Risk-based environmental decision-making using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP)

Environmental risk management is an integral part of risk analyses. The selection of different mitigating or preventive alternatives often involve competing and conflicting criteria, which requires sophisticated multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is one of the most commonly used MCDM methods, which integrates subjective and personal preferences in performing analyses. AHP works on a premise that decision-making of complex problems can be handled by structuring the complex problem into a simple and comprehensible hierarchical structure. However, AHP involves human subjectivity, which introduces vagueness type uncertainty and necessitates the use of decision-making under uncertainty. In this paper, vagueness type uncertainty is considered using fuzzy-based techniques. The traditional AHP is modified to fuzzy AHP using fuzzy arithmetic operations. The concept of risk attitude and associated confidence of a decision maker on the estimates of pairwise comparisons are also discussed. The methodology of the proposed technique is built on a hypothetical example and its efficacy is demonstrated through an application dealing with the selection of drilling fluid/mud for offshore oil and gas operations.     

Seismic response of rotating machines–structure–RFBI systems

The seismic response of a critical rotating machine either rigidly attached to a floor or independently isolated housed within an initially aseismically designed or uncontrolled structure are investigated. A particular isolation system, the Resilient‐Friction Base Isolator (RFBI), is employed. Finite element formulations of a rotor‐disk‐bearing model on a rigid base are developed. The equations of motion for the combined rotating machine–structure–RFBI systems are presented. Parametric studies are performed to investigate the effects of variations in system physical properties including friction coefficient, mass ratio, shaft flexibility, bearing rigidity, bearing damping and speed of rotation on the response of rotating machines for the combined rotating machine–structure–isolator systems. Comparative studies in the peak response of the rotating machine supported on various isolation systems and the corresponding fixed base system are carried out. The study indicates that the Resilient‐Friction Base Isolator can significantly reduce the seismic response of rotating components to potentially damaging ground excitations. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Earthquake source mechanisms from body-waveform inversion and intraplate tectonics in the northern Indian Ocean

Double-couple point-source parameters for 11 of the largest intraplate earthquakes in the northern Indian Ocean during the last 20 y were determined from a formal inversion of long-period P and SH waveforms. Nine of the events have centroid depths at least 17 km below the seafloor, well into the upper mantle; two have centroid depths as great as 39 km. Using the source mechanisms of these earthquakes, we distinguish two major intraplate tectonic provinces in the northern Indian Ocean. To the west of the Ninetyeast Ridge, in the southern Bay of Bengal, intraplate earthquakes have thrust-faulting mechanisms with P axes oriented N-S. The centroid depths of these earthquakes range from 27 to 39 km below the seafloor. Lithospheric shortening in this region is thus accomplished by thrust faulting in the strong core of the oceanic upper mantle, while other geophysical evidence suggests that shallow sedimentary and crustal layers apparently deform predominantly by folding. In the immediate vicinity of the Ninetyeast Ridge, earthquakes display strike-slip mechanisms with left-lateral motion on planes parallel to the ridge. This type of faulting occurs from at least 10°S to the northern end of the Ninetyeast Ridge near 10°N, where the ridge meets the Sunda Arc. Seismic activity diminishes to the east of the Ninetyeast Ridge, but is also characterized by strike-slip faulting. Despite these variations in deformational style, the inferred orientation of greatest compressive stress in the northern Indian Ocean displays a consistent long-wavelength pattern over a large portion of the Indian plate, varying smoothly from nearly N-S in the Bay of Bengal to NW-SE in the northeastern Indian Ocean. This plate-wide stress pattern and the high level of intraplate seismicity in the northern Indian Ocean are likely the results of substantial resistance, along the Himalayan continental collision zone, to the continued northward motion of the western portion of the Indian plate. Oceanic intraplate earthquakes in other regions, where the level of deviatoric stress associated with the long-wavelength part of the stress field is likely to be smaller, need not be comparably reliable indicators of the plate-wide stress field.     

The effects of attenuation and site on the spectra of microearthquakes in the Jubilee Hills region of Hyderabad,India

Microearthquake spectra from Jubilee Hills, Hyderabad are analyzed to observe the effect of attenuation and site on these spectra. The ratios of spectral amplitudes at lower and higher frequency are measured for three different stations at varying epicentral distances to estimate Q value for both P-and S-wave in near and sub-surface layer. Average estimates of Qp and Qs are 235 and 278 respectively. Value of Qs/Qp larger than 1.0 suggests dry crust for most of the Jubilee Hills region. The near-surface low Qp and Qs for 0 km to 0.9 km depth coincide with the soil layer, top and semi-weathered and highly fractured zone. In contrast, at a shallower depth beneath the Jubilee Hills area, Hyderabad, we obtain high Qp and Qs zone, which corresponds to the dense and high velocity rocks of the region. The varying corner frequencies for these spectra are inferred to be characteristics of site. Comparisons of disparity in spectral content with reference to hard rock site conclude that lithology of the northwest part of Jubilee Hills area amplify about twice the incoming seismic signal, as compared to the southern part best outlined at 8 to 10 Hz only.     

Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Irradiance Measurements During Solar Cycle 22

The solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance, the dominant global energy source for Earth's atmosphere above 100 km, is not known accurately enough for many studies of the upper atmosphere. During the absence of direct solar EUV irradiance measurements from satellites, the solar EUV irradiance is often estimated at the 30–50% uncertainty level using both proxies of the solar irradiance and earlier solar EUV irradiance measurements, primarily from the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory (now Phillips Laboratory) rockets and Atmospheric Explorer (AE) instruments. Our sounding rocket measurements during solar cycle 22 include solar EUV irradiances below 120 nm with 0.2 nm spectral resolution, far ultraviolet (FUV) airglow spectra below 160 nm, and solar soft X-ray (XUV) images at 17.5 nm. Compared to the earlier observations, these rocket experiments provide a more accurate absolute measurement of the solar EUV irradiance, because these instruments are calibrated at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) with a radiometric uncertainty of about 8%. These more accurate sounding-rocket measurements suggest revisions of the previous reference AE–E spectra by as much as a factor of 2 at some wavelengths. Our sounding-rocket flights during the past several years (1988–1994) also provide information about solar EUV variability during solar cycle 22.     

On the use of an externally deployed geophone package on an Ocean Bottom Seismometer

We describe a recent modification to the MIT Ocean Bottom Seismometer by which the geophones are housed in a separate package that is deployed on the sea floor about 1 m distance from the main unit several hours after the OBS reaches the ocean bottom. Records from deep-sea experiments and shallow-water tests show two improvements over records from geophones housed in the main instrument package. Signals recorded by the external geophones have a much better signal-to-noise ratio because tape recorder noise and instrument vibrations generated by water currents are effectively eliminated. As a result, the overall frequency response of the sensors to ground motion has a demonstrably smoother spectral shape. The second improvement is that the cross coupling of horizontal instrument motion to vertical ground motion is apparently greatly reduced because of the simpler design for the sensor package.     

Tracing groundwater flow in the Borden aquifer using krypton-85

Krypton-85 was measured in air, soil gas, and ground water at the Borden aquifer in Ontario in October 1989. The measured specific activities in air and soil gas were 52.0 ± 2.0 and 53.6 ± 1.8 disintegrations per min (dpm) cm⁻³ krypton. These measurements are in excellent agreement with the global atmospheric trend and demonstrate that krypton-85 enters the water table at the Borden site without a lag in the soil gas reservoir. The krypton-85 specific activity in five groundwater samples ranged from 44.9 to 9.5 dpm cm⁻³ corresponding to groundwater ages of 2–17 years with a monotonic decrease in specific activity (increase in age) along the groundwater flow path. Travel times calculated from a two-dimensional steady-state model of groundwater flow agree well with the krypton-85 ages in the main recharge region of the aquifer where flow is predominantly vertical, but were 30–40% older than the krypton-85 age downstream of the main recharge area where the flow is mainly horizontal. The effect of dispersion on the distribution of krypton-85 was determined by modelling the transport of krypton-85 in the Borden aquifer with a two-dimensional time-dependent advection dispersion model using the steady-state flow field. Agreement between model specific activity and observed specific activity was excellent for samples in the main recharge region, but the model specific activities were 30–50% lower than observed specific activities in the region of horizontal flow. The differences in travel times and krypton-85 ages and in model krypton-85 and observed krypton-85 specific activities are considered to be small given the heterogeneities that exist in the hydraulic conductivity and aquifer geometry and hence in the groundwater flow field. The model simulated krypton-85 distribution was not sensitive to changes in longitudinal dispersivity and was only weakly sensitive to changes in transverse dispersivity. The geochemical inertness, well-defined source function, and insensitivity to dispersion of krypton-85 allow estimates of groundwater age to be made in a straightforward manner and measurement of krypton-85 can significantly enhance the characterization of groundwater flow in many shallow subsurface systems.     

Gas-partitioning tracer test to quantify trapped gas during recharge

Dissolved helium and bromide tracers were used to evaluate trapped gas during an infiltration pond experiment. Dissolved helium preferentially partitioned into trapped gas bubbles, or other pore air, because of its low solubility in water. This produced observed helium retardation factors of as much as 12 relative to bromide. Numerical simulations of helium breakthrough with both equilibrium and kinetically limited advection/dispersion/retardation did not match observed helium concentrations. However, better fits were obtained by including a decay term representing the diffusive loss of helium through interconnected, gas-filled pores. Calculations indicate that 7% to more than 26% of the porosity beneath the pond was filled with gas. Measurements of laboratory hydraulic properties indicate that a 10% decrease in saturation would reduce the hydraulic conductivity by at least one order of magnitude in the well-sorted sandstone, but less in the overlying soils. This is consistent with in situ measurements during the experiment, which show steeper hydraulic gradients in sandstone than in soil. Intrinsic permeability of the soil doubled during the first six months of the experiment, likely caused by a combination of dissolution and thermal contraction of trapped gas. Managers of artificial recharge basins may consider minimizing the amount of trapped gas by using wet, rather than dry, tilling to optimize infiltration rates, particularly in well-sorted porous media in which reintroduced trapped gas may cause substantial reductions in permeability. Trapped gas may also inhibit the amount of focused infiltration that occurs naturally during ephemeral flood events along washes and playas.     

Interannual Variability of Antarctic Hydrographic Structure and Frontal Zones along Meridional Sections between Syowa Station and Southern Africa

Six years of quasi-meridional crossings of the Antarctic Ocean from Antarctica to southern Africa between 4°W and 16°E longitude are analyzed, with emphasis on temperature and salinity distributions. Data are sparse, but (particularly in the southern part of the sections) adequate to show significant variations in the latitude/depth distributions and T-S characteristics of the principal water masses. In particular, the cross-sectional area occupied by Warm Deep Water (Weddell Deep Water) dropped by about one third in 1968. Positions of major features associated with the Antarctic Divergence varied by up to 5 degrees of latitude. The surface temperature gradient often observed at the Antarctic Divergence appears to be the surface expression of a shallow (possibly seasonal) thermocline which sometimes slopes upward to intersect the sea surface. There is a clear need for more closely spaced and consistently planned data from Antarctic cruises, particularly those on which physical oceanography is an ancillary activity. As a bare minimum, much more closely spaced surface temperature (and if possible also salinity) measurements would be useful.