Probabilistic risk analysis using ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators

The concepts of system load and capacity are pivotal in risk analysis. The complexity in risk analysis increases when the input parameters are either stochastic (aleatory uncertainty) and/or missing (epistemic uncertainty). The aleatory and epistemic uncertainties related to input parameters are handled through simulation-based parametric and non-parametric probabilistic techniques. The complexities increase further when the empirical relationships are not strong enough to derive physical-based models. In this paper, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators are proposed to estimate the system load. The risk of failure is estimated by assuming normally distributed reliability index. The proposed methodology for risk analysis is illustrated using an example of nine-input parameters. Sensitivity analyses identified that the risk of failure is dominated by the attitude of a decision-maker to generate OWA weights, missing input parameters and system capacity.

Quantifying the effects of hydrological changes on long-term water quality trends in temperate reservoirs: insights from a multi-scale,paleolimnological study

Declining water quality in reservoirs is of growing concern in many regions, yet there is still little understanding of long-term water quality trends in these systems. Across the landscape, reservoirs have diverse origins, functions, and operational strategies. In temperate environments, winter water-level drawdown is a common operational practice in reservoirs but the long-term impacts of this hydrological modification has not been extensively studied. We paired a comparative, pre-dam-to-contemporary study (i.e. a top–bottom design) of 12 reservoirs with a detailed paleolimnological study of a focal lake to generate quantitative insights into the relative effect of hydrological changes vs. landscape and climatic drivers on water quality. The focal reservoir, Grand Lac Saint-François, is of relatively similar morphometry, geography, and limnology to our other sites, and has experienced annual winter water-level drawdown of?~?5 m since it was dammed approximately 100 years ago. Based on our top–bottom analysis, we did not find strong correlations between long-term changes in water quality (i.e. diatom-inferred TP estimates) and winter water-level drawdown amplitudes. Instead, reservoir morphometry and watershed characteristics (i.e. geography, maximum depth, and cropland areas) appeared to be stronger drivers of trends across the region. From the detailed paleolimnological analysis, we found that sedimentary pigments and DI-TP concentrations significantly increased over the last century based on Mann–Kendall trend analyses. Breakpoint analyses showed that changes in biological-proxy trends, as well as the sedimentology (i.e. lithology and accumulations rates), coincided with dam construction and the onset of water level regulation. However, given the high variability in metrics and the extent of water level monitoring records, we were unable to quantitatively associate the impacts of drawdown with water quality trends at Grand Lac Saint-François. Conversely, we did find that watershed nutrient surpluses from livestock farming, and warming temperatures were significant explanatory variables of water quality metrics.     

Transport of thermospheric NO to the upper stratosphere?

The rate of production of NO in the thermosphere is expected to vary greatly over the course of an 11-year solar cycle because the fluxes of both extreme ultraviolet radiation and auroral particles are known to increase substantially from solar minimum to solar maximum. In the stratosphere, NO participates in a catalytic cycle which constitutes the dominant photochemical destruction mechanism for stratospheric ozone. If appreciable long range transport of NO from the thermosphere to the upper stratosphere occurs, its effects should therefore be manifested in upper atmospheric ozone density variations over the 11-year solar cycle. In this paper, model predictions of the seasonal and latitudinal variations in upper stratospheric O₃ associated with NO transport for different levels of solar activity are compared to satellite observations of upper stratospheric ozone abundances.     

Spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of M9.0 megathrust earthquake sequences of wood‐frame houses in Victoria,British Columbia,Canada

Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management.     

Quantitative evaluation of a passively leveled ocean bottom seismometer

A problem in the use of ocean bottom seismometers is the difficulty in leveling the sensors while ensuring good coupling to the seafloor. We have investigated the coupling characteristics of the seismic sensors in the new ONR ocean bottom seismometer. In the deployable sensor package for that instrument, a three-component seismometer set is suspended on a 2-axis passive leveling gimbal and is immersed in a viscous fluid. We report tests, conducted in a seismic vault, comparing the output of a gimbaled seismometer set to that of a set rigidly coupled to the ground. Our results show that the degree to which the gimbaled set is coupled to ground motion is a function of the viscosity of the coupling fluid. The coherence between the two sensor sets is poor (<0.4) at some frequencies within the band of interest (0.15 to 20 Hz) and on some components when the viscosity of the coupling fluid is comparatively low (14 Pa-s or 0.16 kSt kinematic viscosity). In addition, the outputs of some components over portions of this frequency band are attenuated and are phase-shifted relative to the outputs of the set rigidly coupled to the ground. Coherence and phase response similarity improve as the viscosity of the coupling fluid is increased. With a coupling fluid viscosity of 980 Pa-s (10 kSt), coherence and phase agreement between the two sensor sets is good (>0.9) across nearly the entire band of interest on all three components. A simple analytical model of the gimbaled seismometer set as a damped, driven, compound-pendulum provides a basis for understanding the test results.     

Characterisation of marine and lacustrine sediments in a drowned thermokarst embayment, Richards Island, Beaufort Sea, Canada

A multidisciplinary study was made of lakes and lagoons in a thermokarst embayment on Richards Island, Canadian Beaufort Sea, in order to investigate the response of the Mackenzie Delta shoreline to changing hydrological influences. Seismo-acoustic profiles made from an amphibious vehicle, combined with sediment core data, show that the deepest lakes contain up to 10 m of transparent or stratified silty mud overlying the Kittigazuit sand basement. Palynological and microfossil data from 21 surface samples allow delineation of freshwater, saltmarsh, tidal flat and subtidal assemblages. These modern reference data allow distinction of freshwater and marine facies in the cores and subsequent interpretation of geochemical content (carbon, ammonia, sulphate). Radiocarbon dates and ¹³⁷ Cs show that sedimentation rates have increased by an order of magnitude since drowning of the embayment during the past millennium, and that most of this sediment is from the Mackenzie River plume.     

A Tube Seepage Meter for In Situ Measurement of Seepage Rate and Groundwater Sampling

We designed and evaluated a “tube seepage meter” for point measurements of vertical seepage rates (q), collecting groundwater samples, and estimating vertical hydraulic conductivity (K) in streambeds. Laboratory testing in artificial streambeds show that seepage rates from the tube seepage meter agreed well with expected values. Results of field testing of the tube seepage meter in a sandy‐bottom stream with a mean seepage rate of about 0.5 m/day agreed well with Darcian estimates (vertical hydraulic conductivity times head gradient) when averaged over multiple measurements. The uncertainties in q and K were evaluated with a Monte Carlo method and are typically 20% and 60%, respectively, for field data, and depend on the magnitude of the hydraulic gradient and the uncertainty in head measurements. The primary advantages of the tube seepage meter are its small footprint, concurrent and colocated assessments of q and K, and that it can also be configured as a self‐purging groundwater‐sampling device.     

Mapping iron abundances on the surface of Mercury: Predicted spatial resolution of the MESSENGER Gamma-Ray Spectrometer

To illustrate the spatial resolution of measurements of Mercury's surface elemental composition by the Gamma-Ray Spectrometer on the MESSENGER spacecraft after one year of orbital observations, we have simulated a global coverage map of the 846-keV iron gamma-ray count rate. The simulated map suggests that distinct geologic units larger than 800 km in horizontal dimension will be discernable when the difference in Fe abundance between adjacent geologic units exceeds 4 wt%. These results imply that the MESSENGER Gamma-Ray Spectrometer dataset will provide useful information for regional geological studies of the surface of Mercury.     

The transition from complex crater to peak-ring basin on Mercury: New observations from MESSENGER flyby data and constraints on basin formation models

The study of peak-ring basins and other impact crater morphologies transitional between complex craters and multi-ring basins is important to our understanding of the mechanisms for basin formation on the terrestrial planets. Mercury has the largest population, and the largest population per area, of peak-ring basins and protobasins in the inner solar system and thus provides important data for examining questions surrounding peak-ring basin formation. New flyby images from the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft have more than doubled the area of Mercury viewed at close range, providing nearly complete global coverage of the planet's surface when combined with flyby data from Mariner 10. We use this new near-global dataset to compile a catalog of peak-ring basins and protobasins on Mercury, including measurements of the diameters of the basin rim crest, interior ring, and central peak (if present). Our catalog increases the population of peak-ring basins by ∼150% and protobasins by ∼100% over previous catalogs, including 44 newly identified peak-ring basins (total=74) and 17 newly identified protobasins (total=32). A newly defined transitional basin type, the ringed peak-cluster basin (total=9), is also described. The new basin catalog confirms that Mercury has the largest population of peak-ring basins of the terrestrial planets and also places the onset rim-crest diameter for peak-ring basins at , which is intermediate between the onset diameter for peak-ring basins on the Moon and those for the other terrestrial planets. The ratios of ring diameter to rim-crest diameter further emphasize that protobasins and peak-ring basins are parts of a continuum of basin morphologies relating to their processes of formation, in contrast to previous views that these forms are distinct. Comparisons of the predictions of peak-ring basin-formation models with the characteristics of the basin catalog for Mercury suggest that formation and modification of an interior melt cavity and nonlinear scaling of impact melt volume with crater diameter provide important controls on the development of peak rings. The relationship between impact-melt production and peak-ring formation is strengthened further by agreement between power laws fit to ratios of ring diameter to rim-crest diameter for peak-ring basins and protobasins and the power-law relation between the dimension of a melt cavity and the crater diameter. More detailed examination of Mercury's peak-ring basins awaits the planned insertion of the MESSENGER spacecraft into orbit about Mercury in 2011.     

3H/3He age data in assessing the susceptibility of wells to contamination

Regulatory agencies are becoming increasingly interested in using young-ground water dating techniques, such as the 3H/3He method, in assessing the susceptibility of public supply wells (PSWs) to contamination. However, recent studies emphasize that ground water samples of mixed age may be the norm, particularly from long-screened PSWs, and tracer-based "apparent" ages can differ substantially from actual mean ages for mixed-age samples. We present age and contaminant data from PSWs in Salt Lake Valley, Utah, that demonstrate the utility of 3H and 3He measurements in evaluating well susceptibility, despite potential age mixing. Initial 3H concentrations (measured 3H + measured tritiogenic 3He) are compared to those expected based on the apparent 3H/3He age and the local precipitation 3H record. This comparison is used to determine the amount of modern water (recharged after approximately 1950) vs. prebomb water (recharged before approximately 1950) samples might contain. Concentrations of common contaminants were also measured using detection limits generally lower than those used for regulatory purposes. A clear correlation exists between the potential magnitude of the modern water fraction and both the occurrence and concentration of contaminants. For samples containing dominantly modern water based on their initial 3H concentrations, potential discrepancies between apparent 3H/3He ages and mean ages are explored using synthetic samples that are random mixtures of different modern waters. Apparent ages can exceed mean ages by up to 13 years for these samples, with an exponential age distribution resulting in the greatest discrepancies.