基于分布式水文模拟的三峡区间洪水预报(Ⅰ)——模型构建及验证

长江三峡区间因暴雨形成的洪水峰高量大,对三峡水库的防洪安全和运行调度的影响很大.本论文依据三峡地区的地形地貌特征,采用基于GIS的机理性分布式水文模型,来模拟三峡区间入库洪水,以尽量减少洪水预报中的不确定性.利用近期建成的78个自动雨量站网监测的小时降雨信息作为模型的输入,对模型参数进行了率定和验证,结果表明:大多数洪水过程的模拟精度较好,但也有的模拟结果较差,其中降雨信息缺失是洪水预报不确定性的主要来源.     

鲁中南隆起区第四纪晚期断裂活动特征

根据野外调查，并综合前人的研究资料，对鲁中南地区第四纪晚期断裂活动进行了分析，研究表明，鲁中南隆起区第四纪断裂活动具有时空不均匀性，主要表现为第四纪时期断层活动强度变化和断裂活动的群集性以及第四纪晚期断裂活动段分布的局限性上。对于鲁中南地区而言，活动断层可以分为中更新世中期（500kaBP)至晚更新世初期（90kaBP)活断层和晚更新世中、晚期至全新世早期活断层两类；其中前一类（主要是中更新世断裂）断裂数量较多，分布较为广泛，而晚更新世晚期以来的活动断裂段的数量较少，分布较局限。它们对地震的控制能力不同，前者可控制5．5级左右的地震，而后一类可控制6－7级地震的发生。     

九脊游仆虫(Euplotes novemcarinata Wang,1930)的纤毛下器与银线系研究(纤毛动物门,腹毛目)

九脊游仆虫(Euplotes novemcarinata Wang、1930)是土壤及淡水中生活的原生动物。本文对其重要的分类特征诸如银线系及纤毛下器做了形态学研究,确认了其分类地位,并比较了国外迄今的研究工作,在此基础上,将同物异名苔藓游仆虫(E.muscicolaKahl、1932)作了归并。     

On the long-term joint distribution of characteristic wave height and period and its application

By analysing the scatter diagrams of characteristic the wave height H and the period T on the basis of instrumental data from various ocean wave stations, we found that the conditional expectation and standard deviation of wave period for a given wave height can be better predicted by using the equations of normal linear regression rather than by those based on the log- normal law. The latter was implied in Ochi' s bivariate log-normal model(Ochi. 1978) for the long-term joint distribution of H and T. With the expectation and standard deviation predicted by the normal linear regression equations and applying proper types of distribution, we have obtained the conditional distribution of T for given H. Then combining this conditional P(T / H) with long-term marginal distribution of the wave height P(H) we establish a new parameterized model for the long-term joint distribution P(H,T). As an example of the application of the new model we give a method for estimating wave period associated with an extreme w     

Oceanic iron fertilization: one of strategies for sequestration atmospheric CO2

Carbon cycle is connected with the most important environmental issue of Global Change.As one of the major carbon reservoirs, oceans play an important part in the carbon cycle. In recent years, iron seems to give us a good news that oceanic iron fertilization could stimulate biological productivity as CO2 sink of human-produced CO2. Oceanic iron fertilization experiments have verified that adding iron into high nutrient low chlorophyll (HNLC) seawaters can increase phytoplankton production and export organic carbon, and hence increase carbon sink of anthropogenic CO2, to reduce global warming. In sixty days, the export organic carbon could reach 10 000 times for adding iron by model prediction and in situ experiment, i.e. the atmospheric CO2 uptake and inorganic carbon drawdown in upper seawaters also have the same magnitude. Therefore, oceanic iron fertilization is one of the strategies for increasing carbon sink of anthropogenic CO2. The paper is focused on the iron fertilization, especially in situ o     

河口环流和盐水入侵Ⅱ--径流量和海平面上升的影响

本文利用本序列上篇论文建立的理想河口数值模式,研究径流量和海平面上升对河口环流和盐水入侵的影响.在径流量增大的情况下,口门内表层向海的流速增大,底层向陆的密度流减弱,滞流点下移.口门外侧向口门的密度流增大,上升流趋于增强.口门内盐水入侵减弱,口外盐度减小、冲淡水扩展范围增大.在口门上游北岸底层盐度下降明显,口门处南岸表层盐度下降明显.径流量变化对盐水入侵影响十分巨大.在海平面上升的情况下,拦门沙区域向陆的密度流增强,滞流点上移,表层向海的流动增大.口门内盐水入侵增强,口外盐度增大,冲淡水扩展范围减小.海平面上升对盐水入侵影响十分明显,北岸底层盐度增大尤为特出.     

Full-range nonlinear analysis of fatigue behaviors of reinforced concrete structures by finite element method

Ｆｕｌｌ－ｒａｎｇｅｎｏｎｌｉｎｅａｒａｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｆａｔｉｇｕｅｂｅｈａｖｉｏｒｓｏｆｒｅｉｎｆｏｒｃｅｄｃｏｎｃｒｅｔｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｓｂｙｆｉｎｉｔｅｅｌｅｍｅｎｔｍｅｔｈｏｄ￥ＳｏｎｇＹｕｐｕ；ＺｈａｏＳｈｕｎｂｏ；ＷａｎｇＲｕｉｍ...     

太阳黑子、厄尔尼诺及西北太平洋热带气旋的活动

本文用１９００～１９９４年的资料，以统计分析的方法，对太阳黑子，厄尔尼诺及西北太平洋热带气旋活动的相互关系，进行了初步探讨，归纳出几点有参考价值的结论     

扇贝外寄生车轮虫（Trichodina jadranica Raabe，1958）的形态学研究 （原生动物：纤毛门：缘毛目）

采用Ｗｉｌｂｅｒｔ蛋白银法及Ｃｈａｔｔｏｎ—Ｌｗｏｆｆ银浸法对一种附生于栉孔扇贝鳃丝上的寄生车轮虫进行了光镜水平下的研究。依据其形态学和纤毛图式特征，该种被鉴定为ＴｒｉｃｈｏｄｉｎａｊａｄｒａｎｉｃａＲａａｂｅ，１９５８．此为我国新记录，同时也是第一例有关外寄生于扇贝鳃表纤毛虫原生动物的报道。     

污水-海水混合过程中磷转移的动力学

模拟研究厦门市污水排海时污水-海水混合过程中磷含量和形态的变化,及其在海水-颗粒物界面交换的动力学过程;提供转移模式,确定转移速率,进行磷的容量校正,为厦门西海域环境容量估算和水质控制提供定量参数和理论依据。