Using data‐driven methods to explore the predictability of surface soil moisture with FLUXNET site data

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable of land surface‐atmosphere interactions. Data‐driven methods have been used to predict SM, but the predictability of SM has not been well evaluated. This study investigated what variables and methods can be used to better predict SM for leading times of 7 days or longer with a global coverage of FLUXNET site data for the first time. Three machine‐learning models, that is, Bayesian linear regression, random forest, and gradient boosting regression tree, are used for the prediction. Variables including atmospheric forcing, surface soil temperature, time variables (year, day of year, and hour), the Fourier transformation of time variables, and lagged SM (7‐ to 14‐day lagged) were sequentially added into models. A framework with five experiments is designed for factorial exploration of SM predictability. A stepwise method was used to build the best models for each site. The performance of regression models became better when adding more explaining variables in most cases. The results showed that from 50 to 95% of variation of the best models can be explained. The important explaining variables are lagged surface SM, followed by day of year, year, soil temperature, and atmospheric forcing. The predictability of SM depends highly on SM memory characteristics and the persistence of seasonality. The effect of SM memory characteristics on SM prediction as an initial condition question has been widely discussed in this paper. Our results also provide an insight that mechanisms of seasonality effects on SM should be also paid more attention to.     

The social impacts of tourism — A case study in Dali,Yunnan province,China

Ancient town Dali is located in northwest Yunnan Province. With its ancient history and natural scenery, it is preserved as one of the first 24 historical and cultural towns in China. Dali has become one of the most popular attractions for foreign tourists since it had its first foreign visitors in 1983. As a result, English came into the life of the local people. This paper presents and explains the results of questionnaires and interviews about Dali people’s attitude toward learning English. Three types of questionnaires were designed to local businessmen, local residents and foreign tourists. Interviews were also given whenever possible. In this study, businessmen in Dali were divided into two distinct groups. One group had their business in “Foreigners’ Street”, which was in front of Hongshancha Hotel where many foreign tourists stayed. Another group had business in Fuxin Street, which was vertically across “Foreigners’ Street”. The 41 shops and restaurants in “Foreigners’ Street” served mainly foreign visitors, and most of them had English names and advertisements. The 353 shops and restaurants in Fuxin Street mainly catered for domestic visitors but also served more and more overseas ones. Subjects from local residents were mostly young people because aging ones were apparently not much affected by English. The results of the study showed that the oral English levels became lower from “Foreigners’ Street” to Fuxin Street to local residents, due to declining frequency of contact with foreign people. There were also distinct differences in general English level, the understanding of the importance of English, the purposes of communicating with foreign tourists, the willingness and purposes of going on learning English between businessmen in “Foreigners’ Street” and Fuxin Street: people in “Foreigners’ Street” had more positive feedback than those in Fuxin Street because their constant contact with foreigners required them to speak better English which enabled them to exchange with foreigners in many aspects, which in turn help them to know more about other cultures. On the other hand, Fuxin Street businessmen would catch up with more and more prospective contact with overseas people. Though local residents had nothing to do with foreign tourists, they met them in the street every day and might have to talk with them in unexpected ways. They lived in a place where they saw English advertisement every day. Accordingly, study results showed that they were very much motivated to learn English. They showed even stronger desire to learn more English than businessmen in “Foreigners’ Street”, though many of them were too young to tell why English was so important for them. This is an indication that English has become part of the necessary education for young people in Dali. With the development of tourism, Dali is gradually becoming a place where Chinese culture and western culture meet and coexist. This project was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

华北陆块南缘富碱侵入岩岩石组合及时空分布

华北陆块南缘（河南段）出露的富碱侵入岩类集中分布于卢氏－确山一线。岩石类型主要分为三大类：①碱性岩类，即含有似长石或碱性暗色矿物的正长岩类；②碱性花岗岩类，包括钠铁闪石花岗岩以及孪生的钾长花岗岩类；③石英正长岩类，包括碱性长石为主的石英正长岩、英碱正长岩和花岗正长（斑）岩类。在空间上构成一条富碱岩浆岩带，据岩石组合自北而南划为三个亚带：北部碱性岩亚带、中部碱性花岗岩类亚带和南部石英正长（斑）岩亚带。在形成时间上富碱岩浆活动集中于晚元古代末期（７００Ｍａ±）和海西晚期（３００Ｍａ±）。     

Isolation, cloning and sequencing of AFLP markers related to disease-resistance traits in Fenneropenaeus chinensis

Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) technique was used to analyze the fingerprinting of four successive generations ofFenneropenaeus chinensis to reveal their disease-resistance traits. Some loci showed quite different genetic frequencies due to artificial selection, which implied that these fragments were putative markers related to the disease-resistance trait. We developed a simple and effective method to further characterize these AFLP fragments. Specific AFLP bands were cut directly from polyacrylamide gels, re-amplified, cloned and sequenced. Eight putative genetic markers were sequenced and their sizes ranged from 63 to 209 bp. The sequences were submitted to dbGSS (database of Genome Sequence Survey); and the BLAST analysis showed low similarity to the function genes, indicating these markers were tightly linked to a disease-resistance trait but were not functional genes. This research was supported by special funds from the National Key Basic Research Program (G1999012007) and the National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China (863 Program. 2001AA620105).     

X波段双偏振雷达垂直指向法标定的应用

垂直指向法标定是双偏振雷达的差分反射率因子ZDR标定有效方法的一种,可以订正ZDR测量误差,提高雷达数据的质量。本文基于双发双收模式的X波段双线偏振天气雷达系统,通过分析雷达硬件系统和垂直指向法标定的数据,诊断了观测数值的一些质量问题,初步判断是方位旋转关节损坏而导致ZDR的数值在某一固定区域上出现较大偏差。更换新的方位旋转关节后,对比处理问题前后的垂直指向标定数据证明能有效解决此问题。最后,经过多次试验分析表明,当垂直指向法标定在回波强度为25.5~30.5dB之间的中等范围稳定的层状云降水情况下使用时,其标定的数据能有效订正系统ZDR偏移量。     

Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology

Phenological changes in crops affect efficient agricultural production and can be used as important biological indicators of local and regional climate change. Although crop phenological changes and their responses to climate change, especially temperature, have been investigated, the impact of agronomic practice such as cultivar shifts and planted date changes on crop phenology remains unclear. Here, we used a long-term dataset (1981–2010) of wheat phenology and associated local weather data from 48 agro-meteorological stations in four temperature zones in China to analyze phenological changes of spring and winter wheat. Trend analysis method was used to estimate changes in the date of growth stages and the duration of growth phases, while sensitivity analysis method was used to qualify the response of growth phase duration to mean temperature (T_mean), total precipitation (PRE), and total sunshine duration (SSD). Using the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-wheat model, we isolated the impacts of climate change, cultivar selection, and sowing date on phenological change of wheat. Results show that phenological changes were greatest in the warm-temperate zone. Sensitivity analysis indicates that growth phase duration was generally negatively related to T_mean and positively related to PRE and SSD. The positive sensitivity response to T_mean occurred in the tillering to jointing and sowing to maturity growth periods in the warmer temperature zones, suggesting that warmer temperatures during the overwintering period hampered effective vernalization in winter wheat. Modeling results further indicate that reductions in wheat growth duration caused by climate change could be offset by the introduction of new cultivars with high thermal requirements and accelerated with delayed sowing date.     

一次台风移出后MCC发展成因分析

应用FY-4A卫星云顶亮温(TBB)、自动站雨量资料和ERA5(0.25°×0.25°)再分析资料,对2020年第4号台风“黑格比”移出后在杭州湾生成MCC发展成因进行了分析。结果表明：(1)台风南侧的切变线辐合抬升作用以及南亚高压东部反气旋环流辐散抽吸作用,有利于中低空大气上升运动的增强,为MCC的发展增强提供良好的动力抬升条件;(2)低层台风北上后,其移动方向左后侧的冷空气南下,并与长三角地区的西南低空暖湿气流强烈交汇,斜压锋生增强,形成较强的上升运动;（3）受大陆高压东移影响,对流层中高层干冷空气东移,叠加在对流层中低空暖湿急流之上,形成了有利于MCC发生发展的大气位势不稳定层结;(4)切变线南端的西南低空急流不仅加强了低层大气的辐合和上升运动,更重要的是为MCC的发生发展提供丰富的水汽输送和汇聚;(5)水汽凝结潜热释放在MCC发展中起重要作用。水汽释放潜热加热大气,使上升运动增强,低层辐合进一步增强。低层水汽汇聚并不断向高空输送,补偿了高空凝结的水汽,潜热的不断释放,有利于MCC发展和维持。总之,台风中心移出后,台风南侧的切变线及其南侧的西南暖湿气流稳定地维持在MCC上空,为M...     

302铀矿床方解石C-O同位素组成与成矿动力学背景研究

302铀矿床规模大,垂幅深(达1000多米),是我国华南主要产铀花岗岩型铀矿床之一。研究表明该矿床的方解石是经大气降水与围岩发生水岩反应后的流体去气沉淀的;矿化剂∑CO2主要源自受控于岩石圈伸展导致的地幔去气,对铀成矿的作用一方面表现为加入到贫矿化剂的地下水中以便铀元素迁移,另一方面表现在从成矿流体中逸出,改变热液络离子组成,导致铀沉淀成矿;印支碰撞运动使华南地壳叠加增厚,部分熔融含铀结晶基底,为产铀岩体提供丰富的成矿物质来源;白垩纪-古近纪地壳拉张、岩石圈伸展所形成的深大断裂等不仅是矿化剂∑CO2主要通道,而且还是控制铀矿床形成的关键因素。     

Simultaneous determinations of U–Pb age,Hf isotopes and trace element compositions of zircon by excimer laser-ablation quadrupole and multiple-collector ICP-MS

We describe an in situ method for simultaneous measurement of U–Pb–Hf isotopes and trace element compositions of zircons using a quadrupole and multiple-collector inductively-coupled-plasma mass spectrometer (Q-ICP-MS and MC-ICP-MS, respectively) connected to a single excimer laser-ablation system. A laser-generated zircon aerosol was split behind the ablation cell into two transport tubes via a Y-shaped connector and simultaneously introduced into the two mass spectrometers. Hafnium isotopes were measured on the MC-ICP-MS instrument, while U–Pb ages and trace element compositions were determined using the Q-ICP-MS. The precision and accuracy of this method was evaluated using six well-known and widely used zircon standards (91500, Temora-2, GJ-1, Mud Tank, BR266 and Monastery). Analyses were carried out using spot sizes of 32, 44 and 60 μm. For the 44 and 60 μm spot, the resulting U–Pb ages, Hf isotopic and rare earth element (REE) compositions of these six zircons agree with recommended/reported values within 2σ error. The difference in relative standard deviations (RSD) of ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages between split-flow measurements and those obtained separately on the Q-ICP-MS is within ～ 20% for 91500, Temora-2 and GJ-1, and ～ 60% for Mud Tank (due to its lower U and Pb concentrations). Our method provides a precise approach for determining the U–Pb age and the Hf isotopic and trace element compositions of zircon within a single ablation event. This is in particular important for analysis of zircons that are small or contain complicated zoning patterns. Finally, the REE composition of zircon BR266 is more homogeneous than other zircons and could be a suitable standard by which to benchmark new standards for microprobe analyses of zircons.