Time-variant fragility analysis of the bridge system considering time-varying dependence among typical component seismic demands

This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.     

基于ShakeMap_CNST的2017年精河6.6级地震灾害快速评估

基于考虑区域地震动衰减关系、场地效应及震中破裂等多因素的烈度快速评估模型,结合震害预测方法,研发了一套震害预测系统,并以2017年8月9日精河M_S6.6地震的震害预测为例,将对其的预测结果与当前主流系统进行对比。结果表明,采用ShakeMap_CNST系统能对地震的影响范围和烈度进行更为准确的估计,在人员伤亡、受灾人口估计、紧急安置人数及经济损失评估等方面,相对于其他系统,本系统的结果与现场调查的结果更为接近。     

2018年9月4日新疆伽师MS5.5地震序列及发震构造讨论

2018年9月4日新疆伽师发生M_S5.5地震,震中处于塔里木地块西北缘,位于1997~1998年伽师强震群震区内。此次伽师地震前发生了M_S4.7前震,截至9月30日最大余震震级为M_S4.6（M_L5.0）,初步判定为前-主-余型地震序列。序列精定位结果显示,余震沿近NE向展布,主震震源深度与1997~1998年伽师强震主震基本一致,发震断层陡立。本文从区域的构造环境、地震震源机制解和余震分布特征等方面分析认为,地震发生在伽师隐伏断裂东南端部,为1997~1998年伽师强震群震区的一次新的构造活动。序列参数、视应力等计算结果显示,伽师M_S5.5地震的预测最大余震震级与最大余震震级M_S4.6接近,表明序列最大余震已经发生。     

Carboniferous integrative stratigraphy and timescale of China

The Carboniferous period lasted about 60 Myr, from ～358.9 Ma to ～298.9 Ma. According to the International Commission on Stratigraphy, the Carboniferous System is subdivided into two subsystems, i.e., Mississippian and Pennsylvanian, including 6 series and 7 stages. The Global Stratotype Sections and Points(GSSPs) of three stages have been ratified, the Tournaisian, Visean, and Bashkirian stages. The GSSPs of the remaining four stages(i.e., the Serpukhovian, Moscovian,Kasimovian, and Gzhelian) have not been ratified so far. This paper outlines Carboniferous stratigraphic subdivision and correlation on the basis of detailed biostratigraphy mainly from South China, and summarizes the Carboniferous chronostratigraphic framework of China. High-resolution biostratigraphic study reveals 37 conodont zones, 24 foraminiferal(including fusulinid) zones, 13 ammonoid zones, 10 brachiopod zones, and 10 rugose coral zones in the Carboniferous of China. The biostratigraphic framework based on these biozones warrants the precise correlation of regional stratigraphy of China(including2 subsystems, 4 series, and 8 stages) to that of the other regions globally. Meanwhile, the Carboniferous chemo-, sequence-,cyclo-, and event-stratigraphy of China have been intensively studied and can also be correlated worldwide. Future studies on the Carboniferous in China should focus on(1) the correlation between shallow-and deep-water facies and between marine and continental facies,(2) high-resolution astronomical cyclostratigraphy, and(3) paleoenvironment and paleoclimate analysis based on geochemical proxies such as strontium and oxygen isotopes, as well as stomatal indices of fossil plants.     

Devonian integrative stratigraphy and timescale of China

The Global Boundary Stratotype Sections and Points(GSSPs) for the bases of all seven international Devonian stages have been formally defined and ratified by IUGS till 1996, and nowadays, the main tasks for Devonian stratigraphers include further subdivision of these standard stages, strictly constrained absolute ages for the boundaries, and precise neritic-pelagic and marine-terrestrial correlations using multidisciplinary stratigraphy methods. Establishment of high-resolution Devonian integrative stratigraphy framework and timescale of China would play an important role in improving regional and international correlation, facilitating the recognition of important stratigraphic levels in different paleogeographic settings, and understanding the evolution pattern of biota, paleoclimate and paleoenvironment during this critical interval. Based on well-studied bio-and chronostratigraphy of Devonian in South China and adjacent areas, in combination with recent achievements in carbon isotope stratigraphy, event stratigraphy and radioactive isotope ages, this paper briefly summarize the research history and current status of Devonian chronostratigraphy of China, and for the first time introduce Devonian integrative stratigraphy framework of China.Up to date, few studies have been conducted on the astronomical cyclostratigraphy and high-resolution radioactive isotope dating in Devonian of China, which should be our main focuses in the near future.     

Spatio-temporal differentiation of spring phenology in China driven by temperatures and photoperiod from 1979 to 2018

Large amounts of data accumulated in ecology and related environmental sciences arouses urgent need to explore useful patterns and information in it. Here we propose coclustering-based methods and a temperatures-photoperiod driven phenological model to explore spatio-temporal differentiation in long-term spring phenology in China. First, we created the first bloom date(FBD) dataset in China from 1979 to 2018 using the extended spring indices and China Meteorological Forcing Dataset. Then we analyzed the dataset using Bregman block average co-clustering algorithm with I-divergence(BBAC_I) and kmeans algorithm. Such analysis delineated the spatially-continuous phenoregions in China for the first time. Results showed three spatial patterns of FBD in China and their temporal dynamics for 40 years(1979–2018). More specifically, overall late spring onsets occur in 1979–1996, in which areas located in Jiangxi, northern Xinjiang and middle Inner Mongolia experienced constant changing spring onsets. Overall increasingly earlier spring onsets occur in 1997–2012, in which areas located in Fujian,Hunan and eastern Heilongjiang experienced the most variable spring onsets. Stable early spring onsets over China occur after 2012. Results also showed 15 temporal patterns of spring phenology over the study period and their spatial delineation in China.More specifically, most areas in China have the same FBD category for 40 years while northern Guizhou, Hunan and southern Hubei have the same category in 1979–1997 and then fluctuate between different categories. Finally, our results have certain directive significance on the design of existing observational sites in Chinese Phenological Network.     

海洋聚球藻对不同硝酸盐浓度的响应特征

近年来,由于陆源污染的加重以及近海环境治理的推进,中国近海海域营养盐浓度发生明显变化,导致浮游植物生物量及群落结构发生改变。作为一种广泛分布且丰度较高的微微型蓝藻,聚球藻在中国近海生态系统中发挥着重要的角色,但其对不同硝酸盐浓度的响应尚待研究。本文分别从渤海和黄海采集聚球藻富集样本,在不同硝酸盐浓度下进行半连续培养,通过测定生长曲线、色素含量、光合生理参数以及碳氮含量,研究聚球藻对硝酸盐浓度的响应特征。当硝酸盐浓度为0.1、1.0、10.0μmol·L^–1时,聚球藻培养体系可支持的生物量较小,光能转化效率较低;当硝酸盐浓度为100.0μmol·L^–1时,聚球藻细胞生长得到促进,其培养体系可支持的生物量约提高5倍,同时培养体系整体的光能转化效率达到最高,但单位细胞的捕光能力受到抑制,氮和磷的转化率提高。研究表明海洋聚球藻能够适应不同的硝酸盐浓度维持生长,在较高的硝酸盐浓度下,聚球藻生物量显著提高,但释放至胞外的碳氮未出现相应的当量增加。研究结果为营养盐胁迫条件下浮游生态系统的响应提供了原核微藻方面的实验依据。     

1971-2010年三江源地区干湿状况变化的空间特征

 依据1971-2010年地面观测气象数据,计算了三江源地区湿润指数。利用经验正交函数分解（EOF）和偏相关系数,对近40 a三江源地区干湿状况变化的时空特征及其影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:三江源地区干湿状况的变化在其北部与南部、东部与西部间存在明显反相位变化特征。北部和东部的部分区域分别在20世纪90年代和21世纪后表现出气候湿润化趋势,其余大部地区的持续干旱化趋势始于20世纪80年代初,其中南部与西部变干趋势显著,其湿润指数线性趋势率达到-8%/10 a。虽然三江源地区干湿状况主要决定于降水量和相对湿度的变化,但20世纪90年代中期后气温的显著上升,使得气温也成为关键的影响因子之一,即使在降水明显增加的背景下,也引起三江源主体区域湿润指数的明显下降。气候变暖情景下,北部和东部地区在近十几年暖湿化趋势明显,其余大部地区表现为不同程度的暖干化趋势。     

基于JAVA技术的江苏气象物资供应管理系统

为了提高气象物资供应的管理效率、管理质量以及保障能力研制了本系统。系统采用JAVA语言进行开发,采用B/S架构,以成熟可靠的开源软件Tomcat作为软件服务器并采用安全性较高的DB2数据库,实现了采购、调拨、领用借用、资产管理、检定维修、设备管理、报废、项目等业务的流程化管理,从而使相关人员更高效、更规范地做好气象探测中心的气象装备保障工作。     

沙尘暴天气数值预报系统及其预报效果检验

沙尘暴天气数值预报系统包括区域大气模式、陆面过程模式、风沙模式(包括风蚀、输送和沉降模式)和地理信息系统。用该系统对2002年3月20日和4月7日2次沙尘天气进行了预报试验,利用地面观测资料和卫星观测资料对模式输出的主要沙尘天气预报产品进行了对比分析。分析结果认为,沙尘暴天气数值预报系统对沙通量、尘通量和垂直积分质量有很好的预报能力,但仍需改进陆面参数和沙尘气溶胶的初始值。