Emission metrics under the 2 °C climate stabilization target

In multi-gas climate policies such as the Kyoto Protocol one has to decide how to compare the emissions of different greenhouse gases. The choice of metric could have significant implications for mitigation priorities considered under the prospective negotiations for climate mitigation agreements. Several metrics have been proposed for this task with the Global Warming Potential (GWP) being the most common. However, these metrics have not been systematically compared to each other in the context of the 2 °C climate stabilization target. Based on a single unified modeling framework, we demonstrate that metric values span a wide range, depending on the metric structure and the treatment of the time dimension. Our finding confirms the basic salient point that metrics designed to represent different aspects of the climate and socio-economic system behave differently. Our result also reflects a complex interface between science and policy surrounding metrics. Thus, it is important to select or design a metric suitable for climate stabilization based on an interaction among practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.     

Rapid development of arctic cyclone in June 2008 simulated by the cloud resolving global model NICAM

In this study, we conducted a numerical simulation of a rapid development of an arctic cyclone (AC) that appeared in June 2008 using a cloud resolving global model, Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM). We investigated the three dimensional structure and intensification mechanism of the simulated AC that developed to the minimum sea level pressure of 971 hPa in the model. According to the result, the AC indicates a barotropic structure with a warm core in the lower stratosphere and a cold core in the troposphere. The development of the AC is accompanied by an intense mesoscale cyclone (MC) showing baroclinic structure with a marked local arctic front. The upper level warm core of the AC is formed by an adiabatic heating associated with the downdraft in the lower stratosphere. The rapid development of the AC is caused by the combination of the intensification of the upper level warm core and the merging with the baroclinically growing MC in the lower level. The merging of the AC and MC and the vertical vortex coupling with the upper air polar vortex are the most important mechanisms for the rapid development of the arctic cyclone.     

Subsurface structure under a basaltic monogenetic volcano near the active Atera fault

In this study, we examined the subsurface structure in the vicinity of the active Atera fault beneath at least one monogenetic volcano that forms the Sakashita body of the Ueno basalts, central Japan. Microgravity and seismic reflection surveys over an area of about 3×3 km (horizontal)×1 km (vertical from surface) revealed that (1) a low-density body interpreted as the damaged zone of the Atera fault reaches a depth more than 200 m below sea level; and (2) a weak zone of crust that may exist about 1.5 km southwest of the Atera fault in a direction parallel to it. By combining the shape of the Sakashita body and (2), we propose that a dyke extending in a NW–SE direction with several vent alignments in the same direction may exist along this weak zone. This suggests that the studied area was governed in the NW–SE compressional and NE–SW extensional stress field when the Sakashita body formed.     

Tidal triggering of earthquakes in the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the locked zone of the plate interface in the Tokai region, Japan

We found a characteristic space–time pattern of the tidal triggering effect on earthquake occurrence in the subducting Philippine Sea plate beneath the locked zone of the plate interface in the Tokai region, central Japan, where a large interplate earthquake may be impending. We measured the correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence using microearthquakes that took place in the Philippine Sea plate for about two decades. For each event, we assigned the tidal phase angle at the origin time by theoretically calculating the tidal shear stress on the fault plane. Based on the distribution of the tidal phase angles, we statistically tested whether they concentrate near some particular angle or not by using Schuster's test. In this test, the result is evaluated by p-value, which represents the significance level to reject the null hypothesis that earthquakes occur randomly irrespective of the tidal phase angle. As a result of analysis, no correlation was found for the data set including all the earthquakes. However, we found a systematic pattern in the temporal variation of the tidal effect; the p-value significantly decreased preceding the occurrence of M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes, and it recovered a high level afterwards. We note that those M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes were considerably larger than the normal background seismicity in the study area. The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre-event period exhibited a peak at the phase angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This indicates that the observed small p-value is a physical consequence of the tidal effect. We also found a distinctive feature in the spatial distribution of p-values. The small p-values appeared just beneath the strongly coupled portion of the plate interface, as inferred from the seismicity rate change in the past few years.     

Long-term patterns in the diets of Japanese temperate bassLateolabrax japonicus larvae and juveniles in Chikugo estuarine nursery ground in Ariake Bay, Japan

Larval and juvenile Japanese temperate bass (Lateolabrax japonicus) samples were collected from a wide range of spatial gradients (covering a distance of approximately 30 km) in Chikugo estuary, Ariake Bay, Japan over a period of 8 yr (1997–2004) in order to observe changes in diet. Gut contents were studied by separating, identifying, counting, and estimating the dry weight of prey organisms. Copepod samples were collected during each cruise to observe the numerical composition, abundance, and biomass in the estuary. Considerable spatial and temporal variations were observed in copepod distributions in ambient water and the diets of the fish. Two distinctly different copepod assemblages were identified in the estuary: One in the upper estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM), dominated by a single speciesSinocalanus sinensis and the other in the lower estuary consisting of a multispecies assemblage, dominated byOithona davisae, Acartia omorii, Paracalanus parvus, andCalanus sinicus. The gut content composition of the fish in the upper estuary was dominated byS. sinensis, while in the lower estuary, it consisted ofP. parvus, O. davisae, andA. omorii. Within the size group analyzed (13.0–27.0 mm SL), the smaller individuals were found to feed on a mixed diet composed of smaller prey. The diets gradually shifted to bigger prey composed predominantly ofS. sinensis for larger size groups. Greater proportions of empty guts were recorded in the smaller individuals and dropped with increasing fish size. Higher dry biomass of copepods in the environment, as well as higher dry weights of gut contents, were recorded in the upper estuary, indicating that the upper estuarine ETM areas are important nursery grounds for the early life stages of the Japanese temperate bass. The early life stages of the Japanese temperate bass are adapted to use the upstream nursery grounds and ascending to the nursery areas to useS. sinensis is one of the key survival strategies of the Japanese temperate bass in the Chikugo estuary.     

Coupled Ce-Nd isotope systematics and rare earth elements differentiation of the moon

¹³⁸Ce/¹⁴²Ce and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd isotope ratios of lunar samples are determined to constrain the petrogenetic differentiation and evolution of the moon. High-precision Ce-Nd isotope data, well-defined Rb-Sr isochrons, and rare earth elements (REE) abundances of lunar samples show that unexpectedly low La/Ce ratios of evolved lunar highland samples are preserved from at least 3.9 Ga. Precise analysis of REE abundances indicates that the low La/Ce ratio results from a depletion of La relative to other REE. This depletion can be seen in pristine KREEP basalts and Mg-suite rocks from 3.85 to 4.46 Ga. As REE abundances of all these samples are controlled by the presence of a KREEP component, the depletion was probably inherited from a late crystallization sequence of the lunar magma ocean related to the production of the original KREEP component.     

Availability of an equation to evaluate error by optical path discretization in radiative transfer computation based on the successive order of scattering method

The availability of an equation to evaluate the influence of multiple scattering in the single scattering process corresponding to a layer of arbitrary optical thickness was established. In order to confirm the validity of this equation, the radiance distribution in this layer was computed using a plane–parallel layer model based on the successive order of scattering method. The relative errors in a radiance distribution computed were evaluated as a function of optical thickness by the derived equation. It was shown that this equation provides a theoretical background for determining layer thickness using the plane–parallel layer model.