潜在地震灾害预测和评价神经网络系统及其若干问题

结合人工神经网络自身的特性和地震灾害预测研究的特点,本文应用神经网络模型,建立了潜在地震灾害预测和评价系统。针对网络模型参数设置、数据归一化、中间层神经元最优数目以及泛化分类评价指标等若干实际问题给出了实际可行的解决方案。通过大样本数据对网络的训练,形成了有识别和记忆功能的非线性预测和评价系统。对网络的测试和检验,论证了该系统在预测潜在地震灾害上的可行性和有效性。同时,从测试精度出发,探讨了这种预测网络存在的不足,并给出了相应的改进建议,为开展进一步的研究工作提供了参考。     

6级以上地震平静与7级以上地震发生的关系分析

利用χ2检验方法对我国大陆6级以上地震平静与7级以上地震发生之间的关系进行了统计检验,结果表明:6级以上地震平静与我国大陆地区发生7级以上地震的关系不显著。6级以上地震平静460天与其后1年2月内我国大陆及边境地区发生7级以上地震的关系显著。     

3D Step-by-step inversion strategy for audio magnetotellurics data based on unstructured mesh

A three-dimensional (3D) step-by-step inversion strategy for audio magnetotellurics(AMT) is investigated in this study.The objective function is minimized by it...     

1951—2018年衢州市椪柑采摘期连阴雨天气变化特征

基于1951—2018年衢州市椪柑采摘期降水量、雨日、日照时数、相对湿度等逐日气象资料,应用统计分析和小波分析方法,分析椪柑采摘期连阴雨天气变化特征及其大气环流背景.结果表明:1951—2018年衢州椪柑采摘期连阴雨日数、次数和强度呈略微增加趋势、滑动3d无雨次数呈减少趋势;滑动3d无雨次数存在明显的5a、7a和15a...     

NEX-GDDP和CMIP5对青藏高原地区近地面气象场历史和未来模拟的评估与偏差校正

青藏高原是全球变化研究的热点区域,气候模式模拟是研究该区域气候变化的重要数据来源.本文使用基于中国地面台站的插值格点数据集(CN05.1),对国际气候耦合模式第5次比较计划(CMIP5)及其高分辨率统计降尺度数据集(NEX-GDDP)中15个模式1966-2005年间的逐日最高/最低气温、降水和平均风速在青藏高原区域的...     

Understanding the dynamical-microphysical-electrical processes associated with severe thunderstorms over the Beijing metropolitan region

The Dynamical-microphysical-electrical Processes in Severe Thunderstorms and Lightning Hazards(STORM973)project conducted coordinated comprehensive field observations of thunderstorms in the Beijing metropolitan region(BMR)during the warm season from 2014 to 2018.The aim of the project was to understand how dynamical,microphysical and electrical processes interact in severe thunderstorms in the BMR,and how to assimilate lightning data in numerical weather prediction models to improve severe thunderstorm forecasts.The platforms used in the field campaign included the Beijing Lightning Network(BLNET,consisting of 16 stations),2 X-band dual linear polarimetric Doppler radars,and 4 laser raindrop spectrometers.The collaboration also made use of the China Meteorological Administration’s mesoscale meteorological observation network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Although diverse thunderstorm types were documented,it was found that squall lines and multicell storms were the two major categories of severe thunderstorms with frequent lightning activity and extreme rainfall or unexpected local short-duration heavy rainfall resulting in inundations in the central urban area,influenced by the terrain and environmental conditions.The flash density maximums were found in eastern Changping District,central and eastern Shunyi District,and the central urban area of Beijing,suggesting that the urban heat island effect has a crucial role in the intensification of thunderstorms over Beijing.In addition,the flash rate associated with super thunderstorms can reach hundreds of flashes per minute in the central city regions.The super(5%of the total),strong(35%),and weak(60%)thunderstorms contributed about 37%,56%,and 7%to the total flashes in the BMR,respectively.Owing to the close connection between lightning activity and the thermodynamic and microphysical characteristics of the thunderstorms,the lightning flash rate can be used as an indicator of severe weather events,such as hail and short-duration heavy rainfall.Lightning data can also be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to help improve the forecasting of severe convection and precipitation at the cloud-resolved scale,through adjusting or correcting the thermodynamic and microphysical parameters of the model.     

Facies character and geochemical signature in the late Quaternary meteoric diagenetic carbonate succession at the Xisha Islands,South China Sea

The late Quaternary shallow-water carbonates have been altered by a variety of diagenetic processes, and further influenced by high-amplitude global and regional sea level changes. This study utilizes a new borehole drilled on the Yongxing Island, Xisha Islands to investigate meteoric diagenetic alteration in the late Quaternary shallowwater carbonates. Petrographic, mineralogical, stable isotopic and elemental data provide new insights into the meteoric diagenetic processes of the reef limestone. The results show the variation in the distribution of aragonite,high-Mg calcite(HMC) and low-Mg calcite(LMC) divides the shallow-water carbonates in Core SSZK1 into three intervals, which are Unit I(31.20–55.92 m, LMC), Unit II(18.39–31.20 m, aragonite and LMC) and Unit III(upper 18.39 m of core, aragonite, LMC and HMC). Various degrees of meteoric diagenesis exist in the identified three units. The lowermost Unit I has suffered almost complete freshwater diagenesis, whereas the overlying Units II and III have undergone incompletely meteoric diagenesis. The amount of time that limestone has been in the freshwater diagenetic environment has the largest impact on the degree of meteoric diagenesis. Approximately four intact facies/water depth cycles are recognized. The cumulative depletion of elements such as strontium(Sr),sodium(Na) and sulphur(S) caused by duplicated meteoric diagenesis in the older reef sequences are distinguished from the younger reef sequences. This study provides a new record of meteoric diagenesis, which is well reflected by whole-rock mineralogy and geochemistry.     

藏南错那洞淡色花岗岩中电气石矿物学和地球化学特征

错那洞淡色花岗岩与错那洞穹隆及周边的铅锌和钨锡铍矿床具有时空上的密切关系.含电气石淡色花岗岩是错那洞高分异淡色花岗岩的代表性岩石.岩相学研究表明,错那洞电气石可分为GT型和PT型两类.本次研究利用电子探针以及LA-ICP-MS分析两种类型电气石的化学组成.结果表明,GT型电气石中Fe/(Fe+Mg)原子比值为0.83～...     

商丘近40 a蒸发量变化特征及原因分析

利用商丘1961-2000年小型蒸发皿蒸发量资料,分析了商丘蒸发量的变化趋势及引起蒸发量变化的因子,结果表明,商丘年、季和月蒸发量均存在明显的下降趋势,影响蒸发量变化的因子主要有风速、日照、相对湿度、水汽压等.     

Vision-based tracking with projective mapping for parameter identification of remotely operated vehicles

Parameter identification of a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) is often based on the dynamic responses collected by its onboard sensors. However, for commercial ROVs, the required data for identification may not be available due to the absence of suitable sensors or limitations in accessing onboard sensor data. Therefore, this study proposes a vision-based tracking system to measure the dynamic response of an ROV. The tracking system is independent of the ROV, and is able to localize an ROV to a high degree of precision by means of projective mapping. The validity of the proposed tracking system is demonstrated through identification of a commercial ROV. A simplified nonlinear ROV dynamic model with six degrees of freedom (DOF) is used for identification. Uncoupled motions, including surge, sway, and yaw, are obtained from the ROV dynamic model, and the corresponding experiments are carried out for each DOF. Hydrodynamic parameters are then estimated with numerical optimizations by comparing the measured ROV responses with the output of the mathematical model. The experimental results show that the vision-based tracking system can accurately measure the transient and steady-state responses of an ROV. Additionally, the simulations of the ROV dynamic model, with the optimal parameter estimates, give results in agreement with the measured data.