水电工程坝址区构造应力场三维数值反演

以水电工程实例为背景,在现场调查和地应力测量的基础上,采用三维数值技术对水电站坝址区小范围内构造应力场进行了反演分析,通过对三维模型施加不同量值、不同方向的边界载荷,对比分析应力拟合点处的计算主应力与实测主应力之间的差别,从而得到最合理的边界载荷的量值和方向,即为坝址区构造应力场的量值和方向。计算结果表明：水电站坝址区构造应力场σ₁方向为S50°－60°E,量值为6～7 MPa;σ₃方向为N50°－60°E,量值为3～4 MPa。反演计算得到的坝址区构造应力场方向与区域应力场方向吻合,主应力量值也在合理范围内。     

辽河流域土壤酸化与作物籽实镉生物效应的地球化学预警

土壤酸化及其引发的生态安全问题是公众广泛关注、全球研究的热点。辽河流域多目标区域地球化学调查结果显示：当土壤中的w(CaO+K2O)≥3.86%时,土壤对酸性沉降物具有缓冲能力;当w(CaO+K₂O)<3.86%时,则土壤对酸性沉降物的缓冲能力显著下降。利用土壤酸化缓冲能力的地球化学预测模型,对全流域土壤酸化的缓冲能力进行了预测,指出辽河流域东部,即营口-鞍山-辽阳-沈阳-抚顺-铁岭-开源的广大区域内既是土壤酸化的脆弱区,也是作物籽实Cd超标的预警区,辽河流域土壤酸化区域将进一步扩大。     

Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data

Detrending is a widely used technique for obtaining stationary time series data in residual analysis and risk assessment. The technique is frequently applied in crop yield risk assessment and insurance ratings. Although several trend models have been proposed in the literature, whether these models achieve consistent detrending results and successfully extract the true yield trends is rarely discussed. In the present article, crop insurance pricing is evaluated by different trend models using real and historical yield data, and hypothetical yield data generated by Monte Carlo simulations. Applied to real historical data, the linear, loglinear, autoregressive integrated moving average trend models produce different risk assessment results. The differences among the model outputs are statistically significant. The largest deviation in the county crop assessment reaches 6–8 %, substantially larger than the present countrywide gross premium rate of 5–7 %. In performance tests on simulated yield trends, popular detrending methods based on smoothing techniques proved overall superior to linear, loglinear, and integrated autoregression models. The best performances were yielded by the moving average and robust locally weighted regression models.     

人工掏挖坡面侵蚀微地貌演化及其水力学特性分析

人工掏挖是黄土高原地区夏闲地翻耕时广为应用的耕作方式,为探明其坡面侵蚀过程,利用三维激光扫描仪及ArcGIS软件,阐明其在人工模拟间歇降雨下坡面微地貌、侵蚀产沙及水力学参数演变规律。结果表明:①坡面侵蚀历经溅蚀-片蚀、断续细沟、连续细沟3个阶段;降雨截止时细沟平面密度、平均沟深、最大沟长和最大沟深分别增至初始的1.42倍、2.24倍、15.5倍和2.43倍。②地表糙度随降雨历时推移从1.706呈近似线性趋势减小至1.488;累积降雨量达80 mm之前,径流量、含沙量随地表糙度的减小增加缓慢,但之后随地表糙度减小增加剧烈。③降雨过程中流速呈现波动增加趋势,水流由层流快速过渡至紊流,但始终保持为缓流,水流阻力呈波动下降,且形态阻力一直居于主导地位。人工掏挖耕作坡面在雨强1.5 mm/min、降雨量80 mm以内可起到蓄水保土作用,但在连续强降雨下也更易引起细沟侵蚀。     

青海省宗马海湖地区始新—中新统干柴沟组沉积相探析

宗马海湖地区位于柴达木盆地的北缘,有着良好的油气、钾盐勘探前景。该文在分析柴达木盆地北缘宗马海湖地区区域地质背景的基础上,对始新-中新统干柴沟组的岩石学特征、地层特征、沉积构造特征及沉积相等进行了较为深入的研究。干柴沟组沉积相以滨湖亚相、浅湖亚相及扇三角洲相为主,滨-浅亚湖沉积发育最为广泛。扇三角洲相具牵引流、重力流沉积特征,中、粗粒碎屑岩为主;滨湖亚相具较高流态的水动力条件,以砂和粉砂为主,砂泥间互层频繁;浅湖亚相以泥质沉积为主,显示低能的浅水静态沉积作用。文中总结了研究区干柴沟组沉积期沉积相演化特征,建立了干柴沟沉积相平面展布图;干柴沟组沉积相的形成与季节性变化息息相关,湖水上涨、后退导致北部山区扇三角洲较发育,而南部区域始终位于滨、浅湖环境中。     

深埋电极的地电阻率观测研究

首先研究了四极观测系统装置系数与电极埋深的关系;然后给出了点电流源在3层地壳模型的地表和第二层时,电源所在层的电位的解析表达式;最后将天津宝坻地区的电性结构简化成一个3层模型,计算给出了当地表层和基岩中的电阻率出现变化时,在地表和基岩上层开展四极地电阻率观测结果与供电极距和深度的关系.     

用超长基线解算分析汶川地震动态形变特征

以远距离的IGS武汉GPS站为参考站,用超长基线双差瞬时精密定位技术,获取汶川Ms8.0地震震时震区连续GPS站1 Hz动态形变序列。同时以较近距离的雅安站为参考站解算动态形变序列,结果显示,两者的形变结果具有很好的一致性。距离断层较近的郫县、成都、绵阳、中江等站形变较大（形变最大的郫县站最大振幅达1.034 m）;位于震中南侧的邛崃、雅安等站形变较小。利用动态时序的地震波到时和震中距离估计地震波地壳平均速度为3.1 km/s。     

新疆河流年径流量对夏季0C层高度变化的响应

According to climate features and river runoff conditions, Xinjiang could be divided into three research areas: The Altay-Tacheng region, the Tianshan Mountain region and the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. Utilizing daily observations from 12 sounding stations and the annual runoff dataset from 34 hydrographical stations in Xinjiang for the period 1960-2002, the variance of the summertime 0℃ level height and the changing trends of river runoff are analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively, through trend contrast of curves processed by a 5-point smoothing procedure and linear correlation. The variance of the summertime 0℃ level height in Xinjiang correlates well with that of the annual river runoff,especially since the early 1990s, but it differs from region to region, with both the average height of the 0℃ level and runoff quantity significantly increasing over time in the Altay-Tacheng and Tianshan Mountain regions but decreasing on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The correlation holds for the whole of Xinjiang as well as the three individual regions, with a 0.01 significance level. This indicates that in recent years, climate change in Xinjiang has affected not only the surface layer but also the upper levels of the atmosphere, and this raising and lowering of the summertime 0℃ level has a direct impact on the warming and wetting process in Xinjiang and the amount of river runoff. Warming due to climate change increases the height of the 0℃ level, but also speeds up, ice-snow melting in mountain regions, which in turn increases river runoff, leading to a season of plentiful water instead of the more normal low flow period.     

A new model for analyzing nonlinear torsion behavior of concrete filled steel tube columns with rectangular section

An experimental study on concrete filled steel tube columns with rectangular section subjected to compressionflexure-torsion combined action has been carried out. The failure modes and load-deformation hysteretic relations were obtained. Based on the principles of classical material mechanics, the relations between the torsion curvature of the section and the shear strain of the fiber on the section were established. Then the strain distribution on the rectangular section of concrete filled steel tube columns subjected to torsion was analyzed. The three-dimensional refined finite element model was also built, in order to make the precision verification. The matrix forms of the relation between the torsion curvature of the section and the shear strain of the fiber on the section were derived, and introduced into the fiber beam model considering nonlinear torsion effect on the section. The comparison between test results and calculation results showed that the fiber beam model considering nonlinear torsion effect had high modeling efficiency and solution precision for predicting the torsion behavior of concrete filled steel tube columns with rectangular sections, and was suitable for analyzing the dynamic response of various structures subjected to the combined cyclic load caused by the earthquake load.