Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe

The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234?C3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard.     

Application of a Monte‐Carlo simulation approach for the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard for geographically distributed portfolio

The conventional integral approach is very well established in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). However, Monte‐Carlo (MC) simulations can become an efficient and flexible alternative against conventional PSHA when more complicated factors (e.g. spatial correlation of ground shaking) are involved. This study aims at showing the implementation of MC simulation techniques for computing the annual exceedance rates of dynamic ground‐motion intensity measures (GMIMs) (e.g. peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration). We use multi‐scale random field technique to incorporate spatial correlation and near‐fault directivity while generating MC simulations to assess the probabilistic seismic hazard of dynamic GMIMs. Our approach is capable of producing conditional hazard curves as well. We show various examples to illustrate the potential use of the proposed procedures in the hazard and risk assessment of geographically distributed structural systems. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从夹卷的角度探讨雾不同阶段微物理量的变化机理

夹卷混合过程作为影响云雾的主要物理过程之一,对云雾的生命周期、云雾降水的形成过程、辐射传输过程和气溶胶间接效应等都有着重要影响。本文从微物理和动力两个方面探讨辐射雾中的夹卷混合机制,既促进对夹卷混合机制的理论认识,又从新的角度来讨论辐射雾的发展消亡过程。利用2006年和2007年冬季在南京进行的雾综合观测的资料,研究了9个个例中的夹卷混合机制。首先,针对2007年12月10～11日这一次辐射雾过程进行详细分析,探讨了不同阶段微物理量的变化和夹卷混合机制。结果表明:成熟阶段主要为极端非均匀夹卷混合机制,数浓度和含水量同时减小,体积平均半径却基本保持不变;快速消散阶段主要为均匀夹卷混合机制,各微物理量同时减小,互为正相关关系。除了微物理,本文也分析了夹卷混合机制的动力特征,计算了过渡尺度数,发现在成熟（快速消散）阶段,过渡尺度数小（大）,有利于极端非均匀（均匀）夹卷混合机制的发生。其次,分析了其他8个个例中微物理量之间的相关关系,发现体积平均半径和含水量之间主要呈正相关关系,以均匀夹卷混合为主。所得结果有助于夹卷混合机制参数化方案的开发,同时为辐射雾的模拟预报提供参考。     

A study on geotechnical characterization and stability of downstream slope of a tailings dam to improve its storage capacity (Turkey)

Tailings, waste products of the ore-dressing processes, are usually stored in a slurry form and pumped into sedimentation pond which is surrounded by natural heights and/or artificial walls. The database of International Commission of Large Dams and United Nations Environment Programme showed that several hundreds of tailings dam have failed since 1910. One of the reasons of these failures is slope instability. Construction of mine tailings dams in Turkey has started to increase, particularly in the recent decade. This paper focuses the study undertaken to assess the geotechnical characteristics and stability of downstream slope of a tailings dam at a copper-zinc mine in the Black Sea Region of Turkey. At the mine site there are two tailings dams located at two different elevations. The upper dam was completely filled and is out of service. Increasing amount of tailings filling the pond of the lower dam resulted in a limited storage, and therefore, it has been decided that heightening of the dam about 7 m to improve its storage facility would be necessary. For the purpose, a series of investigations in the vicinity of the tailings dam and some geomechanical laboratory tests were carried in conjunction with the use of empirical methods to determine mechanical properties of the current dam material, tailings and the rockfill material that will be used for heightening of the dam. The results of the static and pseudo-static stability analyses based on the methods of limit equilibrium and numerical modelling indicated that circular and non-circular failures are the most critical modes of failure for the dam and safety factor gradually decreases when the tailings rise up to a specific elevation in the pond. However, the ranges of the calculated safety factors from both methods are considerably similar and suitable for heightening of the dam by 7 m in terms of stability. The results suggest that any instability is not expected under both static and dynamic conditions after the current height of the tailings dam is increased by 7 m, if the slope geometry considered in the analyses is not changed and the tailings in the pond do not rise up to an elevation of about 475 m. In addition, magnitude of permanent settlement of the dam due to a probable earthquake was also assessed using two empirical methods and the results from both methods showed similar amount of settlements which were in tolerable limits.     

Liquefaction potential evaluation of the quaternary alluvium, Western Ankara (Turkey)

Liquefaction of the soils is a major problem during and after earthquakes, and can lead to severe damage. A wide range of experience in dealing with natural hazards was gained in the capital city of Ankara after several earthquakes occured in Kaman (1938), Gerede (1944), and Duzce (1999), and in later events. The recent findings after the Orta (2000) and Bala (2005, 2007) earthquakes proved that Ankara should not be designated as a nonseismic hazard zone, as it has been previously. The Quaternary age alluvium is located in the nearby suburbs of Etimesgut, Macunkoy, Cuglu, Avdan, and Kazan. A high density of population and structures is spread over this alluvium, which contains a high percentage of cohesive soils associated with sand and gravel lenses. The depths of the groundwater level ranges between 6.0 and 8.0?m in west Etimesgut, 3.0?m in Macunkoy, 5.0 to 7.0?C8.0?m in Cuglu/Avdan, and 4.5?C7.0?m in southern Kazan. The average S wave velocities of the alluvium derived from the ReMi were 140?m/s in Etimesgut, 200?m/s in Macunkoy, 134?m/s in Cuglu/Avdan, and 200?m/s in Kazan, respectively. Liquefaction evaluation is conducted by standard penetration blow count, shear wave velocity, and threshold acceleration. Varying horizontal accelerations of the input motions in the soil stratigraphy were generated via the Quad4m program. Geotechnical investigation and proper soil improvement should be carried out in order to prevent structural damage.     

On Short-Term Periodicity of the Solar Radius Measurements

The aim of the present study is to investigate the short-term periodicity in the solar radius measurements and to compare with the short periods in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and flare index data. The spectral analysis of data sets covering a time interval from 26 February 2000 to 26 October 2007 during Solar Cycle 23 were made by using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT). The power spectrum of solar radius data corrected for the seeing effect gives an evident peak at 25.7 days with the amplitude of 0.034 arcsec, which is slightly different from the peaks of 26.2 and 26.7 days produced by sunspot numbers and sunspot areas data, respectively. Besides, the main peak of 25.7 days detected in the power spectrum of solar radius data is in agreement with the period of 25.5 days, suggested to be the fundamental period of the Sun by Bai and Sturrock (in Nature 350, 141, 1991).     

River suspended sediment load prediction based on river discharge information: application of newly developed data mining models

ABSTRACT

Suspended sediment load (SSL) is one of the essential hydrological processes that affects river engineering sustainability. Sediment has a major influence on the operation of dams and reservoir capacity. This investigation is aimed at exploring a new version of machine learning models (i.e. data mining), including M5P, attribute selected classifier (AS M5P), M5Rule (M5R), and K Star (KS) models for SSL prediction at the Trenton meteorological station on the Delaware River, USA. Different input scenarios were examined based on the river flow discharge and sediment load database. The performance of the applied data mining models was evaluated using various statistical metrics and graphical presentation. Among the applied data mining models, the M5P model gave a superior prediction result. The current and one-day lead time river flow and sediment load were the influential predictors for one-day-ahead SSL prediction. Overall, the applied data mining models achieved excellent predictions of the SSL process.