How Central Asian Orogeny Evolves: New Insights from End-Permian to Middle Triassic Magmatic Record along the Solonker Suture Zone

正Objective The modern Earth is characterized by two types of orogens:collisional orogen and accretionary orogen.It is widely accepted that the Central Asian Orogenic Belt(CAOB)is made up of widespread multiple ancient archipelagos.It has been recognized as a non-collisional orogen,contrasting with the archetypical AlpineHimalayan-type collisional orogens.Although the CAOB is     

Incorporating movement in species distribution models: how do simulations of dispersal affect the accuracy and uncertainty of projections?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are one of the most important GIScience research areas in biogeography and are the primary means by which the potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions and ranges are investigated. Dispersal is an important ecological process for species responding to changing climates, however, SDMs and their subsequent spatial products rarely reflect accessibility to any future suitable environment. Dispersal-related movement can be confounded by factors that vary across landscapes and climates, as well as within and among species, and it has therefore remained difficult to parametrise in SDMs. Here we compared 20 models that have previously been used (or have the potential to be used) to represent dispersal processes in SDM to predict future range shifts in response to climate change. We assessed the different dispersal models in terms of their accuracy at predicting future distributions, as well as the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Atlas data for 50 bird species from 1988 to 1991 in Great Britain were treated as base distributions (t₁), with the species–environment relationships extrapolated (using three commonly used statistical methods) to 2008–2011 (t₂). Dispersal (in the form of the 20 different models) was simulated from the base distribution (t₁) to 2008–2011 (t₂). The results were then combined and used to identify locations that were both abiotically suitable (obtained from the statistical methods) and accessible (obtained from the dispersal models). The accuracy of these coupled projections was assessed with the 2008–2011 atlas data (the observed t₂ distribution). There was substantial variation in the accuracy of the different dispersal models, and in general, the more restrictive dispersal models (e.g. fixed rate dispersal) resulted in lower accuracy for the metrics which reward correct prediction of presences. Ensemble models of the dispersal methods (generated by combining multiple projection outcomes) were created for each species, and a new Ensemble Agreement Index (EAI), which ranges from 0 (no agreement among models) to 1 (full agreement among models) was developed to quantify uncertainty among the projections. EAI values ranged from 0.634 (some areas of disagreement and therefore medium uncertainty among dispersal models) to 0.999 (large areas of agreement and low uncertainty among dispersal models). The results of this research highlight the importance of incorporating dispersal and also illustrate that the method with which dispersal is simulated greatly impacts the projected future distribution. This has important implications for studies aimed at predicting the effects of changing environmental conditions on species’ distributions.     

U- and Th-decay series constraints on the timescales of crystal fractionation to produce the phonolite erupted in 2004 near Tristan da Cunha, South Atlantic Ocean

Phonolite pumice found floating offshore of Tristan da Cunha following intense seismic activity southeast of the island July 29-30, 2004 was analyzed for ²³⁸U- and ²³²Th-series nuclides to determine initial ²³⁰Th, ²²⁶Ra, ²¹⁰Pb, ²¹⁰Po, ²²⁸Ra, and ²²⁸Th activities. The initial (²¹⁰Po/²¹⁰Pb) value of 0.15 for the phonolite shows that, like most subaerial lavas, this subaqueous tephra degassed most of its ²¹⁰Po upon eruption. The (²³⁰Th/²³²Th) and (²³⁸U/²³²Th) values for the phonolite are similar to those of the trachyandesites erupted in 1961 from Tristan da Cunha. However, the relative activities of ²¹⁰Pb, ²²⁶Ra, and ²³⁰Th in the phonolite contrast with those of the trachyandesites, in that ²¹⁰Pb and ²³⁰Th are both strongly enriched with respect to ²²⁶Ra. In addition, the phonolite had a small deficit in ²²⁸Ra with respect to ²³²Th. The Ra deficits likely resulted from partitioning into feldspars and hornblende in a time frame that extended over several decades to a century. These disequilibria can be explained by crystal fractionation at a decreasing rate through time at an average of 3-5 × 10⁻³ year⁻¹. The calculated crystallization rate is about an order of magnitude faster than has been calculated for most other phonolites and trachytes, and about half that calculated for crystallization of the Makaopuhi lava lake. These data imply that the 2004 magma was not the differentiated cap of a much larger body that remained at depth. Instead, it was likely the residue of a relatively small body of more mafic magma that was injected into the crust southeast Tristan and underwent extensive and rapid crystal fractionation before it erupted.     

Primordial compositions of refractory inclusions

Bulk chemical and O-, Mg- and Si-isotopic compositions were measured for each of 17 Types A and B refractory inclusions from CV3 chondrites. After bulk chemical compositions were corrected for non-representative sampling in the laboratory, the Mg- and Si-isotopic compositions of each inclusion were used to calculate its original chemical composition assuming that the heavy-isotope enrichments of these elements are due to Rayleigh fractionation that accompanied their evaporation from CMAS liquids. The resulting pre-evaporation chemical compositions are consistent with those predicted by equilibrium thermodynamic calculations for high-temperature nebular condensates, but only if different inclusions condensed from nebular regions that ranged in total pressure from 10⁻⁶ to 10⁻¹ bar, regardless of whether they formed in a system of solar composition or in one enriched in dust of ordinary chondrite composition relative to gas by a factor of 10 compared to solar composition. This is similar to the range of total pressures predicted by dynamic models of the solar nebula for regions whose temperatures are in the range of silicate condensation temperatures. Alternatively, if departure from equilibrium condensation and/or non-representative sampling of condensates in the nebula occurred, the inferred range of total pressure could be smaller. Simple kinetic modeling of evaporation successfully reproduces observed chemical compositions of most inclusions from their inferred pre-evaporation compositions, suggesting that closed-system isotopic exchange processes did not have a significant effect on their isotopic compositions. Comparison of pre-evaporation compositions with observed ones indicates that 80% of the enrichment in refractory CaO + Al₂O₃ relative to more volatile MgO + SiO₂ is due to initial condensation and 20% due to subsequent evaporation for both Types A and B inclusions.     

SHRIMP U-Pb Zircon Dating of the Blueschists in the Heilongjiang High-pressure Metamorphic belt, NE China and its Tectonic Implications

The Heilongjiang complex is a sequence of high-pressure (HP) metamorphic rocks, locatated along the suture zone that separates the Jiamusi-Khanka and Shongliao-Zhangguangcai blocks in NE China. The lithologic association and major and trace element composition of the blueschist facies rocks indicate they were metabasalts. The trace element data show they are of OIB and E-MORB affinity, most likely intra-oeeanic basalts that formed at the western margin of the Jiamusi block. The sequences of the Heilongiiang complex mainly consist of the marie-ultramafie rocks, OIB and E-MORB affinity basalts and Radiolarian-bearing quartzite in protolith, most likely the subduction complex.     

CATS: GPS coordinate time series analysis software

Over the last 10 years, several papers have established that daily estimates of GPS coordinates are temporally correlated and it is therefore incorrect to assume that the observations are independent when estimating parameters from them. A direct consequence of this assumption is the over-optimistic estimation of the parameter uncertainties. Perhaps the perceived computational burden or the lack of suitable software for time series analysis has resulted in many heuristic methods being proposed in the scientific literature for estimating these uncertainties. We present a standalone C program, CATS, developed to study and compare stochastic noise processes in continuous GPS coordinate time series and, as a consequence, assign realistic uncertainties to parameters derived from them. The name originally stood for Create and Analyze Time Series. Although the name has survived, the creation aspect of the software has, after several versions, been abandoned. The implementation of the method is briefly described to aid understanding and an example of typical input, usage, output and the available stochastic noise models are given.     

Mapping ecosystem services at the regional scale: the validity of an upscaling approach

Mapping ecosystem services (ES) over large scales is important for environmental monitoring but is often prohibitively expensive and difficult. We test a hybrid, low-cost method of mapping ES indicators over large scales in Pará State, Brazil. Four ES indicators (vegetation carbon stocks, biodiversity index, soil chemical quality index and rates of water infiltration into soil) were measured in the field and then summarized spatially for regional land-cover classes derived from satellite imagery. The regionally mapped ES values correlated strongly with independent and local measures of ES. For example, regional estimates of the vegetation carbon stocks are strongly correlated with actual measures derived from field samples and validation data (significant anova test – p-value = 4.51^e?9) and differed on average by only 20 Mg/ha from the field data. Our spatially-nested approach provides reliable and accurate maps of ES at both local and regional scales. Local maps account for the specificities of an area while regional maps provide an accurate generalization of an ES’ state. Such up-scaling methods infuse large-scale ES maps with localized data and enable the estimation of uncertainty of at regional scales. Our approach is first step towards the spatial characterization of ES at large and potentially global scales.     

Global Resource Assessments of Primary Metals: An Optimistic Reality Check

The mining of primary metals is critical for a range of modern infrastructure and goods and the continuing growth in global population and consumption means that these primary metals are expected to remain in high demand. However, metallic deposits are, in essence, finite and non-renewable—leading to some concern that we may run out of a given metal in the future. Here, we address this concern by presenting a brief review of the reporting of mineral resource estimates, compiling detailed datasets for national and global trends in mineral resources for numerous metals, and present detailed case studies of major mining projects or fields. The evidence clearly shows strong growth in known mineral resources and cumulative production over time rather than any evidence of gradual resource depletion. In addition, the key factors that already govern existing mining projects and mineral resources are certainly social, environmental and economic in nature rather than geological or related to physical resource depletion. Overall, there is great room for optimism in terms of humankind’s ability to supply future generations with the metals they will require.     

Preflare activity of solar prominences

The preflare activity of a plage filament is analysed from H observations made with the Multichannel Subtractive Double Pass Spectrograph (MSDP) of the Meudon Solar Tower. The June 22, 1980 event is studied and interpreted in terms of preflare heating of a filament, connected to the rise of emerging flux, and the relative approach of pores of different magnetic polarity, prior to the onset of a two-ribbon flare.The region with enhanced magnetic field, around the filament, begins to brighten slowly 20 min before the triggering of the flare, in the center of H. Filament dark material begins to rise rapidly while the brightest point on one side drifts towards it, 6 min before the onset of the two-ribbon flare. Simultaneously the absorbing material separates from the remaining part of the filament.In the discussion, we suggest that most of the observed features may be the consequence of emergence of new magnetic flux and the related reconnection processes.     

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5?×?0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km² of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km² of cropland, and the change in risk varies between ?9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.