Constraints of Housing Age and Migration on Residential Mobility

This paper investigates the role of housing age in constraining residential mobility, measured as the percent of households that have moved into their homes in the past 15 months. The leading explanation for why mobility rates differ so much among regions of the United States has been the overall level of growth. The present analysis shows that the growth effect operates through both the newness of population (migration) and the newness of housing available for occupancy by all local residents. The posited explanation for this housing age effect is that progressively older units contain increasingly settled occupants, yielding fewer opportunities for in-movers in areas with older housing. It is empirically demonstrated that households in older housing have lower likelihood of recent mobility even after controlling for age, tenure, migration status, and state location of residence. The analysis reveals the temporal interdependency of mobility, migration, person age, and housing age.     

The efficiency of the spiral-in of a black hole to the Galactic Centre

We study the efficiency at which a black hole or dense star cluster spirals in to the Galactic Centre. This process takes place on a dynamical friction time-scale, which depends on the value of the Coulomb logarithm (ln Λ). We determine the accurate value of this parameter using the direct N -body method, a tree algorithm and a particle-mesh technique with up to two million plus one particles. The three different techniques are in excellent agreement. Our measurement for the Coulomb logarithm appears to be independent of the number of particles. We conclude that  ln Λ= 6.6 ± 0.6  for a massive point particle in the inner few parsec of the Galactic bulge. For an extended object, such as a dense star cluster, ln Λ is smaller, with a value of the logarithm argument Λ inversely proportional to the object size.     

Forecasting Groundwater Temperature with Linear Regression Models Using Historical Data

Although temperature is an important determinant of many biogeochemical processes in groundwater, very few studies have attempted to forecast the response of groundwater temperature to future climate warming. Using a composite linear regression model based on the lagged relationship between historical groundwater and regional air temperature data, empirical forecasts were made of groundwater temperature in several aquifers in Switzerland up to the end of the current century. The model was fed with regional air temperature projections calculated for greenhouse‐gas emissions scenarios A2, A1B, and RCP3PD. Model evaluation revealed that the approach taken is adequate only when the data used to calibrate the models are sufficiently long and contain sufficient variability. These conditions were satisfied for three aquifers, all fed by riverbank infiltration. The forecasts suggest that with respect to the reference period 1980 to 2009, groundwater temperature in these aquifers will most likely increase by 1.1 to 3.8 K by the end of the current century, depending on the greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario employed.     

Report of the International Astronomical Union Division I Working Group on Precession and the Ecliptic

The IAU Working Group on Precession and the Equinox looked at several solutions for replacing the precession part of the IAU 2000A precession–nutation model, which is not consistent with dynamical theory. These comparisons show that the (Capitaine et al., Astron. Astrophys., 412, 2003a) precession theory, P03, is both consistent with dynamical theory and the solution most compatible with the IAU 2000A nutation model. Thus, the working group recommends the adoption of the P03 precession theory for use with the IAU 2000A nutation. The two greatest sources of uncertainty in the precession theory are the rate of change of the Earth’s dynamical flattening, ΔJ₂, and the precession rates (i.e. the constants of integration used in deriving the precession). The combined uncertainties limit the accuracy in the precession theory to approximately 2 mas cent⁻². Given that there are difficulties with the traditional angles used to parameterize the precession, z_A, ζ_A, and θ_A, the working group has decided that the choice of parameters should be left to the user. We provide a consistent set of parameters that may be used with either the traditional rotation matrix, or those rotation matrices described in (Capitaine et al., Astron. Astrophys., 412, 2003a) and (Fukushima Astron. J., 126, 2003). We recommend that the ecliptic pole be explicitly defined by the mean orbital angular momentum vector of the Earth–Moon barycenter in the Barycentric Celestial Reference System (BCRS), and explicitly state that this definition is being used to avoid confusion with previous definitions of the ecliptic. Finally, we recommend that the terms precession of the equator and precession of the ecliptic replace the terms lunisolar precession and planetary precession, respectively.     

Wollastonite at Nuliyam,Kerala, southern India: a reassessment of CO2-infiltration and charnockite formation at a classic locality

The occurrence of a charnockitised felsic gneiss adjacent to a marble/calc-silicate horizon at Nuliyam, southern India, has been cited in recent literature as a classic example of the dehydration of crustal rocks resulting from the advective infiltration of CO₂-rich fluids generated from a local carbonate source. Petrographic study of the Nuliyam calc-silicate, however, reveals it to consist of abundant wollastonite and scapolite and contain locally discordant veins rich in wollastonite. At the pressure—temperature conditions proposed for charnockite formation in recent studies, 5 kbar and 725°C, this wollastonite-bearing mineral assemblage was stable in the presence of a fluid phase only if X _CO2 was near 0.25 and could not have coexisted with the fluid causing biotite breakdown and charnockite development in adjacent rocks (X _CO2>0.85). The stable coexistence of wollastonite and scapolite prohibits the calc-silicate from being a source for fluid driving charnockitisation at the required P-T conditions. Textural observations such as the limited replacement of wollastonite by calcite+quartz symplectites and mosaics, are consistent with late fluid infiltration into the calc-silicate. The extensive isotopic, chemical and mineral abundance data of Jackson and Santosh (1992) are re-interpreted and integrated with these observations to develop a model involving the infiltration of an externally derived CO₂-rich fluid during high-temperature decompression. Increased charnockite development next to the calc-silicate has arisen because the calc-silicate acted as a relatively unreactive and impermeable barrier to fluid transport and caused fluid ponding beneath antiformal closures. The Nuliyam charnockite/calc-silicate locality is an example of a structural trap in a metamorphic setting rather than a site where charnockite formation can be attributed to local fluid sources.     

Mobile evaporite controls on the structural style and evolution of rift basins: Danish Central Graben,North Sea

The Southern Tail‐End Graben, Danish Central Graben, is characterized by a lateral variation in the thickness and mobility of pre‐rift Zechstein Supergroup evaporites, allowing investigation of how supra‐basement evaporite variability influences rift structural style and tectono‐stratigraphy. The study area is divided into two structural domains based on interpretations of the depositional thickness and mobility of the Zechstein Supergroup. Within each domain, we examine the overall basin morphology and the structural styles in the pre‐Zechstein and supra‐Zechstein (cover) units. Furthermore, integration of two‐way travel‐time (TWT)‐structure and ‐thickness maps allows fault activity and evaporite migration maps to be generated for pre‐ and syn‐rift stratal units within the two domains, permitting constraints to be placed on: (i) the timing of activity on pre‐Zechstein and cover faults and (ii) the onset, duration and migration direction of mobile evaporites. The northern domain is interpreted to be free from evaporite‐influence, and has developed in a manner typical of brittle‐only, basement‐involved rifts. Syn‐rift basins display classical half‐graben geometries bounded by thick‐skinned faults. In contrast, the southern domain is interpreted to be evaporite‐influenced, and cover structure reflects a southward increase in the thickness and mobility of the Zechstein Supergroup evaporites. Fault‐related and evaporite‐related folding is prominent in the southern domain, together with variable degrees of decoupling of sub‐Zechstein and cover fault and fold systems. The addition of mobile evaporites to the rift results in: (i) complex and spatially variable modes of tectono‐stratigraphic evolution; (ii) syn‐rift stratal geometries which are condensed above evaporite swells and over‐thickened in areas of withdrawal; (iii) compartmentalized syn‐rift depocentres; and (iv) masking of rift‐related megasequence boundaries. Through demonstrating these deviations from the characteristics of rifts free from evaporite influence, we highlight the first order control evaporites may exert upon rift structural style and the distribution and thicknesses of syn‐rift units.     

Reaction textures in scapolite–wollastonite–grossular calc-silicate rock from the Kerala Khondalite Belt, Southern India: evidence for high-temperature metamorphism and initial cooling

Scapolite–wollastonite–grossular bearing calc-silicate rocks from the Vellanad area in the Kerala Khondalite Belt (KKB) of Southern India preserve a number of reaction textures which help to deduce their P–T–fluid history. Textures include calcite+plagioclase±quartz symplectites after scapolite, grossular+quartz coronas between wollastonite and plagioclase, grossular coronas between wollastonite and plagioclase+calcite that replace former scapolite, and grossular blebs replacing anorthite+calcite+quartz pseudomorphs of scapolite. Garnet coronas are also observed between clinopyroxene and wollastonite or scapolite or plagioclase. The reactions, apart from those involving clinopyroxene, can be modelled in the simple CaO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–CO₂ system and interpreted using partial reaction grids constructed for the activities of end-members in the analysed phases. The reaction topologies produced are good approximations for the peak as well as retrograde mineral assemblages and reaction textures. For the compositions of the phases present in this study, the medium pressure calc-silicate assemblages are defined by the stable pseudo-invariant points [Qtz], [Mei] and [Grs]. The textural features interpreted using these activity-corrected grids indicate a phase of isobaric cooling from about 835°C to 750°C at 6 kbar in the Vellanad area. This is inconsistent with earlier studies on other lithologies from the KKB, most of which imply a post-peak P–T path involving near-isothermal decompression. However, as the temperatures obtained for the KKB from the calc-silicates are higher than those previously deduced from metapelites and garnet–orthopyroxene assemblages, the phase of near-isobaric cooling reported here is inferred to have proceeded prior to the onset of the decompression documented from studies of other rock types.     

Vulnerability of population and transportation infrastructure at the east bank of Delaware Bay due to coastal flooding in sea-level rise conditions

Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey.