湖南6月区域持续性暴雨的强信号及预报概念模型

基于湖南汛期区域持续性暴雨典型环流分型,利用1961—2016年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和异常度方法对湖南6月区域持续性暴雨环流型进行客观识别,并结合动力和水汽输送条件,确定湖南6月区域持续性暴雨强信号并客观量化表征,建立湖南6月区域持续性暴雨预报定量化概念模型。结果表明:43次历史区域持续性暴雨过程的回报准确率达到81%,2017—2018年3次区域持续暴雨过程试报准确率为2/3,说明该概念模型有一定预报能力,能为湖南暴雨预报业务服务提供技术支持。将该概念模型与各类模式预报产品相结合,还可开展区域持续性暴雨的中期和延伸期预报。     

Possible solar forcing of 400-year wet–dry climate cycles in northwestern China

Here we present a multi-proxy paleolimnological record from a closed-basin lake (Ebinur Lake) in northwestern China to investigate climate change in this arid region during the last 1,500 years. The 120-cm long sediment core was dated by AMS radiocarbon and ²¹⁰Pb methods. The fine-grained clay sediments contain 3–17% organic matter (OM) and 9–31% carbonate, and are interrupted by multiple sand and silt layers. These sand/silt layers, having consistently low OM, were found at 700–800, 1000–1100, 1300–1400, and 1700–1750 a.d., with a time spacing of 300–400 years. We interpret that the low OM sand/silt layers were deposited during higher lake levels caused by increased river inflow from the surrounding mountains during wet climate intervals. This interpretation is supported by concurrent decreases in δ ¹⁸O and δ ¹³C of bulk carbonate and in carbonate content. Wet climate intervals at 700–800 a.d. and at 1700–1750 a.d. also correlate with elevated snow accumulation and low δ ¹⁸O from Guliya ice core on the NW Tibetan Plateau, both regions strongly influenced by the westerlies. This approximate 400-year periodicity of wet–dry climate oscillations appear to correlate with solar activity as shown by atmosphere ¹⁴C concentration and with paleo-moisture records in interior North America. Our results suggest that solar activities might have played a significant role in driving wet–dry climate oscillations at centennial scales in the interior of Eurasian continent.     

Transport of waste heat from a nuclear power plant into coastal water

A numerical and experimental modeling is presented for studying the transport of waste heat from a nuclear power plant into coastal water by using a full-field physical model with scale distortion, a local physical model with normal scale and a depth-averaged k− turbulence model with a modified second-order upwind scheme. Field investigations are also used to provide the calibration and validation of the modeling. A case study simulating the turbulent tidal flow and waste heat transport in the coastal water near Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant in Southern China was conducted. The experimental result of the case study shows that the water temperature in coastal water was a little oversimulated near the surface and was a little undersimulated near the bottom of heated-water layer by the full-field physical model. The numerical study shows that the depth-averaged k− turbulence model presented a satisfied prediction of turbulent tidal flow and far-field temperature distribution in coastal water, although the near-field stratification due to the heated water effluent was not accounted for. The result of the effect of scale distortion on physical model shows that a full-field physical model with a scale distortion of 10 produced a satisfied result of temperature distribution in the present case study.     

塔北沙西—轮台地区亚格列木组砂岩沉积相及储层评价

沙雅西—轮台地区卡普沙良群亚格列木组为一套棕红色陆相碎屑岩沉积,包括冲积扇、辫状河、三角洲、辫状河三角洲和砾质滨岸等沉积体系,多呈扇形。岩性较粗,通常具有较高的原始孔隙度,是有利的油气储集体,按储层的好坏可分为4类储层区。     

基于Simulink的振荡水柱气室优化分析

振荡水柱式(Oscillation Water Column,简称OWC)波浪能采集装置具有结构简单、稳定性好、海洋环境适应性强等优点。为了提高该装置波能采集效率,研究波浪进入气室的振荡水柱气动特性与装置结构参数关系,为系统设计提供理论基础。以振荡水柱式波能转换理论计算分析为基础,采用Simulink软件分别建立前墙处入口压强Pq求解模型、装置气室内压强Po求解模型以及装置内振荡水柱运动方程y求解模型,研究目的是综合分析振荡水柱气室内压强与气室结构、波浪流体动力学参数之间的变化关系。     

沙漠下垫面地面温度及能量收支的BATS模式参数化改进

利用陆面过程模式BATS,引入地表发射率及两种大气发射率参数化方案,同时引入不同的地表粗糙度参数化方案,对比各种参数化方案对沙漠下垫面地面温度及能量收支的模拟状况。结果表明：采用Van Bavel等发展的地表发射率及Chung等发展的大气发射率方案可以明显改进地面温度及向上长波辐射的模拟,Chung等方案在夜间与正午的模拟效果更好,减小了1 ℃左右的地面温度模拟偏差,减小了10 W·m^-2左右的向上长波辐射模拟偏差。晴天地面温度及向上长波辐射的模拟结果优于阴天。利用Zhang等发展的裸土粗糙度参数化方案也会提高模式对地表感热通量模拟的准确性。     

Detrital zircon provenance analysis in the Zagros Orogen,SW Iran: implications for the amalgamation history of the Neo-Tethys

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Zagros Orogen developed as a result of Arabia–Eurasia collision. New in situ detrital zircon U–Pb and Hf isotopic analyses from a Cenozoic...     

“一带一路”地区能源金属矿床分布规律及开发工艺

对"一带一路"地区的能源金属锂和铀的矿床分布规律进行统计,并对典型矿床的地质特征与开发工艺进行概述,为了解"一带一路"地区的锂矿和铀矿提供基础信息,同时为中国进行"能源金属"的开采提供科学依据。研究认为,"一带一路"地区共有大型及以上锂矿36个,成因类型有硬岩型、盐湖型、沉积型和煤伴生型4种,资源储量分别为784×10~4t、1702×10~4t、237.5×10~4t和623×10~4t。盐湖型锂矿分布于中国和阿富汗,硬岩型锂矿分布在俄罗斯等国家,沉积型锂矿分布在塞尔维亚等国家,煤伴生型锂矿只分布于中国。鉴于盐湖型锂矿开发的环境影响较小,建议有关国家加大对盐湖型锂资源的勘探与开发。"一带一路"地区共有大型及以上铀矿130个,成因类型主要为砂岩型和火山岩型,主要集中在哈萨克斯坦等国家,铀资源储量(可靠回收成本≤130$/kg)达181.94×10~4t,占"一带一路"地区总资源储量的92.12%,建议中国与相关国家进行交流与合作,加大对中国境内北方地区砂岩型铀矿的寻找力度,同时进行火山岩型铀矿的勘探开发。     

Ensemble Numerical Simulations of Realistic SEP Events and the Inspiration for Space Weather Awareness

The solar energetic particle(SEP)event is a kind of hazardous space weather phenomena,so its quantitative forecast is of great importance from the aspect of spa...