Evaluation of grid-point atmospheric model of IAP LASG version 2 (GAMIL2)

The Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG version 2 (GAMIL2) has been developed through upgrading the deep convection parameterization, cumulus cloud fraction and two-moment cloud microphysical scheme, as well as changing some of the large uncertain parameters. In this paper, its performance is evaluated, and the results suggest that there are some significant improvements in GAMIL2 compared to the previous version GAMIL1, for example, the components of the energy budget at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface; the geographic distribution of shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF); the ratio of stratiform versus total rainfall; the response of atmospheric circulation to the tropical ocean; and the eastward propagation and spatiotemporal structures of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Furthermore, the indirect aerosols effect (IAE) is -0.94 W m-2, within the range of 0 to -2 W m-2 given by the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007). The influence of uncertain parameters on the MJO and radiation fluxes is also discussed.     

鲁西地区太古宙绿岩带硫铁矿床地质特征及成矿机制

鲁西地区新太古代雁翎关组由科马提岩、角闪质岩石、变粒岩和含铁石英岩等组成 ,其原岩为一套超镁铁质镁铁质火山熔岩及火山碎屑沉积的表壳岩建造 ,经历了三期区域变质作用 ,变质程度达低角闪岩相 ,是华北地台上一个典型的绿岩带。鲁西花岗岩绿岩带中分布有大小黄铁矿脉数十条之多 ,呈层状、透镜状或脉状沿片麻理方向展布 ,硫品位 3 .79%～ 3 1.6% ,伴生有用组分Fe、Ni、Ag等。通过对绿岩、矿体和矿石特征、S、Fe分布及变质成矿作用等方面的研究 ,证实绿岩中含有丰富的S、Fe、Ni等造矿元素 ,认为绿岩既是赋矿岩石亦是矿源层 ,矿床属变质热液叠加的变质火山沉积型硫铁矿床。     

Evidence for Tibetan Plateau Uplift in Qaidam Basin before Eocene-Oligocene Boundary and Its Climatic Implications

Geometry analysis of the Hongsanhan (红三旱) Section in the northwestern Qaidam basin illustrates the typical growth strata in the Xiaganchaigou (下干柴沟) Formation. The age and sedimentation rates of the Xiaganchaigou and the Shangganchaigou (上干柴沟) formations were determined by the high-resolution magnetostratigraphy. This result shows that the growth strata began to form at ca. 38.0 Ma and increased sedimentation rates occurred at ca. 37.0 Ma. The uplift of the Tibetan plateau before the Eocene-Oligocene boundary is confirmed, which enables us to better understand the relationship between climatic changes and the tectonic uplift. This uplift event could have resuited in the regional drying by blocking the moisture and contributed to the Eocene-Oligocene boundary global cooling event due to the declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations by increased weathering of the mountains.     

Identification of temporal and spatial variations of water quality in Sanya Bay,China by three-way principal component analysis

A large data set obtained by a 1-year monthly determination of water quality from Sanya Bay, South China Sea, was treated by three-way principal component analysis aimed at exploring the spatial and temporal patterns of water quality in Sanya Bay. Tucker3 model of optimum complexity (2, 2, 1) explaining 33.18% of the data variance, allowed interpretation of the data information in three modes. The model explained spatial and temporal variation trends in terms of water quality variables during the study period. Water quality in sampling station (S2) Sanya River was mainly influenced by Sanya River, and water quality in other stations (S1, S3–S10) were mainly influenced by the waters in South China Sea. The results delineated the mouth of Sanya River as critical from pollution point of view. The dry season from October to the next April and rainy season from May to September have different influences on water quality in Sanya Bay. The information extracted by the three-way models would be very useful to regional agencies in developing a strategy to carry out scientific plans for resource use based on marine system functions.     

内蒙古高等级公路道路结冰预报方法初探

利用1990—2007年内蒙古高等级公路包头—兴和段4个气象站监测的结冰和积雪资料,分析得出可能发生道路结冰的天气气候背景。并利用1990—2000年包头—兴和段可能发生道路结冰现象的降水天气过程的气象资料,总结出6种天气环流概念模型,为预报内蒙古高等级公路道路结冰提供参考。     

一次东北冷涡暴雨过程成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°逐6h的再分析资料和FY-2E红外云图、TBB等资料,对2014年7月7—8日由东北冷涡引发内蒙古东北部的暴雨过程形成原因进行了天气学诊断分析,结果表明:1低空急流是主要水汽来源,不同地区出现暴雨的机制不同,兴安盟东部、呼伦贝尔市东南部由于槽前、切变南缘地面暖锋附近,中低空急流汇合处,强辐合抬升触发不稳定能量释放导致强天气的发生,而呼伦贝尔市西南部暴雨跟中上层冷涡的生成发展与对应的地面低压逐步耦合的动力作用相关;2湿位涡的分布对暴雨的发生、落区有较强的指示性作用,700hPa正负值区过度带的配置是暴雨发生发展的有利潜势,暴雨发生在700hPa等值线密集带和850hPa MPV2大于等于0的叠加区域内,700hPa正负过渡带附近,偏向于正值一侧;3最大降水量的雨强落后于云团TBB最低值1~2h,并不是强TBB与最强降水同步出现。     

山东黑旺铁矿裂隙岩溶水供排结合的多种数学模拟研究

黑旺铁矿位于山东省淄博市境内,是年开采能力达几十万吨的露天矿。矿层位于中奥陶统的石灰岩中,为一多年平均日排水量达６．１２万ｍ３／ｄ的大水矿山。矿山所排出的水未受污染,但一直未得到很好的利用。矿山下游约１０ｋｍ处为一特大型的大武水源地,该水源地已超采,并且部分遭受污染。因此,该矿水的供排结合研究,对于缓解淄博市的供水矛盾有重要意义。本文在分析地质、水文地质条件的基础上,用逐步回归分析和多维时间序列分析,找出矿坑充水的主要因素,并预测矿坑涌水量;用有限元法计算允许开采量,预报矿山闭坑前后的水位;评价供水后的环境影响并提出水源保护的建议      

地层学的发展推动油气地质理论研究的进步

自上个世纪50年代以来,地层学经历了彻底的变革,逐渐由“相模式”、“沉积体系”、“地震地层学”发展到目前的“层序地层学”,形成高分辨率层序地层学和事件地层学的理论体系和研究方法。文章围绕层序地层学、高分辨率层序地层学基本方法及理论体系,与含油气系统相关关系进行了讨论。     

Experiments of DSAEF_LTP Model with Two Improved Parameters for Accumulated Precipitation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Southeast China

The Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) utilises an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for the forecast track, while the precipitation forecast is obtained by finding analog cyclones, and making a precipitation forecast from an ensemble of the analogs. This study addresses TCs that occurred from 2004 to 2019 in Southeast China with 47 TCs as training samples and 18 TCs for independent forecast experiments. Experiments use four model versions. The control experiment DSAEF_LTP_1 includes three factors including TC track, landfall season, and TC intensity to determine analogs. Versions DSAEF_LTP_2, DSAEF_LTP_3, and DSAEF_LTP_4 respectively integrate improved similarity region, improved ensemble method, and improvements in both parameters. Results show that the DSAEF_LTP model with new values of similarity region and ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_4) performs best in the simulation experiment, while the DSAEF_LTP model with new values only of ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_3) performs best in the forecast experiment. The reason for the difference between simulation (training sample) and forecast (independent sample) may be that the proportion of TC with typical tracks (southeast to northwest movement or landfall over Southeast China) has changed significantly between samples. Forecast performance is compared with that of three global dynamical models (ECMWF, GRAPES, and GFS) and a regional dynamical model (SMS-WARMS). The DSAEF_LTP model performs better than the dynamical models and tends to produce more false alarms in accumulated forecast precipitation above 250 mm and 100 mm. Compared with TCs without heavy precipitation or typical tracks, TCs with these characteristics are better forecasted by the DSAEF_LTP model.     

Reducing standard errors by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into a measurement scheme for soil carbon credits

Several studies have suggested that geostatistical techniques could be employed to reduce overall transactions costs associated with contracting for soil C credits by increasing the efficacy of sampling protocols used to measure C-credits. In this paper, we show how information about the range of spatial autocorrelation can be used in a measurement scheme to reduce the size of the confidence intervals that bound estimates of the mean number of C-credits generated per hectare. A tighter confidence interval around the mean number of C-credits sequestered could increase producer payments for each hectare enrolled in a contract to supply C-credits. An empirical application to dry land cropping systems in three regions of Montana shows that information about the spatial autocorrelation exhibited by soil C could be extremely valuable for reducing transactions costs associated with contracts for C-credits but the benefits are not uniform across all regions or cropping systems. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation greatly reduced the standard errors and narrowed the confidence intervals associated with sample estimates of the mean number of C-credits produced per hectare. For the payment mechanism considered in this paper, tighter confidence intervals around the mean number of C-credits created per hectare enrolled could increase producer payments by more than 100 percent under a C-contract.