The cosmic distance scale

Summary The status of the cosmic distance scale problem in early 1989 is reviewed. Internally consistent distances to Local Group galaxies are given in Tables 5 and 6. Within the Local Group the distance scale is found to be 11±5% smaller than that previously adopted by Sandage and Tammann. Distances to nearby galaxies are used as stepping stones to the Virgo cluster. The interpretation of the Tully-Fisher observations of Virgo spirals is found to be ambiguous because it is not yet clear which spirals are cluster members and which are background objects. Distance estimates of the Virgo cluster obtained by different techniques are listed in Table 11. The distance modulus of the Virgo cluster is found to be 31.5±0.2, corresponding to a distance of 20±2 Mpc. The elliptical galaxies in the core of the Virgo cluster haveV ₀=1200±46 kms^–1, which corresponds toV _LG=1082±48 km s^–1. With an infall velocity of 250±50 km s^–1 this yields a cosmological redshiftV=1332±69 km s^–1, from which a Hubble parameter H₀=67±8 km s^–1 Mpc^–1 is obtained. Space Telescope observations of distant Cepheids, Tully-Fisher observations of spirals in the Hercules eluster, and interference filter observations of Virgo planetary nebulae in the light of [O_III], should soon result in a major improvement in the accuracy with which H₀ is known.     

Contrasting conditions preceding MIS3 and MIS2 Heinrich events

This paper presents an integrated multi-tracer study performed on piston cores recovered in the glacial ice-rafted detritus belt, stretching from Newfoundland to the Irish margin across the North Atlantic (40–55°N), in order to compare in detail the internal structure of each Heinrich event (HE). These tracers are IRD counts (quartz, dolomite, volcanic grains), their Nd isotopic composition and Ar–Ar datings of individual hornblende grains. A focus on the detailed structure of HE confirms that all intervals of massive sediment flux, specifically Heinrich layers HL1-to-5 (HLs), were dominated by North American, Laurentide ice-sheet surges from Hudson Strait, that are evident as far east as the Bay of Biscay (European margin). The sequences of events leading up to the HLs, however, present significant dissimilarities. One important difference is that HL2 and HL1 were preceded by “precursor events” (increases in the number of lithic grains per gram from non-Laurentide sediment sources). Sediment debris derived from near-simultaneous iceberg releases originating from the European ice-sheet are only detectable close to the European margin. In contrast there are no comparable precursor events before HL5 and HL4. This observation implies that precursor events are unlikely to be mechanistically linked to the triggering of HEs. The similarity of the HLs, against contrasting background conditions, is a significant observation that should add constraints to their origin.     

Lacustrine records of Holocene flood pulse dynamics in the Upper Paraguay River watershed (Pantanal wetlands,Brazil)

The Pantanal is the world's largest tropical wetland and a biodiversity hotspot, yet its response to Quaternary environmental change is unclear. To address this problem, sediment cores from shallow lakes connected to the Upper Paraguay River (PR) were analyzed and radiocarbon dated to track changes in sedimentary environments. Stratal relations, detrital particle size, multiple biogeochemical indicators, and sponge spicules suggest fluctuating lake-level lowstand conditions between ~ 11,000 and 5300 cal yr BP, punctuated by sporadic and in some cases erosive flood flows. A hiatus has been recorded from ~ 5300 to 2600 cal yr BP, spurred by confinement of the PR within its channel during an episode of profound regional drought. Sustained PR flooding caused a transgression after ~ 2600 cal yr BP, with lake-level highstand conditions appearing during the Little Ice Age. Holocene PR flood pulse dynamics are best explained by variability in effective precipitation, likely driven by insolation and tropical sea-surface temperature gradients. Our results provide novel support for hypotheses on: (1) stratigraphic discontinuity of floodplain sedimentary archives; (2) late Holocene methane flux from Southern Hemisphere wetlands; and (3) pre-colonial indigenous ceramics traditions in western Brazil.     

Hydrodynamical adaptive mesh refinement simulations of turbulent flows – I. Substructure in a wind

The problem of the resolution of turbulent flows in adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) simulations is investigated by means of three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamical simulations in an idealized setup, representing a moving subcluster during a merger event. AMR simulations performed with the usual refinement criteria based on local gradients of selected variables do not properly resolve the production of turbulence downstream of the cluster. Therefore, we apply novel AMR criteria which are optimised to follow the evolution of a turbulent flow. We demonstrate that these criteria provide a better resolution of the flow past the subcluster, allowing us to follow the onset of the shear instability, the evolution of the turbulent wake and the subsequent back-reaction on the subcluster core morphology. We discuss some implications for the modelling of cluster cold fronts.     

Predicting the resilience of transport infrastructure to a natural disaster using Cox’s proportional hazards regression model

Transport infrastructure is at significant risk of direct damage from extreme climate events such as flooding, where the cost implications of delayed recovery are generally significant. Previous research in this regard has focused on the technical and engineering aspects of infrastructure construction. The risk management of resilient transport infrastructure is poorly considered, and little has been done to quantify the capacity of transport infrastructure to recover from the impact of natural disasters under varying conditions. This paper applies Cox’s proportional hazards regression model to determine the rate of recovery and cumulative probability that recovery occurs for transport infrastructure across regional areas in New South Wales, Australia. Data for post-disaster reconstruction projects over the period 1992–2012 are used to analyze recovery rate against geographic region, natural disaster type and post-disaster transport infrastructure reconstruction cost. Results demonstrate that transport infrastructure recovered slowest when the failure is the result of a flood rather than bushfire or storm, and in regions with a riverine geography. To validate the accuracy of the model, a bootstrap resampling technique is used. The bootstrap result confirms that the model is robust and reasonable.

     

UBV photometry of clusters in M31

A critical review is given of all published photoelectricUBV photometry of star clusters in the Andromeda Nebula. Observations by Sharovet al. are shown to exhibit rather large random errors, but no systematic deviations from theUBV system.     

Clusters of galaxies compared withN-body simulations: Masses and mass segregation

With three virially stableN-body simulations of Wielen, we show that use of the expression for the total mass derived from averaged quantities (velocity dispersion and mean harmonic radius) yields an overestimate of the mass by as much as a factor of 2–3, and use of the heaviest mass sample gives an underestimate by a factor of 2–3. The estimate of the mass using mass weighted quantities (i.e., derived from the customary definition of kinetic and potential energies) yields a better value irrespective of mass sample as applied to late time intervals of the models (three two-body relaxation times). The uncertainty is at most 50%. This suggests that it is better to employ the mass weighted expression for the mass when determining cluster masses. The virial ratio, which is a ratio of the mass weighted/averaged expression for the potential energy, is found to vary between 1 and 2. We conclude that ratios for observed clusters 4–10 cannot be explained even by the imprecision of the expression for the mass using averaged quantities, and certainly implies the presence of unseen matter. Total masses via customary application of the virial theorem are calculated for 39 clusters, and total masses for 12 clusters are calculated by a variant of the usual application. The distribution of cluster masses is also presented and briefly discussed. Mass segregation in Wielen's models is studied in terms of the binding energy per unit mass of the heavy sample compared with the light sample. The general absence of mass segregation in relaxed clusters and the large virial discrepancies are attributed to a population of many low-mass objects that may constitute the bulk mass of clusters of galaxies.