A stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed

We propose a stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed from the last large seismic event. We state an approximate probability distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing that the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is exponential with a rate depending on the asymptotic slope of the cumulative intensity function corresponding to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. As it is not possible to obtain an empirical cumulative distribution function of the waiting time for the next large earthquake, an estimator of its cumulative distribution function based on existing data is derived. We conduct a simulation study for detecting scenario in which the proposed methodology would perform well. Finally, a real-world data analysis is carried out to illustrate its potential applications, including a homogeneity test for the times between earthquakes.     

The Seismotectonics of the Po Plain (Northern Italy): Tectonic Diversity in a Blind Faulting Domain

We present a systematic and updated overview of a seismotectonic model for the Po Plain (northern Italy). This flat and apparently quiet tectonic domain is, in fact, rather active as it comprises the shortened foreland and foredeep of both the Southern Alps and the Northern Apennines. Assessing its seismic hazard is crucial due to the concentration of population, industrial activities, and critical infrastructures, but it is also complicated because (a) the region is geologically very diverse, and (b) nearly all potential seismogenic faults are buried beneath a thick blanket of Pliocene–Pleistocene sediments, and thus can be investigated only indirectly. Identifying and parameterizing the potential seismogenic faults of the Po Plain requires proper consideration of their depth, geometry, kinematics, earthquake potential and location with respect to the two confronting orogens. To this end, we subdivided them into four main, homogeneous groups. Over the past 15 years we developed new strategies for coping with this diversity, resorting to different data and modeling approaches as required by each individual fault group. The most significant faults occur beneath the thrust fronts of the Ferrara-Romagna and Emilia arcs, which correspond to the most advanced and buried portions of the Northern Apennines and were the locus of the destructive May 2012 earthquake sequence. The largest known Po Plain earthquake, however, occurred on an elusive reactivated fault cutting the Alpine foreland south of Verona. Significant earthquakes are expected to be generated also by a set of transverse structures segmenting the thrust system, and by the deeper ramps of the Apennines thrusts. The new dataset is intended to be included in the next version of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS; http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/, version 3.2.0, developed and maintained by INGV) to improve completeness of potential sources for seismic hazard assessment.     

Effects of pollen leaching and microbial degradation on organic carbon and nutrient availability in lake water

Nutrient fluxes across terrestrial-aquatic boundaries and their subsequent integration into lake nutrient cycles are currently a major topic of aquatic research. Although pollen represents a good substrate for microorganisms, it has been neglected as a terrestrial source of organic matter in lakes. In laboratory experiments, we incubated pollen grains of Pinus sylvestris in water of lakes with different trophy and pH to estimate effects of pollen input and its subsequent microbial degradation on nutrient dynamics. In this ex situ experiment, we measured concentrations of organic carbon, phosphorus and nitrogen in the surrounding water as well as microbial dynamics (bacteria and fungal sporangia) at well-controlled conditions. Besides leaching, chemical and microbial decomposition of pollen was strongest within the first week of incubation. This led to a marked increase of soluble reactive phosphorus and total dissolved nitrogen (up to 0.04 and 1.5 mg L⁻¹, respectively, after 5 days of incubation) in the ambient water. In parallel, pollen grains were rapidly colonized by heterotrophic bacteria and aquatic fungi. Leaching and microbial degradation of pollen accounted for ≥80, ≥40, ≥50% for organic C, N and P, respectively, and did not significantly differ among water samples from the studied lakes. Thus, pollen introduces high amounts of bio-available terrestrial organic matter and nutrients into surface waters within a short time. A rough calculation on P input into oligotrophic Lake Stechlin indicates that pollen plays an important ecological role in nutrient cycling of temperate lakes. This requires further attention in aquatic ecology.     

Experimental testing, numerical modelling and seismic strengthening of traditional stone masonry: comprehensive study of a real Azorian pier

Stone masonry is one of the oldest building techniques used worldwide and it is known to exhibit poor behaviour under seismic excitations. In this context, this work aims at assessing the in-plane behaviour of an existing double-leaf stone masonry pier by experimental testing. Additionally, a detailed 3D finite element numerical analysis based on micro-modelling of the original pier is presented (fully describing the geometry and division of each individual elements, namely infill, blocks and joints) aiming at simulating the experimental test results. This numerical strategy can be seen as an alternative way of analysing this type of constructions, particularly useful for laboratory studies, and suitable for the calibration of simplified numerical models. As part of a wider research activity, this work is further complemented with the presentation of an effective retrofit/strengthening technique (reinforced connected plaster) to achieve a significant improvement of its in-plane cyclic response which is experimentally verified in the results presented herein.     

A strain-induced freshwater pump in the Liverpool Bay ROFI

Liverpool Bay is a region of freshwater influence which receives significant freshwater loading from a number of major English and Welsh rivers. Strong tidal current flow interacts with a persistent freshwater-induced horizontal density gradient to produce strain-induced periodic stratification (SIPS). Recent work (Palmer in Ocean Dyn 60:219–226, 2010; Verspecht et al. in Geophys Res Lett 37:L18602, 2010) has identified significant modification to tidal ellipses in Liverpool Bay during stratification due to an associated reduction in pycnocline eddy viscosity. Palmer (Ocean Dyn 60:219–226, 2010) identified that this modification results in asymmetry in flow in the upper and lower layers capable of permanently transporting freshwater away from the Welsh coastline via a SIPS pumping mechanism. Observational data from a new set of observations from the Irish Sea Observatory site B confirm these results; the measured residual flow is 4.0 cm s⁻¹ to the north in the surface mixed layer and 2.4 cm s⁻¹ to the south in the bottom mixed layer. A realistically forced 3D hydrodynamic ocean model POLCOMS succeeds in reproducing many of the characteristics of flow and vertical density structure at site B and is used to estimate the transport of water through a transect WT that runs parallel with the Welsh coast. Model results show that SIPS is the dominant steady state, occurring for 78.2% of the time whilst enduring stratification exists only 21.0% of the year and enduring mixed periods, <1%. SIPS produces a persistent offshore flow of freshened surface water throughout the year. The estimated net flux of water in the surface mixed layer is 327 km³ year ⁻¹, of which 281 km³ year⁻¹ is attributable to SIPS periods. Whilst the freshwater component of this flux is small, the net flux of freshwater through WT during SIPS is significant, the model estimates 1.69 km³ year⁻¹ of freshwater to be transported away from the coast attributable to SIPS periods equivalent to 23% of annual average river flow from the four catchment areas feeding Liverpool Bay. The results show SIPS pumping to be an important process in determining the fate of freshwater and associated loads entering Liverpool Bay.     

玛曲断裂带土壤气汞、氡地球化学特征

根据汞、氡土壤气在断层上的形成机制,分析了玛曲断裂带土壤气中汞、氡地球化学异常特征,并依据异常判断了断层的位置、产状、性质.与断层的实际剖面所反映的断层规模与性质基本耦合.为评价活断层提供了有益的参考.     

Invertebrate colonization of leaves and roots within sediments of intermittent Coastal Plain streams across hydrologic phases

Ecological flows between habitats are vital for predicting and understanding structure and function of recipient systems. Ecological flows across riparian areas and headwater intermittent streams are likely to be especially important in many river networks because of the shear extent of these interfaces, their high edge-to-width ratio, and the alternation of wet and dry conditions in intermittent channels. While there has been substantial research supporting the importance of riparian-stream linkages above-ground, comparatively less research has investigated below-ground linkages. We tested the hypothesis that riparian roots are colonized by invertebrates as a food source within stream beds of intermittent headwater streams. We compared benthic invertebrate assemblages colonizing three types of buried substrates (leaves, roots, and plastic roots) among three intermittent Coastal Plain streams, each with a different riparian management treatment (clearcut, thinned, and reference), over a 1-year period. Invertebrate density was significantly lower in root litterbags than in plastic roots litterbags, but neither differed from densities in leaf litterbags. Total invertebrate abundances, however, were significantly higher in leaf and root litterbags compared to abundances in plastic root litterbags. Invertebrate biomass and richness did not vary among substrates, but invertebrate density, abundance, and richness all declined from the wet phase (September–December) through the dry phase (June–August). Meiofauna and aquatic dipterans were the primary colonizing invertebrates during the wet phase. Relative abundance of terrestrial taxa increased during the dry phase, but their absolute abundance remained lower than aquatic taxa during the wet phase. Invertebrate composition did not differ among substrate types, but was significantly different among streams and time periods. Cumulative number of dry days, degree days, and redox depth all strongly correlated with assemblage structure as indicated by ordination scores. Our results suggest that subsurface invertebrates respond to leaves and roots as food sources, but assemblage composition is not substrate specific. Colonization of leaves and roots within stream beds by aquatic and terrestrial taxa supports the idea that headwater intermittent streams are important interfaces for the reciprocal exchange of energy and materials between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.     

Bayesian maximum entropy approach and its applications: a review

The present paper reviews the conceptual framework and development of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) approach. BME has been considered as a significant breakthrough and contribution to applied stochastics by introducing an improved, knowledge-based modeling framework for spatial and spatiotemporal information. In this work, one objective is the overview of distinct BME features. By offering a foundation free of restrictive assumptions that limit comparable techniques, an ability to integrate a variety of prior knowledge bases, and rigorous accounting for both exact and uncertain data, the BME approach was coined as introducing modern spatiotemporal geostatistics. A second objective is to illustrate BME applications and adoption within numerous different scientific disciplines. We summarize examples and real-world studies that encompass the perspective of science of the total environment, including atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and ecosphere, while also noting applications that extend beyond these fields. The broad-ranging application track suggests BME as an established, valuable tool for predictive spatial and space–time analysis and mapping. This review concludes with the present status of BME, and tentative paths for future methodological research, enhancements, and extensions.     

Sedimentary and geochemical evidence of Eocene climate change in the Xining Basin,northeastern Tibetan Plateau

The northeastern Tibetan Plateau began to grow during the Eocene and it is important to understand the climatic history of Asia during this period of so-called ‘doubthouse' conditions. However, despite major advances in the last few decades,the evolutionary history and possible mechanisms of Eocene climate change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau remain unclear.The Xining Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau contains a continuous sequence of Early to Late Eocene non-marine sediments which provides the opportunity to resolve long-term climate changes during this period. In this study, we report the results of analyses of lithofacies, sediment color and geochemistry of bulk samples collected from the Xijigou section of the Xining Basin. An abrupt lithofacies change between the Early(~52–40 Ma) and Late Eocene(~40–34 Ma) indicates a change in the depositional environment from a shallow lake to a playa lake in response to a significant climatic shift. During ~52–40 Ma,higher values of sediment redness(a*), redness/lightness(a*/L*) and higher modified Chemical Index of Weathering(CIW′)indicate a relatively warm and humid climate, while from ~40–34 Ma the lower values of a*, a*/L*and lower CIW′ imply subhumid to semi-arid climatic conditions. The paleoclimatic records indicate a long-term(~52–34 Ma) trend of decreasing chemical weathering, consistent with global climate change. An abrupt sharp excursion of the proxy records during ~42–40 Ma suggests a relatively brief warm interval, corresponding to the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum(MECO). We suggest that global cooling substantially reduced humidity in inner Asia, resulting in sub-humid to semi-arid climatic conditions after 40 Ma in the Xining Basin, which may have been responsible for the long-term trend of decreasing chemical weathering during the Eocene.