Assessment of climate change impacts on the quantity and quality of a coastal catchment using a coupled groundwater–surface water model

The hydrology of coastal catchments is influenced by both sea level and climate. Hence, a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on coastal catchments is a challenging task. In the present study, a coupled groundwater–surface water model is forced by dynamically downscaled results from a general circulation model. The effects on water quantity and quality of a relatively large lake used for water supply are analyzed. Although stream inflow to the lake is predicted to decrease during summer, the storage capacity of the lake is found to provide a sufficient buffer to support sustainable water abstraction in the future. On the other hand, seawater intrusion into the stream is found to be a significant threat to the water quality of the lake, possibly limiting its use for water supply and impacting the aquatic environment. Additionally, the results indicate that the nutrient load to the lake and adjacent coastal waters is likely to increase significantly, which will increase eutrophication and have negative effects on the surface water ecology. The hydrological impact assessment is based on only one climate change projection; nevertheless, the range of changes generated by other climate models indicates that the predicted results are a plausible realization of climate change impacts. The problems identified here are expected to be relevant for many coastal regimes, where the hydrology is determined by the interaction between saline and fresh groundwater and surface water systems.     

Change and variability in sea ice during the 2007–2008 Canadian International Polar Year program

In this paper we describe sea ice change and variability during the Canadian International Polar Year (IPY) program and examine several regional and hemispheric causes of this change. In a companion paper (Barber et al., Climate Change 2012) we present an overview of the consequences of this observed change and variability on ecosystem function, climatically relevant gas exchange, habitats of primary and apex predators, and impacts on northern peoples. Sea ice-themed research projects within the fourth IPY were designed to be among the most diverse international science programs. They greatly enhanced the exchange of Inuit knowledge and scientific ideas across nations and disciplines. This interdisciplinary and cultural exchange helped to explain and communicate the impacts of a transition of the Arctic Ocean and ecosystem to a seasonally ice-free state, the commensurate replacement of perennial with annual sea ice types and the causes and consequences of this globally significant metamorphosis. This paper presents a synthesis of scientific sea ice research and traditional knowledge results from Canadian-led IPY projects between 2007 and 2009. In particular, a summary of sea ice trends, basin-wide and regional, is presented in conjunction with Inuit knowledge of sea ice, gathered from communities in northern Canada. We focus on the recent observed changes in sea ice and discuss some of the causes of this change including atmospheric and oceanic forcing of both dynamic and thermodynamic forcing on the ice. Pertinent results include: 1) In the Amundsen Gulf, at the western end of the Northwest Passage, open water persists longer than normal and winter sea ice is thinner and more mobile. 2) Large areas of summer sea ice are becoming heavily decayed during summer and can be broken up by long-period waves being generated in the now extensive open water areas of the Chukchi Sea. 3) Cyclones play an important role in flaw leads??regions of open water between pack ice and land-fast ice. They delay the formation of new ice and the growth of multi-year ice. 4) Feedbacks involving the increased period of open water, long-period wave generation, increased open-ocean roughness, and the precipitation of autumn snow are all partially responsible for the observed reduction in multiyear sea ice. 5) The atmosphere is observed as remaining generally stable throughout the winter, preventing vertical entrainment of moisture above the surface.     

Lost in the mix: will the technologies of carbon dioxide capture and storage provide us with a breathing space as we strive to make the transition from fossil fuels to renewables?

This paper explores concepts of carbon lock-in arising from the technologies of CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). We examine the argument that CCS reduces carbon lock-in and the calls for a CCS ‘mandate’ and emission performance standards. We analyse the pros- and cons- of a low-carbon fossil fuel lock-in, arguing that lock-in per se is not the problem; it is rather the depth of lock-in which creates problems because deeper lock-in reduces flexibility and increases the ‘error cost’ (i.e. the cost of a decision which turns out to be based on incorrect understanding) and should be avoided. A set of technical and institutional indicators for measuring the flexibility of different technologies is then presented and applied to three technologies: a landfill gas power generator, a conventional nuclear power plant and a CCS plant under development in California. We conclude that these indicators are a useful way forward in assessing individual projects and that public authorities and other stakeholders might wish to employ some version of these indicators in their deliberations on the role of CCS.     

An examination by GC×GC-TOFMS of organic molecules present inhighly degraded oils emerging from Caribbean terrestrial seeps of Cretaceous age

For our ancestors, oil seeps were both a fascination and a resource but as the planet's reserves of high quality low density oil becomes increasingly depleted, so there is now a renewed interest in heavier,biodegraded oils such as those encountered in terrestrial seeps. One such seep is Pitch Lake in the Caribbean island of Trinidad, which is the largest natural deposit of asphalt in the world. At the northern end of the Caribbean, oil emerges along a tectonic contact on the island on Cuba. The sources of the oils from these seeps are relatively recent and both are subject to intense weathering due to the tropical conditions. When analysed by gas chromatography(GC) both oils appear as unresolved complex mixtures(UCM) and show a very high degree of biodegradation thus presenting an analytical challenge. In this case study, these two Caribbean seep oils were analysed by comprehensive two dimensional GC with time of flight mass spectrometry(GC×GC-TOFMS) to expose many thousands of the individual compounds that comprise the UCM. The high chromatographic resolution of the GC×GC-TOFMS produced good quality mass spectra allowing many compounds including molecular fossil ‘biomarkers' to be identified. Compound classes included diamondoid hydrocarbons, demethylated hopanes and secohopanes, mono-and tri-aromatic steroids. D-ring aromatised structures of the 8,14-seco-hopanes,including demethylated forms were present in both oils but further demethylation, probably at position C-25 during biodegradation, was only observed in the Pitch Lake oil. Many polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs) were absent although the fungal-derived pentacyclic PAH perylene was present in both oils. The presence of the angiosperm biomarker lupane in the Pitch Lake oil constrained the age to the Late Cretaceous. The higher degree of biodegradation observed in the Cuban oil was likely due to relatively slow anaerobic processes whereas oil within Pitch Lake was probably subject to additional more rapid aerobic metabolism within the lake.     

The surface archaeological record in arid Australia: Geomorphic controls on preservation,exposure, and visibility

The conventional approach to assessing the archaeological record in most parts of the world involves a combination of excavation of stratified deposits and extensive survey of surface deposits. Although widely applied in Australia, in both research‐based and management archaeology, the method does not conform well to the nature of the surface archaeological record here. Over much of semi‐arid and arid Australia, archaeological “sites” are, in fact, accretion phenomena that are not easily interpreted as the outcome of short‐term behavioral events. Using results from twelve years of geoarchaeological research in western New South Wales, we demonstrate that there is considerable variability in landsurface age, and hence the “availability” of archaeological surfaces, over relatively short distances. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that stone artifact deposits, for example, that appear to be similar in character are of similar age. Data are also presented that demonstrate that the presence of artifacts on the surface, their apparent absence in sediments buried beneath the surface, and the apparent recent ubiquity of the archaeological record are all a function of geomorphic processes that, at the same time, expose some artifact deposits at the surface and erode and bury others amid large volumes of sediment. Interpreting the surface artifact record within a spatial and temporal geomorphic framework is crucial to understanding the past human behavior that the artifact deposits represent. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

EFFECT OF DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL RESOLUTION ON EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION OF SOIL LOSS AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT WITH GIS

The horizontal accuracy of topographic data represented by digital elevation model (DEM) resolution brings about uncertainties in landscape process modeling with raster GIS. This paper presents a study on the effect of topographic variability on cell-based empirical estimation of soil loss and sediment transport. An original DEM of 10m resolution for a case watershed was re-sampled to three realizations of higher grid sizes for a comparative examination. Equations based on the USLE are applied to the watershed to calculate soil loss from each cell and total sediment transport to streams. The study found that the calculated total soil loss from the watershed decreases with the increasing DEM resolution with a linear correlation as spatial variability is reduced by cell aggregation. The USLE topographic factors (LS) extracted from applied DEMs represent spatial variability, and determine the estimations as shown in the modeling results. The commonly used USGS 30m DEM appears to be able to reflect essential spatial variability and suitable for the empirical estimation. The appropriateness of a DEM resolution is dependent upon specific landscape characteristics, applied model and its parameterization. This work attempts to provide a general framework for the research in the DEM-based empirical modeling.     

Urban land use/land cover changes in the Tema metropolitan area (1990–2010)

Land use and land cover changes are local and place specific, occurring incrementally in ways that often escape our attention. This study sought to detect changes in land cover in the Tema Metropolis of Ghana from 1990 to 2010. Multispectral Landsat Thematic Mapper data sets of 1990, 2000 and 2007 were acquired, pre-processed and enhanced. Unsupervised classification of the images was performed and six land cover classes (water, wetlands, closed vegetation, open vegetation, cropped lands, and built-up) were derived. The post-classification change detection technique was performed to derive the changes in land cover and their corresponding change matrices. Between 1990 and 2010, built-up areas expanded steadily to become the most prevalent land cover type in the metropolis, reducing vegetation cover dramatically. High population growth with its attendant rise in the demand for housing, and increasing commercial activities, were found to have influenced land cover changes over the period.     

Thermal anomalies and paleoclimatic diffusive and advective phenomena: example of the Anglo-Paris Basin,northern France

This study is the first quantification of the combined impact of diffusive and advective paleoclimatic phenomena to explain the weak vertical thermal flux anomaly in the upper part of the Anglo-Paris intracratonic sedimentary basin in northern France. The aim of the research is to understand the mechanisms at the origin of the thermal flux anomaly at the level of the Meso-Cenozoic sediment pile. Based on a temperature profile representative of the basin, transient thermo-hydraulic simulations were performed along a representative vertical cross-section of about 400 km within the Lower Cretaceous multi-layer aquifer. Four paleoclimatic scenarios are the combination of two paleotemperature climatic forcings and two hydrodynamic regimes, one of them taking into account the interruption of the recharge linked to permafrost development. The simulation results clearly show the transient nature of the basin’s thermal regime. Then, for the reference well, the majority of the thermal flux anomaly can be explained by advective and paleoclimatic mechanisms with a decrease in geothermal flux simulated up to a little over 30 mW/m², depending on the scenarios. Decrease in heat flux because of basin-scale subsurface flows in the Lower Cretaceous is around 15 mW/m². There are several ways forward from this first simple model, including simulation of development of permafrost and also the integration of vertical flows in the basin by use of a three-dimensional model to better explain the data.     

Modified acid–base accounting model validation and pH buffer trend characterisation in mine drainage at the AngloGold Ashanti Obuasi mine in Ghana,West Africa

Acid–base accounting (ABA) is a static test used to evaluate pre-mining drainage quality of ores with interpretations based on a reference 3-data point model. The method is often complemented with a kinetic test to ensure certainty of results. The challenges associated with both methods compel companies to rely on only the ABA test, thereby compromising on the long-term drainage quality. This paper validates a proposed 4-data point model that was used to establish a 20% increase in the alkaline amendment of ores at the AngloGold Ashanti Obuasi Mine in Ghana. The validation was done using model limits, the robustness of coefficient of determination and model factor sequence variation. Acidification trends and mineralogical data evaluation of tailings were used to characterise pH buffer trends in mine drainage. The modified 4-data point model, which incorporates a vital kinetic test factor into the ABA model, provides a criterion for the adjustment of carbonate amendment value to improve acid neutralisation in the drainage; this would reduce (1) cost of experimentation, (2) turnaround time for analyses, (3) complexities associated with both test methods. From the XRD data, alunite and goethite are present in tailings to provide sustained pH buffering in drainage beyond the scope of the modified model, while the characterised pH buffer trend could be used for monitoring drainage quality.