Efficient risk assessment of lifeline networks under spatially correlated ground motions using selective recursive decomposition algorithm

For effective hazard mitigation planning and prompt-but-prudent post-disaster responses, it is essential to evaluate the reliability of infrastructure networks accurately and efficiently. A nonsimulation-based algorithm, termed as a recursive decomposition algorithm (RDA), was recently proposed to identify disjoint cut sets and link sets and to compute the network reliability. This paper introduces a ‘selective’ RDA, which preferentially identifies critical disjoint cut sets and link sets to calculate the probabilities of network disconnection events with a significantly reduced number of identified sets. To this end, the original RDA is improved by replacing the shortest path algorithm with an algorithm that identifies the most reliable path, and by using a graph decomposition scheme based on the probabilities associated with the subgraphs. The critical sets identified by the algorithm are also used to compute conditional probability-based importance measures that quantify the relative importance of network components by their contributions to network disconnection events. This paper also introduces a risk assessment framework for lifeline networks based on the use of the selective RDA, which can consider both interevent and intraevent uncertainties of spatially correlated ground motions. The risk assessment framework and the selective RDA are demonstrated by a hypothetical network example, and the gas and water transmission networks of Shelby County in Tennessee, USA. The examples show that the proposed framework and the selective RDA greatly improve efficiency of risk assessment of complex lifeline networks, which are characterized by a large number of components, complex network topology, and statistical dependence between component failures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2010年1月24日山西河津-万荣MS4.8地震的震源机制解与发震构造探讨

2010年1月24日,山西省运城市河津-万荣交界地区发生Ms4.8地震.由于本次地震强度较低,并未形成地表破裂带,分析其发震构造具有一定的困难.地震现场工作队只能根据浅层人工地震剖面、附近钻孔资料、烈度等震线长轴和震中区附近活动断裂等来推定,认为西辛封隐伏断裂为可能的发震断裂.为此,下面我们将在分析本次地震的震源机制解、序列三维空间分布特征的基础上,结合本次地震的宏观考察结果,确定其发震构造并探讨发震机理.     

军队参与国际重大自然灾害救援行动工作机制建设的思考

向遭受严重自然灾害的国家或地区提供人道主义紧急支援,是各国军队在和平时期的重要使命。目前中国军队还没有成建制地出国参加过重大自然灾害的国际救援。本文介绍了联合国重大自然灾害国际救援行动协调工作机制、联合国框架下的军队资源参与灾害救援的工作机制。结合印尼地震海啸、海地地震等灾害中各国军队救援的情况,对我国军队将来参与国际重大自然灾害救援,在法律、预案和工作机制准备方面进行了分析,并提出了建议。     

核电厂地震PSA方法研究探讨

首先回顾了地震概率安全评价(Seismic Probability Safety Assessment,SPSA)方法的发展历史及应用现状;然后基于SPSA的要素,研究了SPSA方法中需要解决的主要问题,重点是地震易损性分析,并根据SPSA的任务描述SPSA流程,主要探讨电厂走访和继电器评价的方法;最后结合我国概率安全评价(Probability Safety Assessment,PSA)的研究进展、SPSA的基础等实际状况,提出适合我国的SPSA实施路线的建议,以保障核电站地震情况下的安全.     

Effects of rainfall on soil moisture and water movement in a subalpine dark coniferous forest in southwestern China

Water content and movement in soil profile and hydrogen isotope composition (δD) of soil water, rainwater, and groundwater were examined in a subalpine dark coniferous forest in the Wolong National Nature Reserve in Sichuan, China, following rainfall events in 2003–2004. Light rainfall increased water content in the litter and at soil depth of 0–80 cm, but the increased soil water was lost in several days. Heavy rainfall increased soil water content up to 85% at depths of 0–40 cm. Following the light rainfall in early spring, the δD of water from the litter, humus, illuvial, and material layers decreased first and then gradually reached the pre‐rainfall level. In summer, light rainfall reached the litter humus, and illuvial layer, but did not hit the material layer. Heavy rainfall affected δD of water in all layers. The δD of soil interflow slightly fluctuated with rainfall events. The δD of shallow groundwater did not differ significantly among all rainfall events. Light rainfall altered the shape of δD profile curve of water in the upper layer of soil, whereas heavy rainfall greatly affected the shape of δD profile curve of water in all soil layers. Following the heavy rainfall, preferential flow initially occurred through macropores, decayed plant roots, and rocks at different depths of soil profile. With continuing rainfall, the litter and surface soil were nearly saturated or fully saturated, and infiltration became homogeneous and plug‐like. Forest soil water, particularly in deeper soil profile, was slightly affected by rainfall and, thus, can be a source of water supply for regional needs, particularly during dry seasons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

重庆羊头铺水库诱发地震分析研究

通过实地调查并结合前人研究成果,综合分析了羊头铺水库区的地质构造背景、地震活动性及水文地质条件等。在此基础上,应用构造类比法和概率预测法对羊头铺水库诱发地震的可能性进行了分析。结果表明,库区南段有发生水库诱发地震的可能性,发生MS1.0～3.0地震的概率约为0.19,诱发最大地震强度为MS3.0左右。而库区北段有发生MS1.0地震的可能性,发震概率仅为0.03。     

全国自动地震速报系统综合评估

通过对2011年1月1日至12月31日的3套独立自动地震定位系统结果进行综合处理,得出中国自动地震综合目录,并与正式速报结果进行对比,得出全国自动地震速报系统综合评估结果,发现该目录对于国内绝大部分5级以上、国外7级以上地震实现整体覆盖,且没有误报发生,可以作为国家台网中心正式地震速报的重要参考,对于建立“自动报～正式报”的两级地震速报制度可提供技术支撑。     

基于极差归一化变换的超低频地震电磁场事件提取方法研究

介绍一种高采样率超低频地震电磁场观测系统,通过对几种事件分析和提取方法的优缺点讨论,引入一种新的事件判定和提取方法,即极差归一化变换法,利用该方法对怀来地震台的超低频地震电磁场试验观测数据进行分析处理.研究结果表明:极差归一化变换法在事件阈值计算中不受观测数据幅度变化的影响,且受到背景噪声干扰的影响比较小,是一种比较有应用前景的超低频地震电磁场事件提取方法.     

矿山微地震全波自动定位的层析成像方法(英文)

针对在矿山微地震监测过程中纵横波及其传播速度难以确定的难点,在球坐标系中以波动方程为基础,推导出了矿山微地震全波自动定位的层析成像的计算公式,并给出了参数选择准则,藉此可以获得微地震成像能量最大值及其对应参数。通过判断能量最大值在风险区内的位置,可以将风险区内外的微地震事件区分出来。对于能量最大值位于风险区域内的微地震事件,其震源位置和震动时间以及传播速度与能量最大值对应的坐标参数相同,能量最大值对应于震源函数相对强度;当能量最大值位于风险区域边界上时,微地震事件不在风险区域范围之内。理论模型试算和矿山实际微地震资料的应用表明:层析成像方法无需纵横波识别和传播速度假定,只要给定事故风险区域范围及其传播速度范围,便可完成微地震事件定位,是一种全波全自动定位方法,具有进一步研究价值。     

2011 年夏季胶州湾三种大型水母的种群动态研究

2011年8月1日-9月30日,对胶州湾三种大型水母沙海蛰(Nemopilema nomurai)、白色霞水母(Cyanea nozakii)、海月水母(Aurelia aurita)的种群数量变动及空间分布情况开展了目测调查,同步获得了气象、水温、盐度、叶绿素a、浮游动物丰度、种类组成等数据,调查频率为每周2次。调查期间,海月水母表现出逐渐降低的趋势,沙海蛰与白色霞水母种群均于8月11日达到数量高峰,8月底及9月中旬之后依次衰落,至9月底,三种水母基本消失。三种水母的种群平均丰度变化范围分别为:沙海蛰0-230.8ind/km2;霞水母0-150.2ind/km2;海月水母0-123.4ind/km2。从分布区域来看,海月水母主要位于近岸区,沙海蜇主要分布于湾口和中部深水区,而白色霞水母则在高峰期和次高峰期分别集中于深水区和近岸区。结合往年资料,作者认为,海月水母种群能够在胶州湾内进行自我补充并完成其生活史,而胶州湾沙海蛰与霞水母的种群补充则可能主要依赖于湾外种群。另外,目测方法的准确性可能受到气象条件的影响。