中国地区集合预报产品自适应递减平均偏差订正法的改进研究

基于中国地区T213集合预报产品2 m温度预报数据,采用卡尔曼滤波类型的自适应递减平均法进行偏差订正处理,原方案在剧烈降温天气订正效果表现不理想。通过对递减平均参数w的重新构建得到改进的订正方案w(i,p)(i为站点信息,p为天气过程信息),在此基础上进一步优化对历史信息的有效提取,得到改进的方案w(i,p)相似法和w(i,p)统计法,并进行效果检验。结果表明:改进为包含空间和天气过程信息的函数w(i,p)后方案的订正效果得到不同程度的提高,其中24 h剧烈降温预报各成员预报均方根误差平均减小了0. 15℃;而进一步改进的w(i,p)统计法在当前几种剧烈降温预报中订正效果最优,其集合平均偏差与w(i,p)方案相比减小2. 54℃。     

静海地震台地磁加卸载响应比与邻区地震关系研究

研究分析了静海地磁台2002～2006年观测资料的加卸载响应比异常与邻区ML 4.0以上地震之间的关系,提出了适用于静海地磁台的地震分析预报异常形态特征和阈值判据.     

上海市居民乡村旅游行为特征及感知研究

运用旅游心理学原理,采用比较分析和交互分析等研究方法,分析了上海市居民乡村旅游的人口学特征、行为偏好以及效果感知,并提出加强乡村旅游宣传力度、观念创新和服务管理等建议.     

城市居民对乡村旅游影响的感知研究——以上海、南京为例

乡村旅游的发展必然会对乡村经济、社会文化和环境产生影响.以2006年9-11月在上海、南京两城市所作的700份问卷调查资料为基础,利用SPSS和Excel软件,定量分析了城市居民对乡村旅游影响的感知.结果表明:城市居民对乡村旅游影响正面感知强于负面感知;可分为中立者(37.3%)、理性支持者(37.8%)和矛盾支持者(24.9%)3类,支持者多于中立者;人口学特征不同,其感知存在一定差异.     

石油中饱合烃类的喇曼特征

本文试通过一些饱合烃类标样的喇曼分析,总结出石油中饱和烷烃组分的最大喇曼特征是在2700~2970 cm-1区域有一系列强烈的喇曼效应,有三种情况:1)直链烷烃类是以—CH3链基对称喇曼效应(约2872 cm-1)最强;2)带异构骨架链烷烃类是以—CH链基喇曼效应(约2911 cm-1)最强;3)环烷烃类是以—CH2链基对称喇曼效应(约2857 cm-1)最强。另外异构骨架在748 cm-1处有一强的喇曼效应,烷烃环基在804 cm-1处有一个强的喇曼效应。并发现不同的烃或烃混合物,若结构基团相同,喇曼谱图也相同;在混合烃组分(或烃类包裹体)的喇曼谱图中2905~2921 cm-1间喇曼峰应是—CH基团,而不能单作甲烷存在的证据。     

Estimation of peak relative velocity and peak absolute acceleration of linear SDOF systems

In the seismic analysis and design of structures, the true velocity and absolute acceleration are usually approximated by their corresponding pseudo-values. This approach is simple and works well for structures with small damping (say, less than 15%). When the damping of a structure is enhanced for the purpose of response reduction, it may result in large analysis and design errors. Based on theory of random vibration and the established mechanism of seismic response spectra analysis, a method is developed (1) to predict the relative velocity spectra with any damping ratio level directly from the 5% standard pseudo-acceleration spectrum; and (2) to estimate the peak absolute acceleration. The accuracy of both is validated by using two selected ensembles of ground motion records.     

苏州水乡古镇旅游形象定位研究——以部分水乡古镇为例

古镇旅游是当今旅游市场的新宠,苏州市水乡古镇众多,特色各异,为其水乡古镇旅游发展奠定了良好的资源基础.然而,基于水乡古镇旅游产品的趋同性,使得苏州水乡古镇在旅游业发展中竞争十分激烈,旅游形象战略成为各水乡古镇旅游业可持续发展的重要战略之一.文章从苏州各水乡古镇的旅游形象宣传口号出发,对部分水乡古镇旅游形象定位进行了对比分析,在此基础上,确定了苏州水乡古镇旅游形象定位的原则,提出旅游形象定位的建议,以期促进其旅游业的协调和可持续发展.     

Spatial variations of dimethylsulfide and dimethylsulfoniopropionate in the surface microlayer and in the subsurface waters of the South China Sea during springtime

Spatial variations in dimethylsulfide (DMS) and dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) were surveyed in the surface microlayer and in the subsurface waters of the low productivity South China Sea in May 2005. Overall, average subsurface water concentrations of DMS and DMSP of dissolved (DMSPd) and particulate (DMSPp) fractions were 1.74 (1.00-2.50), 3.92 (2.21-6.54) and 6.06 (3.40-8.68) nM, respectively. No enrichment in DMS and DMSPp was observed in the microlayer. In contrast, the microlayer showed a DMSPd enrichment, with an average enrichment factor (EF, defined as the ratio of the microlayer concentration to subsurface water concentration) of 1.40. In the study area, none of the sulfur components were correlated with chlorophyll a. An important finding in this study was that DMS, DMSP and chlorophyll a concentrations in the surface microlayer were respectively correlated with those in the subsurface water, suggesting a close linkage between these two water bodies. The ratios of DMS:Chl-a and DMSPp:Chl-a showed a gradually increasing trend from North to South. This might be due to changes in the proportion of DMSP producers in the phytoplankton community with the increased surface seawater temperature. A clear diurnal variation in the DMS and DMSP concentrations was observed at an anchor station with the highest concentrations appearing during the day and the lowest concentrations during the night. The higher DMS and DMSP concentrations during daytime might be attributed to the light-induced increase in both algal synthesis and exudation of DMSP and biological production of DMS. The mean flux of DMS from the investigated area to the atmosphere was estimated to be 2.06 micromo lm(-2)d(-1). This low DMS emission flux, together with the low DMS surface concentrations was attributed to the low productivity in this sea.     

2006年4月17日北京特大降尘的地球化学特征

2006年4月17日北京遭遇了近年来最为严重的一次降尘天气。分析了降尘的主量、微量和稀土元素地球化学特征,并与洛川马兰黄土和几次北京降尘进行对比,结果显示本次北京降尘与洛川马兰黄土具有相似的元素分布模式,表明与黄土具有相似的物质组成,并在搬运过程中经历了充分的混合,同时,北京降尘与黄土相比具有一定程度的差异性,表现为北京降尘中Mg、Na相时富集,Ca明显亏损并含有较高的烧失量,降尘CIA值较低,表明降尘源区化学风化程度较弱,处于化学风化的初始阶段,降尘∑REE显著高于黄土,同时轻、重稀土分馏程度也较黄土高,4次北京降尘间稀土元素分布模式对比表明,粒度是影响重稀土元素间分馏程度不同的主要因素。     

青岛奥帆基地海域漂浮浒苔光合生理特点研究

研究了青岛奥帆基地海域漂浮浒苔Enteromorpha prolifera （Muell）J.Ag.色素组成及含量、光合放氧及呼吸耗氧速率、P／R（净光合放氧速率／净呼吸耗氧速率）、抗氰呼吸等各项生理指标。结果表明,该海域漂浮浒苔的各项生理指标都在正常范围内,且有抗氰呼吸的存在,生长状况良好。