基于Copula的近60a京津冀地区干旱灾害危险性评估

干旱灾害是京津冀地区主要气象灾害之一,严重影响社会经济和粮食安全。评估京津冀地区干旱灾害危险性,识别高危险区,旨在为灾害防范和应急调控提供参考。利用1958—2017年37个气象站降水日数据,计算标准化降水指数（SPI6）,根据游程理论界定干旱历时和干旱强度。运用K-S检验法、AIC法分别确定指标的最优边缘分布函数和Copula函数,计算5 a、10 a、30 a及50 a一遇水平下干旱强度和干旱历时的重现期。结果表明：京津冀地区20世纪60年代中期至今SPI6呈下降趋势;指数分布和广义极值分布分别是干旱历时和干旱强度的最优边缘分布,Frank Copula在变量联合概率分布计算时拟合最好;就干旱历时和干旱强度重现期而言,30 a、50 a一遇水平下联合重现期为,北京市、沧州市、衡水市及承德市北部等地区的重现期长,危险性低,其余地区危险性较高;站点干旱灾害的联合重现期理论值与实际情况较符合,能够反映实际灾害情况。     

A deep learning approach for detecting candidates of supernova remnants

Detecting supernova remnant(SNR) candidates in the interstellar medium is a challenging task because SNRs have weak radio signals and irregular shapes. The use of a convolutional neural network is a deep learning method that can help us extract various features from images. To extract SNRs from astronomical images and estimate the positions of SNR candidates, we design the SNR-Net model composed of a training component and a detection component. In addition, transfer learning is used to initialize the network parameters, which improves the speed and accuracy of network training. We apply a T-T plot(of the different brightness temperatures of map pixels at two different frequencies) to calculate the spectral index of SNR candidates. To accelerate the scientific computing process, we take advantage of innovative hardware architecture, such as deep learning optimized graphics processing units, which increases the speed of computation by a factor of 5. A case study suggests that SNR-Net may be applicable to detecting extended sources in the images automatically.     

Physiological changes of submerged macrophytes in response to a floating filamentous green algae bloom in clear-water conditions

The aim of this study was to evaluate the physiological responses of a submerged macrophyte to a floating fi lamentous green algal bloom in clear-water conditions.Elodea nuttallii was grown with floating Cladophora sp.at four diff erent levels(0,control;140,280,560 g FW/m ~2)in an outdoor experimental system,and its photosynthetic and antioxidant systems were evaluated.The presence of floating Cladophora sp.signifi cantly changed the water environment by decreasing light intensity and increasing dissolved oxygen and the pH value.The photosynthetic parameters of E.nuttallii(e.g.?F/F _m~￠,F _v/F _m,total chlorophyll)were higher in the presence of floating Cladophora sp.than in the control at the beginning of experiment.Because of the increasing dissolved oxygen concentration and pH value,the values of these indicators decreased(except for photosynthetic pigments)during the experiment.Compared with E.nuttallii in the control,E.nuttallii growing in the presence of floating Cladophora sp.showed higher malondialdehyde content,catalase activity,and peroxidase activity.The biomass of E.nuttallii was decreased by about 30% in the presence of high biomasses of floating Cladophora sp.(280 and 560 g FW/m ~2).These results suggest that floating Cladophora had complex eff ects on the biomass of E.nuttallii and that changes in water quality resulting from floating Cladophora sp.may be more important than its direct shading eff ect.     

Changing Connectivities of Chinese Cities in the World City Network,2010–2016

Against the backdrop of the sizable economic growth of China in recent years, this paper uses the most recent data gathering of the Globalization and World Cities(Ga WC) research network to update and supplement earlier research on the shifting global connectivity of Chinese cities. The update consists of an evaluation of the connectivity of Chinese cities in 2016, the supplement of an analysis of the changing position of Chinese cities in the world city network between 2010 and 2016. To this end, we build on a specification of the world city network as an ‘interlocking network' in which producer services firms play the crucial role in city network formation. Information about the presence of leading producer services firms in cities in 2010 and 2016 is used as the input to a bipartite network projection algorithm in order to measure cities' network connectivity. The first set of results discusses the geographies of urban connectivity in the world city network in 2016. The second set of results discusses standardized measures of change to reveal the major dimensions of the transformations between 2010 and 2016. We find that, with the exception of Hong Kong, Macau and Kaohsiung of Taiwan, all Chinese cities record connectivity gains. This wholesale rise in connectivity is nonetheless geographically uneven, with above all Beijing, Chengdu/Chongqing and Changsha/Wuhan becoming more connected. We conclude that the wholesale rise of Chinese cities in the world city network and their changing trajectories in the post-crisis era are embedded in shifting external and internal political economies.     

Water Security-based Hydrological Regime Assessment Method for Lakes with Extreme Seasonal Water Level Fluctuations: A Case Study of Poyang Lake,China

Extreme seasonal water level fluctuations characterize natural floodplain lakes in monsoon regions, which are crucial for ensuring lake water security, including flood prevention water supply and health of aquatic ecosystem. In order to achieve this goal, we established a hydrological regime assessment method based on a set of hydrological indicators for lakes with heavy seasonal water level fluctuations. The results suggest that time-sensitive hydrological indicators and specific time scales for various water security aspects must be considered. We discovered that it is more practical and meaningful to combine the water level classification derived from statistical analyses with characteristic hydrological values linked to water security. The case study of Poyang Lake results show that there are no discernable trends of Poyang Lake water regime status over the last 35 years, and the two periods of poor status are in accordance with climate variation in the lake basin area. Scholars and policy makers should focus on both floods and droughts, which are the main water security problems for Poyang Lake. It is hoped that this multi-scale and multi-element hydrological regime assessment method will provide new guidelines and methods for other international scholars of river and lake water assessment.     

共模误差对坐标时间序列分析的影响

基于2013年至2018年环渤海地区GPS基站6年的观测数据,研究了共模误差对坐标时间序列分析的影响。首先利用主成分分析方法提取环渤海区域27个基准站的共模误差,以N、E、U三个方向的第一主成分来计算共模误差;然后使用最大似然估计法得到各测站剔除共模误差前后的噪声。发现在消除共模误差后,N,E,U方向的相对坐标时间序列得到改善,白噪声,闪烁噪声和随机行走噪声明显减小。结果表明,共模误差的剔除有效的提高了坐标时间序列分析的精度。     

香鱼(Plecoglossus altivelis) JNK1基因克隆及其在成熟卵过熟进程中的表达变化

c-Jun氨基端激酶(c-JunN-terminalkinases,JNKs)是丝裂原活化蛋白激酶(mitogen-activated protein kinase, MAPK)蛋白超家族成员之一,参与细胞骨架构建、细胞凋亡等多种细胞活动。本研究克隆了香鱼(Plecoglossusaltivelis)JNK1基因cDNA序列,并检测了其成熟卵在排入体腔保存不同时间(0—96h)的过熟过程中JNK1基因的表达变化。结果显示,香鱼JNK1基因cDNA序列全长1670bp,含一个长度1155bp的开放读码框,编码384个氨基酸,预测蛋白分子质量约44.2kDa、理论等电点6.61。氨基酸序列多重比对显示硬骨鱼类中JNK1氨基酸序列高度保守,香鱼与黄鳝的JNK1序列相似性最高(97.6%)。系统进化树分析显示各种脊椎动物的JNK1、JNK2、JNK3分别聚为一簇;本研究获得的香鱼JNK1位于JNK1大簇中并与黄鳝JNK1优先相聚,表明二者进化关系较近。RT-PCR检测结果显示健康香鱼JNK1基因在脑和性腺中高表达,肝和鳃中无表达。实时荧光定量PCR检测显示香鱼成熟卵JNK1基因的表达变化与卵的受精率、孵化率随保存时间延长而降低之间存在相关性:成熟卵随保存时间的延长JNK1表达量逐渐升高、在48h时达到峰值(24h、48h时的表达量分别为0h时的1.49倍和2.55倍),在此期间卵有较高的受精率和孵化率(48h时分别为88.99%和67.32%);保存时间继续延长时卵内JNK1基因都处于高表达水平,72h和96h时的表达量分别为0h时的2.32倍和1.53倍,而卵的质量也在保存超过48h后急剧下降(72h时受精率和孵化率分别为50.2%和25.54%)直至基本失去受精、孵化能力(96h时受精率和孵化率分别为10.83%和0.54%)。综上,香鱼JNK1基因表达上调与香鱼成熟卵的过熟凋亡过程密切相关,为深入研究香鱼JNK1基因的功能及卵过熟机制提供了基础资料。     

基于大涡模拟的三角形地形之层结流体湍动能收支模型

为了探究海底地形对湍流动能收支的影响,本文使用并行大涡模拟模式(The Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model,PALM),以坡陡作为无量纲地形参数(δ),设置了亚临界、临界和超临界三种地形状态(δ=0.5,1和2)进行数值模拟。文章计算并呈现了地形作用下的流体速度和湍流动能收支分布,以及湍流动能平衡方程各参量。通过回归分析和量纲分析重点讨论了地形顶点处耗散和海表处能量的耗散,与地形坡陡的关系,得出其关系均呈指数形式。     

九龙江口海门岛红树林湿地大型底栖动物群落生态研究

为研究福建省九龙江口海门岛大型底栖动物的群落结构变化,于2014年11月至2015年8月对海门岛红树林区的大型底栖动物进行4个季度的调查研究,并利用PRIMER软件进行群落物种多样性单变量分析、群落聚类分析(Cluster)、多维尺度排序(MDS)分析和丰度/生物量曲线(ABC)分析.结果表明:九龙江口海门岛红树林区获得大型底栖动物共计112种,年平均生物量为77. 58 g/m2,年平均栖息密度为991. 0 ind/m2. Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H')、丰富度指数(d)和均匀度指数(J')分别为2. 42、5. 02和0. 70,其中春季生物多样性指数和均匀度指数均最低,与春季生物的繁殖有关.ABC曲线表明该区域有三分之一采样点的大型底栖动物群落受到中等到严重程度的扰动,主要集中在春季站位,这与该季节渔民滩涂养殖作业活动有关. Cluster聚类分析和MDS标序结果表明,在50%的相似性水平群落可分为6组,且不同组间显示季节差异显著.结合历史资料发现,大型底栖动物群落随环境质量的变化已出现了一定的群落演替,物种呈小型化趋势.环境因子与群落分布特征相关性较大,其中最能解释群落丰度和生物量空间分布特征的环境因子为水温、盐度和有机质含量.     

海洋油田平台水下安防系统航迹融合与报警技术

多传感器信息融合技术是对各个传感器的观测数据进行综合处理的过程,是多学科、多领域的高层次共性关键技术。以多源信息融合技术为基础,对 AIS、雷达与声呐多源探测信息融合算法进行了较为深入地研究,提出适应水下安防系统的多源信息融合与报警技术的工程化应用方案,对实际应用情况做了简要总结,经验证该技术能够较好应用于水下安防系统的数据分析和分级报警中。