An integrated 1D–2D hydraulic modelling approach to assess the sensitivity of a coastal region to compound flooding hazard under climate change

Coastal regions are dynamic areas that often lie at the junction of different natural hazards. Extreme events such as storm surges and high precipitation are significant sources of concern for flood management. As climatic changes and sea-level rise put further pressure on these vulnerable systems, there is a need for a better understanding of the implications of compounding hazards. Recent computational advances in hydraulic modelling offer new opportunities to support decision-making and adaptation. Our research makes use of recently released features in the HEC-RAS version 5.0 software to develop an integrated 1D–2D hydrodynamic model. Using extreme value analysis with the Peaks-Over-Threshold method to define extreme scenarios, the model was applied to the eastern coast of the UK. The sensitivity of the protected wetland known as the Broads to a combination of fluvial, tidal and coastal sources of flooding was assessed, accounting for different rates of twenty-first century sea-level rise up to the year 2100. The 1D–2D approach led to a more detailed representation of inundation in coastal urban areas, while allowing for interactions with more fluvially dominated inland areas to be captured. While flooding was primarily driven by increased sea levels, combined events exacerbated flooded area by 5–40% and average depth by 10–32%, affecting different locations depending on the scenario. The results emphasise the importance of catchment-scale strategies that account for potentially interacting sources of flooding.

     

Garnet-bearing tonalitic porphyry from East Kunlun,Northeast Tibetan Plateau: implications for adakite and magmas from the MASH Zone

A garnet-bearing tonalitic porphyry from the Achiq Kol area, northeast Tibetan Plateau has been dated by SHRIMP U-Pb zircon techniques and gives a Late Triassic age of 213 ± 3 Ma. The porphyry contains phenocrysts of Ca-rich, Mn-poor garnet (CaO > 5 wt%; MnO < 3 wt%), Al-rich hornblende (Al₂O₃ ~ 15.9 wt%), plagioclase and quartz, and pressure estimates for hornblende enclosing the garnet phenocrysts yield values of 8–10 kbar, indicating a minimum pressure for the garnet. The rock has SiO₂ of 60–63 wt%, low MgO (<2.0 wt%), K₂O (<1.3 wt%), but high Al₂O₃ (>17 wt%) contents, and is metaluminous to slightly peraluminous (ACNK = 0.89–1.05). The rock samples are enriched in LILE and LREE but depleted in Nb and Ti, showing typical features of subduction-related magmas. The relatively high Sr/Y (~38) ratios and low HREE (Yb < 0.8 ppm) contents suggest that garnet is a residual phase, while suppressed crystallization of plagioclase and lack of negative Eu anomalies indicate a high water fugacity in the magma. Nd–Sr isotope compositions of the rock (εNd_T = −1.38 to −2.33; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i = 0.7065–0.7067) suggest that both mantle- and crust-derived materials were involved in the petrogenesis, which is consistent with the reverse compositional zoning of plagioclase, interpreted to indicate magma mixing. Both garnet phenocrysts and their ilmenite inclusions contain low MgO contents which, in combination with the oxygen isotope composition of garnet separates (+6.23‰), suggests that these minerals formed in a lower crust-derived felsic melt probably in the MASH zone. Although the rock samples are similar to adakitic rocks in many aspects, their moderate Sr contents (<260 ppm) and La/Yb ratios (mostly 16–21) are significantly lower than those of adakitic rocks. Because of high partition coefficients for Sr and LREE, fractionation of apatite at an early stage in the evolution of the magma may have effectively decreased both Sr and LREE in the residual melt. It is suggested that extensive crystallization of apatite as an early phase may prevent some arc magmas from evolving into adakitic rocks even under high water fugacity.     

Regional modelling of permafrost thicknesses over the past 130 ka: implications for permafrost development in Great Britain

The greatest thicknesses of permafrost in Great Britain most likely occurred during the last glacial–interglacial cycle, as this is when some of the coldest conditions occurred during the last 1 000 000 years. The regional development of permafrost across Great Britain during the last glacial–interglacial cycle was modelled from a ground surface temperature history based on mean annual temperatures and the presence of glacier ice. To quantify the growth and decay of permafrost, modelling was undertaken at six locations across Great Britain that represent upland glaciated, lowland glaciated, upland unglaciated and lowland unglaciated conditions. Maximum predicted permafrost depths derived in this academic study range between several tens of metres to over 100 m depending upon various factors including elevation, glacier ice cover, geothermal heat flux and air temperature. In general, the greatest maximum permafrost thicknesses occur at upland glaciated locations, with minimum thickness at lowland sites. Current direct geological evidence for permafrost is from surface or shallow processes, mainly associated with the active layer. Further research is recommended to identify the imprint of freeze/thaw conditions in permanently frozen porous rocks from beneath the active layer.     

Numerical modelling of the application of capillary barrier systems for prevention of rainfall-induced slope instability

Acta Geotechnica - The most common cause of slope instability is intense or sustained rainfall, which may induce reduction in soil suction, and thus, shear strength. Capillary barrier systems...     

Endmember graphics

Thek points inp-space corresponding to a specified set ofk (k<p) linearly independent endmember estimates associated with ap-variate (n×p) compositional datasetX, define the vertices of a (k?1) dimensional simplexH. Then estimated mixtures which together account for the systematic variation in the datasetX, are each convex combinations of thek fixed endmember estimates. Accordingly, then-points inp-space which represent these mixtures must be interior points of the simplexH. The purpose of this paper is to describe a simple graphical procedure for examining the positions of the estimated mixtures relative tok=3 or 4 putative endmembers, and for assessing their compliance or otherwise with the convexity constraints. Since the mixture coefficients must be estimated first in order to obtain the mixture estimates, the paper begins with a review of the least-squares partitioning procedure.     

Description of an aerodynamic levitation apparatus with applications in Earth sciences

Background  

In aerodynamic levitation, solids and liquids are floated in a vertical gas stream. In combination with CO₂-laser heating, containerless melting at high temperature of oxides and silicates is possible. We apply aerodynamic levitation to bulk rocks in preparation for microchemical analyses, and for evaporation and reduction experiments.     

Late Dinantian palaeokarst of England and Wales: implications for exposure surface development

Palaeokarst is an important feature of late Dinantian exposure surfaces. Soil-filled depressions are widely developed. These are comparable to modern day solution dolines and were probably interspersed by areas of relatively bare limestone pavement. The palaeokarst primarily exhibits a smooth, mamillated to potholed surface form, consistent with its formation beneath a soil cover. Areas between the depressions have been extensively stylolitised and would likely have originally been characterized by small-scale fretted and sculpted karren forms typical of subaerial karstification. Palaeokarst pits making up the depressions are thought to have been initiated through stem-flow drainage from trees. Rain water, intercepted by the crown of the tree, was concentrated at specific sites on the emergent surface and dissolution beneath the trunk produced cylindrical pits that propagated vertically downwards. Trees responsible for concentrating drainage may also have enhanced the acidic nature of the rain water through leaching of organic acids from foliar and woody tissues. Downward propagation of the pits was limited to the uppermost 1–2 m and enlargement primarily occurred through lateral amalgamation of adjacent pits. Once initiated, continued development of the depressions would have been self perpetuating; the preferential accumulation of volcanic ash and organic matter enhancing water retention and encouraging further vegetation growth. In contrast, intervening areas would have been characterized by slow vertical denudation only. Karstification likely took of the order of a few hundred years in the case of potholed palaeokarstic surfaces formed solely by stem-flow drainage, to a few tens of thousands of years where the palaeokarst is more mature.     

Do paleoclimate proxies agree? A test comparing 19 late Holocene climate and sea‐ice reconstructions from Icelandic marine and lake sediments

Geochemical, mineralogical and biological indicators preserved in sediments are widely used to reconstruct past climate change, but proxies differ in the degree to which their utility as climate indicators has been validated via laboratory experiments, modern spatial calibrations, or down‐core comparisons with instrumental climate data. Multi‐proxy studies provide another means of evaluating interpretations of proxies. This paper presents a multi‐proxy assessment comparing 19 sub‐centennially resolved late Holocene proxy records, covering the period 300–1900 AD, from seven Icelandic marine and lacustrine core sites. We employ simple statistical comparisons between proxy reconstructions to evaluate their correlations over time and, ultimately, their utility as proxies for regional climate. Proxies examined include oxygen isotopic composition of benthic and planktonic foraminifera, abundance of the sea‐ice biomarker IP₂₅, allochthonous quartz in marine sediments (a proxy for drift ice around Iceland), marine carbonate abundance, total organic carbon concentration, chironomid assemblages, lacustrine biogenic silica and carbon/nitrogen ratios in lake sediments. Most of the examined proxy records, including temperature and sea‐ice proxies, correlate strongly with each other over multi‐centennial timescales, and thus do appear to record changes in regional climate. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.