不同强风样本湍流特性参数的计算分析

在结构风工程中, 风湍流统计参数计算的正确与否直接影响到风荷载的计算精度。在实际风参数计算与分析中, 多选用风速较大的样本资料, 但过分强调大风可能产生不合理的计算结果。利用超声风速仪瞬时风速观测资料, 分别划分成相对强风和持续强风样本, 计算并比较其湍流统计特性参数, 发现湍流统计参数特性值 (湍流度、阵风因子、摩擦速度等) 与风速大小并不能很好匹配, 有时风速不大但其湍流特性值却很大, 反之也然。研究表明:选取的湍流风资料样本或统计方法不同, 都会影响风特性参数的计算结果, 进而影响到风荷载计算的精度。这一结果对于提高结构风工程中风参数计算与设计的科学性和合理性具有现实意义。     

珠江三角洲秋季大气边界层温度和风廓线观测研究

根据2004年10月珠江三角洲3个代表性观测点大气边界层观测资料, 分析了珠江三角洲秋季大气边界层温度和风廓线特征。结果表明:珠江三角洲秋季气温递减率较低, 逆温出现频率较高, 强度较弱, 海风使珠江口贴地逆温的出现时间推迟、低空逆温的出现频率增加。珠江三角洲秋季受多种局地环流影响, 边界层内风廓线比较复杂, 晚上城市群与非城市群地区风向有明显差别; 城市群和珠江口多次分别观测到城市热岛环流和海风环流。     

Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL）

Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon （A-AM） precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation （IAV）, and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming （cooling） in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO.
We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude： （1） successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; （2） more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; （3） the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.     

中外气象台站历史沿革数据文件比较分析

着重介绍中外气象台站历史沿革数据文件的内容和格式,并将我国研究制定的《气象台站历史沿革数据文件格式》标准的基本内容与全球气候观测系统(GCOS)和美国国家气候资料中心(NCDC)的台站沿革项目内容进行了比较和分析。我国的气象台站历史沿革数据文件格式和内容的选择充分参考了国外相关文件,既具有国际通用性,能够满足国际资料交换所需要的台站沿革信息,又具有业务实用性,能够满足气象数据分析和应用业务需求。     

多普勒雷达探测“艾利”台风风场不对称结构

2004年8月25日, “艾利”台风在靠近我国台湾东北部海域后不同于正常路径, 先后发生两次左折, 先是西北转偏西, 再偏西转西南, 这种路径在历史上极为罕见。通过“艾利”台风的雷达观测事实, 从单多普勒雷达和双多普勒雷达均发现在台风前进方向的右前方, 即西北象限风速极值大于其他象限, 进一步证明了“艾利”台风的风场分布遵循波数为1的非对称性, 从位于台风不同象限的福州长乐和厦门两站雷达资料, 以及常规的地面观测、高空探测资料和NCEP数值预报再分析资料都得到证实。研究表明, “艾利”台风处在大陆高压东南侧, 台风外围存在一支7 m/s左右的环境风场引导气流。因此, 西北象限风速极值大于其他象限的不对称分布可能是由环境风场和台风本身两方面共同造成的, 这种不对称分布有利于维持“艾利”台风向西南方向移动。在我国东南沿海地区, 由于单部多普勒雷达不可能同时探测到台风的西北、东北和西南3个象限的风速极值, 而双多普勒雷达或多多普勒雷达联合探测台风, 则可以同时探测到3个象限的风速极值, 根据风速极值可能存在的不对称分布情况来预测台风的路径转折趋势, 因此重视双多普勒雷达或多多普勒雷达联合探测对于提高监测预报水平具有重要的意义。     

2007年初一次雪后大雾天气过程分析

大雾天气是主要的灾害性天气之一。利用多种观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析了2007年1月15日华北和黄淮地区的雪后大雾天气产生的天气背景及其形成的温湿条件和层结特征。结果表明:在这次大雾天气发生时,亚欧大陆中高纬度的环流形势为两槽一脊型,中纬度无明显冷空气活动,南支气流较为平直,天气形势比较稳定。华北和黄淮地区位于入海高压的后部,近地面层有弱的东北风或偏东风,即有利于海洋上暖湿气流的平流输送,又不至于破坏大雾形成的温湿条件。同时,大气层结是绝对稳定的,低层有深厚的逆温层,当暖湿空气平流到温度较低的下垫面上时冷却而形成雾,因而这次大雾天气属于典型的平流雾。这种形势的稳定维持,造成了这次持续时间较长的大范围的大雾天气。另外,华北和黄淮较低的海拔高度,有利于暖湿空气的平流进入,也是大雾形成的重要因子。     

区域极轨卫星ATOVS辐射偏差订正方法研究

近年来,卫星辐射资料在数值天气预报(NWP)系统中的直接同化研究取得了长足进展.为了利用TIROS业务垂直探测器(ATOVS)的辐射资料,必须对卫星观测辐射值的系统性偏差进行订正.在ECMWF原全球TOVS辐射偏差订正方案基础上,结合ATOVS资料特征和中国的实际情况,建立了适用于区域NOAA-15/16/17极轨气象卫星ATOVS辐射资料的偏差订正方案.该方案偏差订正分两步进行:首先进行扫描偏差订正,然后进行气团偏差订正.扫描偏差是临边测量相对于星下点测量的系统偏差,统计显示该种偏差具有一定的纬度依赖性,所以订正时按每10度的纬度带分别进行订正.气团偏差订正主要就是根据当时的天气条件进行订正,而天气条件一般用预报因子来定量表示.文中从中国国家气象中心T213背景场导出预报因子:(1) 1000-300 hPa的厚度,(2) 200-50 hPa的厚度,(3) 模式地表温度,(4) 总可降水量.模式预报因子的使用从观念上将对观测值的订正变为对计算前向辐射值的订正问题.试验结果表明,订正结果显著.     

西北区域气象计量实验室综合能力比对结果分析

分析评价西北区域参加实验室比对的试验结果,及时发现问题并进行纠正,总结实施实验间比对工作的经验,提高实验室检定/校准能力和质量管理水平。参加比对的计量检定实验室分别对气压、温度、湿度、风速比对样品进行比对试验,用归一化偏差(En)进行统计分析。2011年西北区域气象计量检定的温度、湿度、气压实验室比对结果为满意,风速实验室比对结果为较满意。该次比对的实验数据客观、真实、可信,是对各参加比对实验室检定/校准能力的综合评价,较为客观地反映了各技术机构检定装置的测量能力、检定人员的技术水平以及西北区域气象计量标准装置的现状。     

Seasonal prediction for tropical cyclone frequency around Taiwan using teleconnection patterns

In this study, a statistical model is developed to predict the frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) that influence Taiwan in boreal summer. Predictors are derived from large-scale environments from February to May in six regions, including four atmospheric circulation predictors over the western sea and eastern sea of Australia, the subtropical western North Pacific (SWNP), and the eastern sea of North America, and two sea surface temperature predictors in the Southeast Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic. The statistical model is verified based on statistical cross-validation tests and by contrasting the differences in the large-scale environments between high and low TC frequency years hindcasted by the model. The results show the relationships of two atmospheric circulation predictors and one SST predictor around Australia with Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) pattern, as well as the relationships of those in the SWNP and around eastern sea of North America with Pacific/North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. When the anomalous anticyclone around Australia (positive AAO pattern) and the one over the region from eastern sea of North America and the Aleutian Islands to the SWNP (negative PNA pattern) are both strengthened from February, the trade wind in the equatorial Pacific is intensified and consequently plays an important role in steering TCs towards Taiwan during boreal summer.     

CMIP5/AMIP GCM simulations of East Asian summer monsoon

The East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is a distinctive component of the Asian climate system and critically influences the economy and society of the region.To understand the ability of AGCMs in capturing the major features of EASM,10 models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5/AMIP）,which used observational SST and sea ice to drive AGCMs during the period 1979-2008,were evaluated by comparing with observations and AMIP Ⅱ simulations.The results indicated that the multi-model ensemble （MME） of CMIP5/AMIP captures the main characteristics of precipitation and monsoon circulation,and shows the best skill in EASM simulation,better than the AMIP Ⅱ MME.As for the Meiyu/Changma/Baiyu rainbelt,the intensity of rainfall is underestimated in all the models.The biases are caused by a weak western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） and accompanying eastward southwesterly winds in group Ⅰ models,and by a too strong and west-extended WPSH as well as westerly winds in group Ⅱ models.Considerable systematic errors exist in the simulated seasonal migration of rainfall,and the notable northward jumps and rainfall persistence remain a challenge for all the models.However,the CMIP5/AMIP MME is skillful in simulating the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI）.