volcano flanks impacts its hydrogeological functioning. Consequently, the Montagne Pelée hydrogeological conceptual model is marked by several distinguishable aquifers. The upper perched aquifer within recent lava domes is directly involved in, and impacted by, phreatic eruptions, and it supports low flowrate springs. The remaining effective rainfall infiltrates to depth and recharges the hydrothermal system through vertical fractures. The other aquifers are categorized into three groups: northeastern, southeastern and southwestern flank aquifers. This research is a new step toward a better understanding of the Lesser Antilles volcanoes and more broadly of the central and proximal parts of the andesitic active volcanoes.

     

Comparison of polynomial chaos and Gaussian process surrogates for uncertainty quantification and correlation estimation of spatially distributed open-channel steady flows

Data assimilation is widely used to improve flood forecasting capability, especially through parameter inference requiring statistical information on the uncertain input parameters (upstream discharge, friction coefficient) as well as on the variability of the water level and its sensitivity with respect to the inputs. For particle filter or ensemble Kalman filter, stochastically estimating probability density function and covariance matrices from a Monte Carlo random sampling requires a large ensemble of model evaluations, limiting their use in real-time application. To tackle this issue, fast surrogate models based on polynomial chaos and Gaussian process can be used to represent the spatially distributed water level in place of solving the shallow water equations. This study investigates the use of these surrogates to estimate probability density functions and covariance matrices at a reduced computational cost and without the loss of accuracy, in the perspective of ensemble-based data assimilation. This study focuses on 1-D steady state flow simulated with MASCARET over the Garonne River (South-West France). Results show that both surrogates feature similar performance to the Monte-Carlo random sampling, but for a much smaller computational budget; a few MASCARET simulations (on the order of 10–100) are sufficient to accurately retrieve covariance matrices and probability density functions all along the river, even where the flow dynamic is more complex due to heterogeneous bathymetry. This paves the way for the design of surrogate strategies suitable for representing unsteady open-channel flows in data assimilation.     

Connecting Coronal Mass Ejections to Their Solar Active Region Sources: Combining Results from the HELCATS and FLARECAST Projects

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and other solar eruptive phenomena can be physically linked by combining data from a multitude of ground-based and space-based instruments alongside models; however, this can be challenging for automated operational systems. The EU Framework Package 7 HELCATS project provides catalogues of CME observations and properties from the Heliospheric Imagers on board the two NASA/STEREO spacecraft in order to track the evolution of CMEs in the inner heliosphere. From the main HICAT catalogue of over 2,000 CME detections, an automated algorithm has been developed to connect the CMEs observed by STEREO to any corresponding solar flares and active-region (AR) sources on the solar surface. CME kinematic properties, such as speed and angular width, are compared with AR magnetic field properties, such as magnetic flux, area, and neutral line characteristics. The resulting LOWCAT catalogue is also compared to the extensive AR property database created by the EU Horizon 2020 FLARECAST project, which provides more complex magnetic field parameters derived from vector magnetograms. Initial statistical analysis has been undertaken on the new data to provide insight into the link between flare and CME events, and characteristics of eruptive ARs. Warning thresholds determined from analysis of the evolution of these parameters is shown to be a useful output for operational space weather purposes. Parameters of particular interest for further analysis include total unsigned flux, vertical current, and current helicity. The automated method developed to create the LOWCAT catalogue may also be useful for future efforts to develop operational CME forecasting.