Loading of a seismic zone to failure deforms nearby volcanoes: a new earthquake precursor

The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) was loaded to failure in June 2000, resulting in two M6.6 earthquakes. The SISZ is an E–W‐trending zone with an overall sinistral movement. Numerical models indicate that, when the SISZ is loaded to failure, there are stress concentrations at its ends: tensile in the north‐east and south‐west quadrants, and compressive in the north‐west and south‐east quadrants. These model predictions fit well with observations. Geodetic measurements indicate considerable compression, uplift and associated intense seismicity in recent years in the volcanoes of Hengill and Eyjafjallajokull, located in the quadrants of compression, whereas there have been unusually frequent eruptions in the past decades in the Hekla Volcano, located in one of the quadrants of extension. The models predict that following the large June 2000 earthquakes, stress relaxation within the SISZ should lead to stopping of the intense seismicity and deformation in the volcanoes of Hengill and Eyjafjallajokull, again in agreement with observations. However, when similar episodes of deformation and seismicity start again, particularly in the Hengill Volcano, a large earthquake would be expected within several years in the SISZ. The numerical models, and the deformation and seismic data, indicate that monitoring of ‘soft’ inclusions such as volcanoes (many with magma chambers) in the vicinity of a seismic zone may serve as precursors to large earthquakes.     

Reaching a climate agreement: compensating for energy market effects of climate policy

Because of large economic and environmental asymmetries among world regions and the incentive to free ride, an international climate regime with broad participation is hard to reach. Most of the proposed regimes are based on an allocation of emissions rights that is perceived as fair. Yet, there are also arguments to focus more on the actual welfare implications of different regimes and to focus on a ‘fair’ distribution of resulting costs. In this article, the computable general equilibrium model DART is used to analyse the driving forces of welfare implications in different scenarios in line with the 2?°C target. These include two regimes that are often presumed to be ‘fair’, namely a harmonized international carbon tax and a cap and trade system based on the convergence of per capita emissions rights, and also an ‘equal loss’ scenario where welfare losses relative to a business-as-usual scenario are equal for all major world regions. The main finding is that indirect energy market effects are a major driver of welfare effects and that the ‘equal loss’ scenario would thus require large transfer payments to energy exporters to compensate for welfare losses from lower world energy demand and prices.

Policy relevance

A successful future climate regime requires ‘fair’ burden sharing. Many proposed regimes start from ethical considerations to derive an allocation of emissions reduction requirements or emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme. Yet, countries also consider the expected economic costs of a regime that are also driven by other factors besides allowance allocation. Indeed, in simplified lab experiments, successful groups are characterized by sharing costs proportional to wealth. This article shows that the major drivers of welfare effects are reduced demand for fossil energy and reduced fossil fuel prices, which implies that (1) what is often presumed to be a fair allocation of emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme leads to a very uneven distribution of economic costs and (2) aiming for equal relative losses for all regions requires large compensation to fossil fuel exporters, as argued, for example, by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).     

Winter climate change in alpine tundra: plant responses to changes in snow depth and snowmelt timing

Snow is an important environmental factor in alpine ecosystems, which influences plant phenology, growth and species composition in various ways. With current climate warming, the snow-to-rain ratio is decreasing, and the timing of snowmelt advancing. In a 2-year field experiment above treeline in the Swiss Alps, we investigated how a substantial decrease in snow depth and an earlier snowmelt affect plant phenology, growth, and reproduction of the four most abundant dwarf-shrub species in an alpine tundra community. By advancing the timing when plants started their growing season and thus lost their winter frost hardiness, earlier snowmelt also changed the number of low-temperature events they experienced while frost sensitive. This seemed to outweigh the positive effects of a longer growing season and hence, aboveground growth was reduced after advanced snowmelt in three of the four species studied. Only Loiseleuria procumbens, a specialist of wind exposed sites with little snow, benefited from an advanced snowmelt. We conclude that changes in the snow cover can have a wide range of species-specific effects on alpine tundra plants. Thus, changes in winter climate and snow cover characteristics should be taken into account when predicting climate change effects on alpine ecosystems.     

Origins of non-equilibrium lithium isotopic fractionation in xenolithic peridotite minerals: Examples from Tanzania

Olivine, clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene in variably metasomatised peridotite xenoliths from three lithospheric mantle sections beneath the East African Rift in Tanzania (Lashaine, Olmani, Labait) show systematic differences in their average Li concentrations (2.4 ppm, 2.0 ppm and 1.5 ppm, respectively) and intermineral isotopic fractionations, with olivine being heaviest (δ⁷Li = + 2.3 to + 13.9‰, average + 5.0‰), followed by orthopyroxene (? 4.1 to + 6.5‰, average + 0.8‰) and clinopyroxene (? 6.7 to + 4.1‰, average ? 1.6‰). These features are ascribed to the effects of kinetic Li isotope fractionation combined with different Li diffusivities in mantle minerals.Two main mechanisms likely generate diffusion-driven kinetic Li isotope fractionation in mantle xenoliths (1) Li diffusion from grain boundary melt into minerals during recent metasomatism or entrainment in the host magma and (2) subsolidus intermineral Li-redistribution. The latter can produce both isotopically light (Li-addition) and heavy (Li-loss) minerals and may occur in response to changes in pressure and/or temperature.Modelling shows that non-mantle-like δ⁷Li in clinopyroxene (< + 2‰), combined with apparent equilibrium olivine-clinopyroxene elemental partitioning in most peridotite xenoliths from all three Tanzanian localities probably reflects incipient Li addition during interaction with the host magma. Low δ⁷Li (< ? 3‰), combined with high Li concentrations (> 3 ppm) in some clinopyroxene may require very recent (minutes) Li ingress from a Li-rich melt (100s of ppm) having mantle-like δ⁷Li. This might happen during late fragmentation of some mantle xenoliths caused by a volatile- (and Li-) rich component exsolved from the host basalt. In contrast, high Li concentrations (> 2 ppm) and δ⁷Li (> 4‰) in olivine from many Labait and Olmani samples are attributed to an older, pre-entrainment enrichment event during which isotopic equilibrium was attained and whose signature was not corrupted during xenolith entrainment. Low Li concentrations and mantle-like isotopic composition of olivine from most Lashaine xenoliths indicate limited metasomatic Li addition.Thus, Li concentrations and isotope compositions of mantle peridotites worldwide may reflect two processes, with olivine mainly preserving a signature of depletion in refractory samples (low Li contents and δ⁷Li) or of older (precursory) melt addition in metasomatised samples (high Li contents and δ⁷Li), while non mantle-like, low δ⁷Li in almost all clinopyroxene can be due to Li ingress during transport in the host magma and/or slow cooling, if the samples were erupted in lavas. In Tanzania, the peridotites experienced rift-related heating prior to entrainment and were quenched upon eruption, so Li ingress is the most likely process responsible for the isotopically light clinopyroxene here.     

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply and Flood Hazard in Ireland Using Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modelling Techniques

Estimates are made of changes in effective runoff at a high spatial resolution for the island of Ireland under different climate change scenarios. The first part of the investigation examines changes in annual and seasonal effective runoff for the whole land area of Ireland. The rainfall-runoff model HYSIM is used to carry out the hydrological simulations. The output from the HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) is downscaled using statistical techniques to provide precipitation and evaporation data at a 10 km × 10 km resolution; this data is then used to drive the HYSIM model. Simulations are carried out for each of the 825 10 km × 10 km grid cells covering Ireland for the baseline period (1961–1990) and two future scenarios; 2041–2070 and 2061–2090. Parameter values are derived for each square using data from the Soil Survey of Ireland and the CORINE land use database and validation is carried out for selected catchments. The results of these simulations indicate a decrease in annual runoff that is most marked in the east and southeast of the country, whereas an increase is likely for the extreme northwest. The reduction in effective runoff for the east of the country is particularly marked during the summer months. It is these areas that have highest population density and also where greatest population growth is likely to occur. During the winter months an increase in effective runoff is suggested for the western half of country which could have implications for flood frequency, as well as the extent and duration of winter flooding.     

Effects of an anisotropic overburden on azimuthal amplitude analysis in horizontal transverse isotropic media

Azimuthal amplitude variation in fractured media, commonly used to characterize fracture systems, is a function not only of reflection at the target but also of transmission through the overburden. This study investigates the sensitivity of amplitudes to various anisotropic overburden effects in horizontal transverse isotropic (HTI) media. Issues considered here are geometric spreading, transmission coefficients and attenuation due to fluid flow. Their influence on the azimuthal amplitude variation is evaluated quantitatively over a wide model space.
Only the variation of transmission coefficients with azimuth proves to be negligible. Geometric spreading alters the amplitude signature significantly over a relatively narrow range of models, and its influence increases with layer thickness. The most severe effect of an anisotropic fractured overburden is attenuation due to fluid flow between the cracks or the cracks and pores in the surrounding matrix. The relative changes in amplitudes between the symmetry directions due to anisotropic absorption are of the same order of magnitude as the changes in the reflection coefficient. The effect is significant over a very wide range of petrophysical parameters. Thus it leads to considerable problems in the amplitude analysis for almost any case of an overburden that contains cracks and pores. A correct amplitude analysis at the target will not be possible unless the effect of attenuation is removed.     

Lithospheric structural contrasts across the Caledonides of northern Britain

Interpretation of both P- and S-wave data from the 1974 LISPB seismic experiment has resulted in a detailed cross-section across the Caledonian orogenic belt of northern Britain. This section provides clear evidence of lateral variations in lithospheric structure, comparable with the gross geological variations. In particular, lithospheric structure is asymmetric across the orogenic belt: however, the axis of this asymmetry seems to vary with depth within the central part of the belt. Thus the identification of a possible lapetus suture remains moot.