Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya

Measuring some 2400 km in length, the Himalaya accommodate millions of people in northern India and Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and parts of other Asian nations. Every year, especially during monsoon rains, landslides and related natural events in these mountains cause tremendous damage to lives, property, infrastructure, and environment. In the context of the Himalaya, however, the rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation are not well understood. This paper describes regional aspects of rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Himalaya. Some 677 landslides occurring from 1951 to 2006 were studied to analyze rainfall thresholds. Out of the 677 landslides, however, only 193 associated with rainfall data were analyzed to yield a threshold relationship between rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and landslide initiation. The threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering rainfall events is I = 73.90D^− 0.79 (I = rainfall intensity in mm h^− 1 and D = duration in hours), revealing that when the daily precipitation exceeds 144 mm, the risk of landslides on Himalayan mountain slopes is high. Normalized rainfall intensity–duration relationships and landslide initiation thresholds were established from the data after normalizing rainfall-intensity data with respect to mean annual precipitation (MAP) as an index in which N_I = 1.10D^− 0.59 (N_I = normalized intensity in h^− 1). Finally, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was also investigated by considering daily rainfall during failure and the cumulative rainfall to discover at what point antecedent rainfall plays an important role in Himalayan landslide processes. Rainfall thresholds presented in this paper are generalized so they can be used in landslide warning systems in the Nepal Himalaya.     

Predictive modelling of rainfall-induced landslide hazard in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal based on weights-of-evidence

Landslide hazard mapping is a fundamental tool for disaster management activities in mountainous terrains. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the predictive power of weights-of-evidence modelling in landslide hazard assessment in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal. The modelling was performed within a geographical information system (GIS), to derive a landslide hazard map of the south-western marginal hills of the Kathmandu Valley. Thematic maps representing various factors (e.g., slope, aspect, relief, flow accumulation, distance to drainage, soil depth, engineering soil type, landuse, geology, distance to road and extreme one-day rainfall) that are related to landslide activity were generated, using field data and GIS techniques, at a scale of 1:10,000. Landslide events of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were used to assess the Bayesian probability of landslides in each cell unit with respect to the causative factors. To assess the accuracy of the resulting landslide hazard map, it was correlated with a map of landslides triggered by the 2002 extreme rainfall events. The accuracy of the map was evaluated by various techniques, including the area under the curve, success rate and prediction rate. The resulting landslide hazard value calculated from the old landslide data showed a prediction accuracy of > 80%. The analysis suggests that geomorphological and human-related factors play significant roles in determining the probability value, while geological factors play only minor roles. Finally, after the rectification of the landslide hazard values of the new landslides using those of the old landslides, a landslide hazard map with > 88% prediction accuracy was prepared. The methodology appears to have extensive applicability to the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal, with the limitation that the model's performance is contingent on the availability of data from past landslides.     

Lignin and fatty acid records in Lake Baikal sediments over the last 130 kyr: A comparison with pollen records

A 10 m sediment core from Academician Ridge in Lake Baikal was analyzed for its molecular composition using on-line TMAH (tetramethylammomium hydroxide) thermochemolysis. Major products are lignin phenols, n-C₁₄ to C₃₀ fatty acids (alkanoic acids), cutin acids, hydroxy acids and aliphatic dicarboxylic acids. Lignin phenols are abundant in warmer periods (the interglacial: marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e and MIS 1), but extremely low in the other (colder) periods. This result coincides well with pollen records reported for a core near the present site, where an expansion of coniferous forests in sub-stage 5e and MIS 1 was implied. Normal C₂₄–C₃₀ alkanoic acids, important components of plant wax esters, are abundant in 5e and MIS 1 and are present in significant amounts in the other (colder) periods, unlike the lignin phenols. A high abundance of n-C₂₄ to C₃₀ alkanoic acids relative to lignin phenols in the Bølling–Allerød warm period suggests an enhanced development of herbs.It is implied from comparison of the sedimentary lignin phenol record with fossil pollen records and lignin phenol analysis of modern pollen that the ratio of cinnamyl phenols to vanillyl phenols may serve as an indicator of pollen contribution to sedimentary organic matter.     

Distribution and photo-physiological condition of phytoplankton in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific

To better understand the vertical distribution of phytoplankton in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific, we used fast repetition rate fluorometry to investigate the photo-physiological condition of the phytoplankton assemblage in this region between February and March 2007. Along 155°E, between the equator and 24°N, the peak of fluorescence (F _m), an indication of the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM), was deeper than the top of the nitracline and occurred at the 2.4 ± 1.3 % (mean ± SD) light depth (relative to 0 m). The photochemical efficiency (F _v/F _m) and effective absorption cross-section of photosystem II (σ_PSII) were low at the surface but increased rapidly at depths between the top of the nitracline (40–138 m) and the DCM (70–158 m), an indication that the photo-physiological condition of the phytoplankton improved below the top of the nitracline. The depth of the maximal F _v/F _m [Z(F _v/F _{m max})] was 18–32 m deeper than the DCM and corresponded to the 0.8 ± 0.2 % light depth. The values of F _v/F _m at the Z(F _v/F _{m max}) were 20 % higher than those at the DCM and averaged 0.48 ± 0.01. These results suggest that the phytoplankton assemblage beneath the DCM had a high potential photosynthetic performance capacity and was growing by using the very low ambient light in this region.