Emission scenario dependencies in climate change assessments of the hydrological cycle

Anthropogenic global warming will lead to changes in the global hydrological cycle. The uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming across coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) has been actively examined. On the other hand, the uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity in different emission scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols has received little attention. Here we show a robust emission-scenario dependency (ESD); smaller global precipitation sensitivities occur in higher GHG and aerosol emission scenarios. Although previous studies have applied this ESD to the multi-AOGCM mean, our surprising finding is that current AOGCMs all have the common ESD in the same direction. Different aerosol emissions lead to this ESD. The implications of the ESD of precipitation sensitivity extend far beyond climate analyses. As we show, the ESD potentially propagates into considerable biases in impact assessments of the hydrological cycle via a widely used technique, so-called pattern scaling. Since pattern scaling is essential to conducting parallel analyses across climate, impact, adaptation and mitigation scenarios in the next report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, more attention should be paid to the ESD of precipitation sensitivity.     

Extremely Na- and Cl-rich chondrule from the CV3 carbonaceous chondrite Allende

We report on a study of Al3509, a large Na- and Cl-rich, radially-zoned object from the oxidized CV carbonaceous chondrite Allende. Al3509 consists of fine-grained ferroan olivine, ferroan Al-diopside, nepheline, sodalite, and andradite, and is crosscut by numerous veins of nepheline, sodalite, and ferroan Al-diopside. Some poorly-characterized phases of fine-grained material are also present; these phases contain no significant H₂O. The minerals listed above are commonly found in Allende CAIs and chondrules and are attributed to late-stage iron-alkali-halogen metasomatic alteration of primary high-temperature minerals. Textural observations indicate that Al3509 is an igneous object. However, no residual crystals that might be relicts of pre-existing CAI or chondrule minerals were identified. To establish the levels of ²⁶Al and ³⁶Cl originally present, ²⁶Al-²⁶Mg and ³⁶Cl-³⁶S isotopic systematics in sodalite were investigated. Al3509 shows no evidence of radiogenic ²⁶Mg^∗, establishing an upper limit of the initial ²⁶Al/²⁷Al ratio of 3 × 10⁻⁶. All sodalite grains measured show large but variable excesses of ³⁶S, which, however, do not correlate with ³⁵Cl/³⁴S ratio. If these excesses are due to decay of ³⁶Cl, local redistribution of radiogenic ³⁶S^∗ after ³⁶Cl had decayed is required. The oxygen-isotope pattern in Al3509 is the same as found in secondary minerals resulting from iron-alkali-halogen metasomatic alteration of Allende CAIs and chondrules and in melilite and anorthite of most CAIs in Allende. The oxygen-isotope data suggest that the secondary minerals precipitated from or equilibrated with a fluid of similar oxygen-isotope composition. These observations suggest that the formation of Al3509 and alteration products in CAIs and chondrules in Allende requires a very similar fluid phase, greatly enriched in volatiles (e.g., Na and Cl) and with Δ¹⁷O ∼ −3‰. We infer that internal heating of planetesimals by ²⁶Al would efficiently transfer volatiles to their outer portions and enhance the formation of volatile-enriched minerals there. We conclude that the site for the production of Na- and Cl-rich fluids responsible for the formation of Al3509 and the alteration of the Allende CAIs and chondrules must have been on a protoplanetary body prior to incorporation into the Allende meteorite. Galactic cosmic rays cannot be the source of the inferred initial ³⁶Cl in Allende. The problem of ³⁶Cl production by solar energetic particle (SEP) bombardment and the possibility that ³⁶Cl and ⁴¹Ca might be the product of neutron capture resulting from SEP bombardment of protoplanetary surfaces are discussed. This hypothesis can be tested comparing inferred “initial” ³⁶Cl with neutron fluencies measured on the same samples and on phases showing ³⁶S^∗ by Sm and Gd isotopic measurements.     

A mathematical model of spit growth and barrier elongation: Application to Fire Island Inlet (USA) and Badreveln Spit (Sweden)

A mathematical model of spit growth and barrier elongation adjacent to an inlet (of arbitrary width), supplied by sediment coming from longshore sediment transport, was developed based on the spit growth model proposed by Kraus (1999). The fundamental governing equation is the conservation equation for sand, where the width of the spit is assumed constant during growth. The portion of the longshore sediment transport feeding the spit has been estimated based on the ratio between the depth of the inlet channel and the depth of active longshore transport. Sediment transport from the channel due to the inlet flow, as well as other sinks of sand (e.g., dredging), are taken into account. Measured data on spit elongation at Fire Island Inlet, United States, and at Badreveln Spit, Sweden, were used to validate the model. The simulated results agree well with the measured data at both study sites, where spit growth at Fire Island was restricted by the inlet flow and the growth at Badreveln Spit was unrestricted. The model calculation for Fire Island Inlet indicates that the dredging to maintain channel navigation is the major reason for the stable period observed from 1954 to 1994 at the Fire Island barrier. The average annual net longshore transport rate at the eastern side of the Fire Island inlet obtained in this study was about 220,000 m³/yr, of which approximately 165,000 m³/yr (75% of the net longshore transport) is deposited in the inlet feeding the spit growth, whereas the remaining portion (25%) is bypassed downdrift through the ebb shoal complex.     

H 0 from an orientation-unbiased sample of Sunyaev–Zel'dovich and X-ray clusters

We have observed the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ) effect in a sample of five moderate-redshift clusters with the Ryle Telescope, and used them in conjunction with X-ray imaging and spectral data from ROSAT and ASCA to measure the Hubble constant. This sample was chosen with a strict X-ray flux limit using both the Bright Cluster Sample and the Northern ROSAT All-Sky Survey (RASS) cluster catalogues to be well above the surface brightness limit of the RASS, and hence to be unbiased with respect to the orientation of the cluster. This controls a major potential systematic effect in the SZ/X-ray method of measuring H ₀. Taking the weighted geometric mean of the results and including the main sources of error, namely the noise in the SZ measurement, the uncertainty in the X-ray temperatures and the unknown ellipticity and substructure of the clusters, we find   H ₀= 59⁺¹⁰₋₉ (random)⁺⁸₋₇(systematic) km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹  assuming a standard cold dark matter model with  Ω_M= 1.0, Ω_Λ= 0.0  or   H ₀= 66⁺¹¹₋₁₀ ⁺⁹₋₈ km  s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹  if  Ω_M= 0.3, Ω_Λ= 0.7  .     

Near-infrared study of CIZA J1324.7-5736, the second richest cluster of galaxies in the Great Attractor

We present the result of a deep near-infrared survey of the newly identified X-ray luminous cluster of galaxies CIZA J1324.7-5736 in the Great Attractor (GA) region. In a 35 × 35 arcmin² region, 111 galaxy candidates with   r _{Ks 20} > arcsec  are identified. Comparison of the extinction-corrected   K _s   -band luminosity function of CIZA J1324.7-5736 with those of nearby clusters indicates that the richness class of CIZA J1324.7-5736 is almost the same as, or richer than, the Pavo, Centaurus and Hydra clusters but poorer than the Coma, Perseus and Norma clusters. CIZA J1324.7-5736 is possibly the second richest cluster in the GA region following the Norma cluster. The position of CIZA J1324.7-5736 [in the ( l , b , v ) space] is close to the Centaurus–Crux cluster and the agglomeration of galaxies detected by the Parkes H  i survey. CIZA J1324.7-5736, together with the Centaurus–Crux cluster and the H  i galaxy agglomeration, is most likely to be one of the richest local concentrations in the GA overdensity of galaxies.     

The evidence of an early stellar encounter in Edgeworth-Kuiper belt

We investigate the influence of a stellar fly-by encounter on the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt objects through numerical orbital calculations, in order to explain both mass depletion and high orbital inclinations of the classical Edgeworth-Kuiper belt (CEKB) objects, which have semimajor axis of 42-48 AU and perihelia beyond 35 AU. The observationally inferred total mass of the CEKB is ∼1/10 Earth masses, which is only ∼0.02 of that extrapolated from the minimum-mass solar nebula model. The CEKB consists of bimodal population: “hot population” with inclinations i?0.2-0.6 radians and “cold population” with i?0.1. The observationally suggested difference in size and color of objects between the two populations may imply different origins of the two populations. We find that both the depletion of solid materials in the CEKB and the formation of the hot population are accounted for by a single close stellar encounter with pericenter distance of 80-100 AU and inclination relative to the initial protoplanetary disk ?50°-70°. Such a stellar encounter highly pumps up eccentricities of most objects in the CEKB and then their perihelia migrate within 35 AU. These objects would be removed by Neptune's perturbations after Neptune is formed at or migrates to the current position (30 AU). Less than 10% of the original objects remain in stable orbits with small eccentricities and perihelion distances larger than 35 AU, in the CEKB, which is consistent with the observation. We find that i of the remaining objects are as large as that of the observed hot population. The only problem is how to stop Neptune's migration at ∼30 AU, which is addressed in a separate paper. The depletion by the stellar encounter extends deeply into ∼30-35 AU, which provides the basis of the formation model for the cold population through Neptune's outward migration by Levison and Morbidelli (2003, Nature, 426, 419-421). The combination of our model with Levison and Morbidelli's model could consistently explain the mass depletion, truncation at 50 AU, bimodal distribution in i, and differences in size and color between the hot and the cold populations in the CEKB.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987114000280

Characteristic infrasound waves observed at Antarctic stations demonstrate physical interaction involving environmental changes in the Antarctic continent and the surrounding oceans.A Chaparraltype infrasound sensor was installed at Syowa Station(SYO;39°E,69°S),East Antarctica,as one of the projects of the International Polar Year(IPY2007—2008).Data continuously recorded during the three seasons in 2008—2010 clearly indicate a contamination of the background oceanic signals(microbaroms)with peaks between 4 and 10 s observed during a whole season.The peak amplitudes of the microbaroms have relatively lower values during austral winters,caused by a larger amount of sea-ice extending around the L(u|")tzow-Holm Bay near SYO,with decreasing ocean wave loading effects.Microbaroms measurements are useful tool for characterizing ocean wave climate,complementing other oceanographic and geophysical data.A continuous monitoring by infrasound sensors in the Antarctic firmly contributes to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty(CTBT) in the southern high latitude,together with the Pan-Antarctic Observations System(PAntOS) under the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research(SCAR).Detailed measurements of the infrasound waves in Antarctica,consequently,could be a new proxy for monitoring regional environmental change as well as the temporal climate variations in the polar regions.     

Simulation of soil liquefaction distribution in downtown Mashiki during 2016 Kumamoto earthquake using nonlinear site response

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Several sites located between Road No.28 and Akitsu River in downtown Mashiki were liquefied during the mainshock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. According to...     

Mineral chemistry of MUSES‐C Regio inferred from analysis of dust particles collected from the first‐ and second‐touchdown sites on asteroid Itokawa

The mineralogy and mineral chemistry of Itokawa dust particles captured during the first and second touchdowns on the MUSES‐C Regio were characterized by synchrotron‐radiation X‐ray diffraction and field‐emission electron microprobe analysis. Olivine and low‐ and high‐Ca pyroxene, plagioclase, and merrillite compositions of the first‐touchdown particles are similar to those of the second‐touchdown particles. The two touchdown sites are separated by approximately 100 meters and therefore the similarity suggests that MUSES‐C Regio is covered with dust particles of uniform mineral chemistry of LL chondrites. Quantitative compositional properties of 48 dust particles, including both first‐ and second‐touchdown samples, indicate that dust particles of MUSES‐C Regio have experienced prolonged thermal metamorphism, but they are not fully equilibrated in terms of chemical composition. This suggests that MUSES‐C particles were heated in a single asteroid at different temperatures. During slow cooling from a peak temperature of approximately 800 °C, chemical compositions of plagioclase and K‐feldspar seem to have been modified: Ab and Or contents changed during cooling, but An did not. This compositional modification is reproduced by a numerical simulation that modeled the cooling process of a 50 km sized Itokawa parent asteroid. After cooling, some particles have been heavily impacted and heated, which resulted in heterogeneous distributions of Na and K within plagioclase crystals. Impact‐induced chemical modification of plagioclase was verified by a comparison to a shock vein in the Kilabo LL6 ordinary chondrite where Na‐K distributions of plagioclase have been disturbed.