Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.     

High heat flow anomalies on an old oceanic plate observed seaward of the Japan Trench

Thirty-three new measurements on the seaward slope and outer rise of the Japan Trench along a parallel of 38°45′N revealed the existence of high heat flow anomalies on the subducting Pacific plate, where the seafloor age is about 135 m.y.. The most prominent anomaly with the highest value of 114 mW/m² is associated with a small mound on the outer rise, which was reported to be a kind of mud volcano. On the seaward slope of the trench, heat flow is variable: high (70–90 mW/m²) at some locations and normal for the seafloor age (about 50 mW/m²) at others. The spatial variation of heat flow may be related to development of normal faults and horst/graben structures due to bending of the Pacific plate before subduction, with fluid flow along the fault zones enhancing the vertical heat transfer. Possible heat sources of the high heat flow anomalies are intra-plate volcanism in the last several million years like that discovered recently on the Pacific plate east of the Japan Trench.     

Inversely-Mapped Analytical Solutions for Flow Patterns around and within Inclined Elliptic Inclusions in Fluid-Saturated Rocks

In this paper, an inverse mapping is used to transform the previously-derived analytical solutions from a local elliptical coordinate system into a conventional Cartesian coordinate system. This enables a complete set of exact analytical solutions to be derived rigorously for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function, and excess pore-fluid pressure around and within buried inclined elliptic inclusions in pore-fluid-saturated porous rocks. To maximize the application range of the derived analytical solutions, the focal distance of an ellipse is used to represent the size of the ellipse, while the length ratio of the long axis to the short one is used to represent the geometrical shape of the ellipse. Since the present analytical solutions are expressed in a conventional Cartesian coordinate system, it is convenient to investigate, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pressure around and within many different families of buried inclined elliptic inclusions. The major advantage in using the present analytical solution is that they can be conveniently computed in a global Cartesian coordinate system, which is widely used in many scientific and engineering computations. As an application example, the present analytical solutions have been used to investigate how the dip angle of an inclined elliptic inclusion affects the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pore-fluid pressure when the permeability ratio of the elliptic inclusion is of finite but nonzero values.     

Formation of refractory inclusions by evaporation of condensate precursors

Berman’s (1983) activity-composition model for CaO-MgO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂ liquids is used to calculate the change in bulk chemical and isotopic composition during simultaneous cooling, evaporation, and crystallization of droplets having the compositions of reasonable condensate precursors of Types A and B refractory inclusions in CV3 chondrites. The degree of evaporation of MgO and SiO₂, calculated to be faithfully recorded in chemical and isotopic zoning of individual melilite crystals, is directly proportional to evaporation rate, which is a sensitive function of P_H2, and inversely proportional to the droplet radius and cooling rate. When the precursors are partially melted in pure hydrogen at peak temperatures in the vicinity of the initial crystallization temperature of melilite, their bulk chemical compositions evolve into the composition fields of refractory inclusions, mass-fractionated isotopic compositions of Mg, Si, and O are produced that are in the range of the isotopic compositions of natural inclusions, and melilite zoning profiles result that are similar to those observed in real inclusions. For droplets of radius 0.25 cm evaporating at P_H2 = 10⁻⁶ bar, precursors containing 8 to 13 wt.% MgO and 20 to 23% SiO₂ evolve into objects similar to compact Type A inclusions at cooling rates of 2 to 12 K/h, depending on the precise starting composition. Precursors containing 13 to 14 wt.% MgO and 23 to 26% SiO₂ evolve into objects with the characteristics of Type B1 inclusions at cooling rates of 1.5 to 3 K/h. The relatively SiO₂-poor members of the Type B2 group can be produced from precursors containing 14 to 16 wt.% MgO and 27 to 33% SiO₂ at cooling rates of <1 K/h. Type B2’s containing 27 to 35 wt.% SiO₂ and <12% MgO require precursors with higher SiO₂/MgO ratios at MgO > 15% than are found on any condensation curve. The characteristics of fluffy Type A inclusions, including their reversely zoned melilite, can only be understood in the context of this model if they contain relict melilite.     

A decade of change in the Skidaway River estuary I. Hydrography and nutrients

The Skidaway River estuary is a tidally-dominated subtropical estuary in the southeastern USA surrounded by extensiveSpartina salt marshes. Weekly smapling at high and low tide began in 1986 for hydrography, nutrients, chlorophylla, particulate matter, and microbial and plankton biomass and composition; hydrographic and nutrient data during 1986–1996 are reported here. Salinity varied inversely with river discharge and exhibited variability at all time scales but with no long-term trend. Water temperature typically ranged over 25°C and was without apparent long-term frend. Seasonal cycles in concentrations of NO₃, NH₄, PO₄, Si(OH)₄, and DON were observed, with annual maxima generally occurring in late summer. Superimposed on seasonal cycles, all five nutrients exhibited steady increases in minimum, mean, and maximum concentrations; mean concentrations increased c. 50–150% during the decade. Nutrient concentrations were highly correlated with water temperature over the ten-year period, but weakly related to salinity and discharge. Nutrients were strongly correlated with one another, and the relative ratios among inorganic nutrients showed little long-term trend. Correlations among temperature and nutrient concentrations exhibited considerable inter-annual variability. Major spikes in organic and inorganic nutrient concentrations coincided with significant rainfall events; concentrations increased hyperbolically with rainfall. Although pristine compared to more heavily impacted waterways primarily outside the region, residential development and population density have been increasing rapidly during the past 15–20 years. Land use is apparently altering nutrient loading over the long-term (months-years), and superimposed on this are stochastic meteorological events that accelerate these changes over the short term (days-weeks).     

Kosa (yellow sand) components in precipitation collected at central Japan

In east Asia, acidic gases derived from fossil fuel combustion have increased in the past decades. On the other hand, the Asian dust, also called Kosa (yellow sand) is transported following windstorms from arid lands in the Asian continent. Many researchers have been interested in the reaction between acidic aerosols and Kosa aerosols as well as the long-range transport of these emissions. To investigate the characteristics of chemical components in precipitation on a long-term basis over Japan, precipitation was sequentially collected from April 1984 to March 1997 at Kanazawa located near the coast of the Sea of Japan. Precipitation samples were collected at 1 mm intervals for the first 5 mm rainfall and all volume of rainwater after 6 mm for all precipitation events with an automatic wet only precipitation collector. According to the analyses of precipitation including Kosa aerosols during Kosa periods, the reaction in the air between Kosa and acidic components during the long-range transport was discussed.