Optimizing interpolation of shoot density data from a Posidonia oceanica seagrass bed

A case study on the optimization of Posidonia oceanica density interpolation, using a data set from a large meadow at Porto Conte Bay (NW Sardinia, Italy), is presented. Ordinary point kriging, cokriging and a weighted average based on inverse square distance were used to interpolate density data measured in 36 sampling stations. The results obtained from different methods were then compared by means of a leave‐one‐out cross‐validation procedure. The scale at which interpolation was carried out was defined on the basis of the Hausdorff dimension of the variogram. Optimizing spatial scale and data points search strategy allowed obtaining more accurate density estimates independently of the interpolation method.     

Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Western Liguria (North Western Italy): A first attempt towards the understanding and quantification of hazard uncertainty

The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses.     

Origin and significance of poikilitic and mosaic peridotite xenoliths in the western Pannonian Basin: geochemical and petrological evidences

Peridotite xenoliths erupted by alkali basaltic volcanoes in the western Pannonian Basin can be divided into two fundamentally contrasting groups. Geochemical characteristics of the abundant protogranular, porphyroclastic and equigranular nodules suggest that these samples originate from an old consolidated and moderately depleted lithospheric mantle domain. In contrast, the geochemical features of the worldwide rare, but in the Pannonian Basin relatively abundant, poikilitic xenoliths attest to a more complex evolution. It has been argued that the origin of the peculiar texture and chemistry may be intimately linked to melt/rock reactions at successively decreasing liquid volumes in a porous melt flow system. The most likely site where such reactions can take place is the asthenosphere–lithosphere boundary. In this context, poikilitic xenoliths may provide petrological and geochemical evidence for reactions between magmatic liquids issued from the uprising asthenosphere and the solid mantle rocks of the lithosphere. These reactions are important agents of the thermal erosion of the lithosphere; thus, they could have considerably contributed to the thinning of the lithosphere in the Pannonian region. We suggest that in the Pannonian Basin, there could be a strong relation between the unusual abundance of poikilitic mantle xenoliths and the strongly eroded lithosphere.     

Sr-Nd-Pb isotopes from the Radicofani Volcano, Central Italy: constraints on heterogeneities in a veined mantle responsible for the shift from ultrapotassic shoshonite to basaltic andesite magmas in a post-collisional setting

The Radicofani Volcano is characterised by few lava flows, a cinder cone and a denudated neck, and is part of the Tuscan Magmatic Province, the northernmost volcanic region of the Italian peninsula. In spite of the short time span of activity, a large time-dependant chemical and isotopic variability is observed. Most of the rocks of the Radicofani volcano are ultrapotassic shoshonites associated to younger basaltic andesites, found at the bottom of the neck. K₂O contents are positively correlated with trace element and isotopic variations. Shoshonitic and high-K calc-alkaline rocks of the Radicofani volcano are significantly different from shoshonites occurring in association with leucite-bearing ultrapotassic rocks in the southernmost portion of the Roman Magmatic Province. The studied rocks are characterised by high, but variable, levels of incompatible trace elements with a subduction-related signature, with troughs at Ba, Ta, Nb, and Ti, and peaks at Cs, K, Th, U, and Pb. Initial values of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr range from 0.71333 to 0.71588, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ranges from 0.512050 to 0.512183, while the lead isotope ratios vary between 18.672 and 18.716 for ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, 15.665 to 15.696 for ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and 39.981 to 39.081 for ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb. Ultrapotassic shoshonites show the highest incompatible trace element contents coupled with the highest ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and the lowest ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd. On the basis of geochemical and isotopic signatures it is argued that magmas were generated in a modified lithospheric peridotitic source containing metasomatic veins generated by K-rich melts from recycled sediments within the mantle via subduction. A further metasomatic event generated by slab-derived fluids pervasively enriched the peridotitic source. Partial melting of the veins produced leucite-free ultrapotassic magmas (i.e. lamproite), and was triggered by rising of the isotherms after the orogenic front migrated eastward in the Italian Peninsula. Further rise of the isotherms induced larger degrees of partial melting inducing melting of the surrounding wall peridotite. The variation of the degree of partial melting of such a heterogeneous peridotitic source produced a wide spectrum of magma compositions, which mimic a mixing line between two components: ultrapotassic magma from partial melting of the metasomatic vein and a basaltic andesitic magma from partial melting of the surrounding peridotite.     

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.     

Seasonal changes in zooplanktonic alkaline phosphatase activity in Toulon Bay (France): the role of Cypris larvae

We studied zooplankton contribution to the total particulate phosphatase activity, the kinetics of this activity, the relation to the different taxonomic groups and the role of particle-bound bacteria. The activity of total particulate material collected from a liter of seawater was more elevated in May, June and August than during the rest of the year. These high activities resulted from a high contribution of the >90 microm fraction which account then for more than 60% of the total particulate activity. Two Michaelian processes with high and low V(max) were disclosed on this fraction. The high V(max) component was responsible for the high summer activities. During these periods, high densities of cirriped Cypris were found which were statistically correlated with this high V(max) component as with its specific activity. Moreover, the contribution of attached bacteria to these high activities was low. In return, this contribution was predominant during the periods of low activity. A simple method was developed to characterise this bacterial activity.     

Sediment transport at the network scale and its link to channel morphology in the braided Vjosa River system

In this article we apply the CASCADE network-scale sediment connectivity model to the Vjosa River in Albania. The Vjosa is one of the last unimpaired braided rivers in Europe and, at the same time, a data scarce environment, which limits our ability to model how this pristine river might respond to future human disturbance. To initialize the model, we use remotely sensed data and modeled hydrology from a regional model. We perform a reach-by-reach optimization of surface grain size distribution (GSD) and bedload transport capacity to ensure equilibrium conditions throughout the network. In order to account for the various sources of uncertainty in the calculation of transport capacity, we performed a global sensitivity analysis. The modeled GSD distributions generated by the sensitivity analysis generally match the six GSDs measured at different locations within the network. The modeled bedload sediment fluxes increase systematically downstream, and annual fluxes at the outlet of the Vjosa are well within an order of magnitude of fluxes derived from previous estimates of the annual suspended sediment load. We then use the modeled sediment fluxes as input to a set of theoretically derived functions that successfully discriminate between multi-thread and single-thread channel patterns. This finding provides additional validation of the model results by showing a clear connection between modeled sediment concentrations and observed river morphology. Finally, we observe that a reduction in sediment flux of about 50% (e.g., due to dams) would likely cause existing braided reaches to shift toward single thread morphology. The proposed method is widely applicable and opens a new avenue for application of network-scale sediment models that aid in the exploration of river stability to changes in water and sediment fluxes.     

Blood metal levels and metal-influenced immune functions of harbour seals in captivity

Immunological blood parameters and the effects of environmental pollutants on the immune system are important to assess the health status of seals. Animals living permanently in seal centres are useful for development and validation of diagnostic tools for free-ranging animals. In this study, parameters of cellular immunity as well as metal concentrations in blood and metal influence on cell proliferation of seven seals from a seal centre were investigated repeatedly using multi-element analysis and a lymphocyte proliferation assay. The metal concentrations, except for tin and chromium, were in general comparable to those of free-ranging animals of the North Sea. The unstimulated and mitogen-stimulated lymphocyte proliferation showed strong intra- and inter-individual variability, which reflected variability in activation of the immune status. Furthermore, both immunosuppressive and stimulative influences of metals on lymphocytes were found. Summarising, the methods used in this investigation provided useful information on these animals, and their application to free-ranging animals can be recommended.