Fast linearized forecasts for subsurface flow data assimilation with ensemble Kalman filter

Ensemble methods present a practical framework for parameter estimation, performance prediction, and uncertainty quantification in subsurface flow and transport modeling. In particular, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has received significant attention for its promising performance in calibrating heterogeneous subsurface flow models. Since an ensemble of model realizations is used to compute the statistical moments needed to perform the EnKF updates, large ensemble sizes are needed to provide accurate updates and uncertainty assessment. However, for realistic problems that involve large-scale models with computationally demanding flow simulation runs, the EnKF implementation is limited to small-sized ensembles. As a result, spurious numerical correlations can develop and lead to inaccurate EnKF updates, which tend to underestimate or even eliminate the ensemble spread. Ad hoc practical remedies, such as localization, local analysis, and covariance inflation schemes, have been developed and applied to reduce the effect of sampling errors due to small ensemble sizes. In this paper, a fast linear approximate forecast method is proposed as an alternative approach to enable the use of large ensemble sizes in operational settings to obtain more improved sample statistics and EnKF updates. The proposed method first clusters a large number of initial geologic model realizations into a small number of groups. A representative member from each group is used to run a full forward flow simulation. The flow predictions for the remaining realizations in each group are approximated by a linearization around the full simulation results of the representative model (centroid) of the respective cluster. The linearization can be performed using either adjoint-based or ensemble-based gradients. Results from several numerical experiments with two-phase and three-phase flow systems in this paper suggest that the proposed method can be applied to improve the EnKF performance in large-scale problems where the number of full simulation is constrained.     

A methodology to calibrate and to validate effective solid potentials of heterogeneous porous media from computed tomography scans and laboratory-measured nanoindentation data

Built on the framework of effective interaction potentials using lattice element method, a methodology to calibrate and to validate the elasticity of solid constituents in heterogeneous porous media from experimentally measured nanoindentation moduli and imported scans from advanced imaging techniques is presented. Applied to computed tomography (CT) scans of two organic-rich shales, spatial variations of effective interaction potentials prove instrumental in capturing the effective elastic behavior of highly heterogeneous materials via the first two cumulants of experimentally measured distributions of nanoindentation moduli. After calibration and validation steps while implicitly accounting for mesoscale texture effects via CT scans, Biot poroelastic coefficients are simulated. Analysis of stress percolation suggests contrasting pathways for load transmission, a reflection of microtextural differences in the studied cases. This methodology to calibrate elastic energy content of real materials from advanced imaging techniques and experimental measurements paves the way to study other phenomena such as wave propagation and fracture while providing a platform to fine-tune effective behavior of materials given advancements in additive manufacturing and machine learning algorithms.     

Deep Time Reconstructions of Internal Earth Structure with the Adjoint Method

正The adjoint method is a powerful tool to obtain gradient information in a computational model relative to unknown model parameters,allowing one to solve inverse problems where analytical solutions are not available or the cost to determine prohibitive.In geodynamics its most prominent application relates to the restoration problem of mantle convection(i.e.,to reconstruct past mantle flow states with dynamic earth models back in time by finding optimal flow histories relative to     

Experimental creep tests and prediction of long-term creep behavior of grouting material

Rock reinforcement systems, such as resin-grouted rock bolts, display complex creep behavior because both grouting materials and bolts show time-dependent behavior. In this paper, only the time-dependent behavior of grouting material was investigated, in which creep tests of grouting material was conducted in triaxial compression apparatus at room temperature. The test specimens were provided from the Araldite epoxy resin used in rock reinforcement. We attempt to predict long-term creep parameter using triaxial creep tests and to define time-dependent characteristics of the bounding material. In short-term creep tests, three different axial and confining stress levels were applied in steps to each specimen. The transient creep for all the stress levels were described by power function which fit properly to time–strain curves. The maximum difference between the proposed model and experimental long-term creep strain was less than 7.1 %. It was observed that the creep rate of a grouting material specimen directly depends on the deviator of stress (i.e., σ₁–σ₃).     

Steady flow rate to a partially penetrating well with seepage face in an unconfined aquifer

The flow rate to fully screened, partially penetrating wells in an unconfined aquifer is numerically simulated using MODFLOW 2000, taking into account the flow from the seepage face and decrease in saturated thickness of the aquifer towards the well. A simple three-step method is developed to find the top of the seepage face and hence the seepage-face length. The method is verified by comparing it with the results of previous predictive methods. The results show that the component of flow through the seepage face can supply a major portion of the total pumping rate. Variations in flow rate as a function of the penetration degree, elevation of the water level in the well and the distance to the far constant head boundary are investigated and expressed in terms of dimensionless curves and equations. These curves and equations can be used to design the degree of penetration for which the allowable steady pumping rate is attained for a given elevation of water level in the well. The designed degree of penetration or flow rate will assure the sustainability of the aquifer storage, and can be used as a management criterion for issuing drilling well permits by groundwater protection authorities.     

Genesis and clay mineralogy of soils on different geomorphic surfaces in Mahan-Joupar area, central Iran

Soil genesis and clay mineralogy studies play an important role in sustainable soil and agriculture management. Soil properties are highly affected by geomorphic position. To study the physicochemical soil properties and clay mineralogy related to geomorphic surfaces, 12 representative pedons on different landforms in the Mahan-Joupar area, central Iran, were selected. Soil moisture and temperature regimes of the area were aridic and mesic, respectively. Rock and mantled pediments, alluvial fan, inselberg, plain, and transitional surfaces were among the different landforms studied. Alluvial fan was also divided into stable and unstable surfaces according to detailed field studies. Argillic horizon found in stable alluvial fan surfaces was attributed to the presence of a more humid paleoclimate in the history of the area. Coating of calcite on clay films observed by SEM showed that clay was illuviated in more humid periods of the past and then followed by calcium carbonate illuviation during arid climates. Smectite, kaolinite, chlorite, illite, and palygorskite clay minerals were identified by X-ray and SEM observations. Finally, a close relationship between the geomorphology and soil genesis and clay mineralogy was found in the area.     

Microbial Dynamics During and After In Situ Chemical Oxidation of Chlorinated Solvents

In situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) followed by a bioremediation step is increasingly being considered as an effective biphasic technology. Information on the impact of chemical oxidants on organohalide respiring bacteria (OHRB), however, is largely lacking. Therefore, we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) to monitor the abundance of OHRB (Dehalococcoides mccartyi, Dehalobacter, Geobacter, and Desulfitobacterium) and reductive dehalogenase genes (rdh; tceA, vcrA, and bvcA) at a field location contaminated with chlorinated solvents prior to and following treatment with sodium persulfate. Natural attenuation of the contaminants tetrachloroethene (PCE) and trichloroethene (TCE) observed prior to ISCO was confirmed by the distribution of OHRB and rdh genes. In wells impacted by persulfate treatment, a 1 to 3 order of magnitude reduction in the abundances of OHRB and complete absence of rdh genes was observed 21 days after ISCO. Groundwater acidification (pH<3) and increase in the oxidation reduction potential (>500 mV) due to persulfate treatment were significant and contributed to disruption of the microbial community. In wells only mildly impacted by persulfate, a slight stimulation of the microbial community was observed, with more than 1 order of magnitude increase in the abundance of Geobacter and Desulfitobacterium 36 days after ISCO. After six months, regeneration of the OHRB community occurred, however, neither D. mccartyi nor any rdh genes were observed, indicating extended disruption of biological natural attenuation (NA) capacity following persulfate treatment. For full restoration of biological NA activity, additional time may prove sufficient; otherwise addition electron donor amendment or bioaugmentation may be required.     

Deformation Mechanisms of Darreh Sary Metapelites,Sanandaj‒Sirjan Zone,Iran

The Darreh Sary metapelitic rocks are located in the northeast of Zagros orogenic belt and Sanandaj-Sirjan structural zone. The lithological composition of these rocks includes slate, phyllite, muscovitebiotite schist, garnet schist, staurolite-garnet schist and staurolite schist. The shale is the protolith of these metamorphic rocks, which was originated from the continental island arc tectonic setting and has been subjected to processes of Zagros orogeny. The deformation mechanisms in these rocks include bulging recrystallization (BLG), subgrain rotation recrystallization (SGR) and grain boundary migration recrystallization (GBM), which are considered as the key to estimate the deformation temperature of the rocks. The estimated ranges of deformation temperature and depth in these rocks show the temperatures of 275–375, 375–500, and >500°C and the depths of 10 to 17 km. The observed structures in these rocks such as faults, fractures and folds, often with the NW-SE direction coordinate with the structural trends of Zagros orogenic belt structures. The S-C mylonite fabrics is observed in these rocks with other microstructures such as mica fish, σ fabric and garnet deformation indicate the dextral shear deformation movements of study area. Based on the obtained results of this research, the stages of tectonic evolution of Darreh Sary area were developed.     

Combination of Precise Leveling and InSAR Data to Constrain Source Parameters of the Mw = 6.5, 26 December 2003 Bam Earthquake

We used new precise leveling data acquired 40 days after the Bam earthquake in combination with radar interferometry observations from both ascending and descending orbits to investigate static deformation associated with the 2003 Bam earthquake. We invert this geodetic data set to gain insight into the fault geometry and slip distribution of the rupture. The best-fitting dislocation model is a steeply east-dipping right-lateral strike-slip fault that has a size of 11 by 8 km and strikes N2°W. We find that such smooth geometry fits available geodetic data better than previously proposed models for this earthquake. Our distributed slip model indicates a maximum strike slip of 3 m occurring about 3 to 5 km deep. The slip magnitude and depth of faulting taper to the north, where the fault approaches the Bam city. Inclusion of crustal layering increases the amount of maximum slip inferred at depth by about 4%.     

The middle Eocene high-K magmatism in Eastern Iran Magmatic Belt: constraints from U-Pb zircon geochronology and Sr-Nd isotopic ratios

ABSTRACT

Intrusive rocks are well-exposed in the south Birjand around the Koudakan is herein compared to previously studied outcrops along the middle Eocene to late Oligocene Eastern Iran Magmatic Belt. This pluton is composed mainly of monzonite, quartz-monzonite, and granite with high-K calc-alkaline to shoshonitic affinities. The U-Pb zircon geochronology from monzonite and quartz-monzonite reveals the crystallization ages of 40.96 ± 0.48 to 38.78 ± 0.78 Ma (Bartonian). The monzonite, quartz-monzonite, and granite rocks show similar REEs and trace element patterns, as well as limited variations in εNd_(i) and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i) ratio, suggesting that they are a comagmatic intrusive suite. The chondrite and primitive mantle normalized rare earth and trace element patterns show enrichment in the light rare earth elements, K, Rb, Cs, Pb, Th, and U and depletion in heavy rare earth elements, Nb, Zr, and Ti. The εNd_(i) and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i) values range from +1.32 to +1.68 and 0.7044 to 0.7047, respectively, identical to island-arc basalt composition. The whole-rock Nd model age (T_DM) for the intrusive rocks range between 0.69 and 0.73 Ga. These geochemical and isotopic signatures indicate a subduction-related sub-continental lithospheric mantle source for these rocks. Our new geochemical, isotopic, and geochronological studies integrated with previously published data indicate that the middle Eocene to late Oligocene magmatism in eastern Iran was formed in a post-collisional tectonic environment. We suggest the northeastward subduction of the Neo-Tethys ocean beneath the Lut block and the eastward subduction of the Sistan ocean beneath the Afghan block caused mantle wedge to be metasomatized by slab components. At a later stage, a collision between the Lut and Afghan blocks was accompanied by the lithospheric delamination, and the subsequent asthenospheric upwelling led to the melting of the metasomatized sub-continental lithospheric mantle and the generation of middle Eocene to late Oligocene magmatism in the Eastern Iran Magmatic Belt.