A comparative study of numerical approaches to risk assessment of contaminant transport

In risk analysis, a complete characterization of the concentration distribution is necessary to determine the probability of exceeding a threshold value. The most popular method for predicting concentration distribution is Monte Carlo simulation, which samples the cumulative distribution function with a large number of repeated operations. In this paper, we first review three most commonly used Monte Carlo (MC) techniques: the standard Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube sampling, and Quasi Monte Carlo. The performance of these three MC approaches is investigated. We then apply stochastic collocation method (SCM) to risk assessment. Unlike the MC simulations, the SCM does not require a large number of simulations of flow and solute equations. In particular, the sparse grid collocation method and probabilistic collocation method are employed to represent the concentration in terms of polynomials and unknown coefficients. The sparse grid collocation method takes advantage of Lagrange interpolation polynomials while the probabilistic collocation method relies on polynomials chaos expansions. In both methods, the stochastic equations are reduced to a system of decoupled equations, which can be solved with existing solvers and whose results are used to obtain the expansion coefficients. Then the cumulative distribution function is obtained by sampling the approximate polynomials. Our synthetic examples show that among the MC methods, the Quasi Monte Carlo gives the smallest variance for the predicted threshold probability due to its superior convergence property and that the stochastic collocation method is an accurate and efficient alternative to MC simulations.     

Luminescence dating of baked earth and sediments from the Qujialing archaeological site,China

The Qujialing site is a representative Neolithic archaeological site in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China. Absence of suitable material for radiocarbon dating in this region makes the timing of the similar sites difficult. Here we applied optically stimulated luminescence (OSL–SAR) and thermoluminescence (TL–SAR) techniques to date the archaeological and natural deposits from the Qujialing site with known age, testing the techniques on samples at archaeological sites in this region. The results showed that the luminescence properties of quartz from sediment and baked earth samples are very similar. The quartz OSL ages obtained for a sediment sample and a baked earth sample from the cultural layer are 5.4 ± 0.3 and 5.1 ± 0.3 ka, respectively. The quartz TL age of the baked earth sample is 5.6 ± 0.5 ka. These dates are consistent with the calibrated radiocarbon ages (4.9 ± 0.1 and 5.1 ± 0.1 ka cal BP (±1σ)) of the two charcoal samples from the cultural layer at a nearby locality, and are also in agreement with the age of Qujialing culture period. The results indicate that the OSL dating techniques can be applied to date similar archaeological sites in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China.     

Method for calibrating a theoretical model in karst springs: an example for a hydropower station in South China

A theoretical, dimensionless rainfall–runoff model was used to simulate the discharge of Wulongdong spring in western Hubei province, South China. The single parameter (time constant τ) in the model is easy to obtain by fitting the recession rate of the observed hydrographs. The model was scaled by simply matching the total annual flow volume of the model to the observed value. Annual distribution of actual evapotranspiration was embedded in the model input to calculate the accumulated deficit of soil moisture before each rain event. Hourly precipitation input data performed better than daily data, defining τ of 0.85 days and returning a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.89 and the root mean square error of 0.07. This model offers an effective way to simulate the discharge of karst springs that respond sensitively to rainfall events. The model parameters of a successful simulation can be used to estimate the recharge area and indicate the intrinsic response time of the basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contribution of climatic and technological factors to crop yield: empirical evidence from late paddy rice in Hunan Province,China

Climatic and technological factors are two remarkable aspects that are thought to contribute to crop yield change. However, the most significant factors and their contribution rate remain debatable. Selecting Hunan Province, which is one of the largest paddy rice producing regions in China as the research area, the marginal contributions of climatic and technological factors to late paddy yield change are estimated using a county-level panel data regression model with explicit consideration of technological variables during 2000–2011. The results indicate that the mean daily temperature and adoption rate of hybrid rice have significant positive impacts on late paddy rice yield. During the research period, 1 °C temperature increase will cause 7.220 t/km² increase in late paddy rice yield, and 1 % increase in the adoption rate of hybrid rice will cause 0.212 t/km² increase. Climatic factors, especially their annual variability, exhibit a stronger overall linkage to changes in late paddy rice yield in the study area compared with the technological factors. Climatic factors accounted for 67.645 and 74.585 % of the trend and variability in late paddy rice yield, respectively. The results of this study can provide valuable information for stakeholders to adjust the input on late paddy rice production and better adapt to the effect of climate change.     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events during 1951–2011 in Shandong,China and possible connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation

Analyses of the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation extremes defined by eleven extreme precipitation indices in Shandong were conducted by utilizing the methods of linear regression, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and Mann–Kendall test. The results revealed that statistically significant decreasing trends existed for almost all extreme precipitation indices except for the consecutive dry days (CDD) and simple daily intensity index. A periodicity of 10–15 years for precipitation extremes is detected by EEMD analysis. Greatest 5-day total rainfall (RX5day), very wet days (R95p) and annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) experienced decreasing trends in the region stretching from the southeast coast to the west, while the spatial distribution of the decreasing trends for other indices was more complicated. Moreover, the frequency of occurrence in precipitation extremes at Changdao station, surrounded by the sea in the northeast region, increased in contrast to surrounding stations. This may suggest a possible effect from the local marine environment on extreme precipitation. In addition, the stations with statistically significant positive trends for CDD were mainly located in mid-west Shandong and along the southeast coast, where the extreme precipitation and total rainfall were, on the contrary, characterized by decreasing trends. These results indicate that drought or severe drought events have become more frequent in those regions. Analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes indicates that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation and increasing geopotential height as well as decreasing strength of monsoonal flow in recent decades may have contributed to the variations in extreme precipitation in Shandong.     

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics changes associated with prominent ocean surface turbulent heat fluxes trends during 1958–2013

Three prominent features of ocean surface turbulent heat fluxes (THF) trends during 1958–2013 are identified based on the Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data set. The associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics changes are further investigated based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. First, the THF are enhanced over the mid-latitude expansions of the subtropical western boundary currents (WBCs). An intensified oceanic heat transport, forced by stronger near-surface zonal wind, is likely to be the cause of such THF tendency. Second, the THF are reduced over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, which is primarily caused by the decreasing near-surface wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST), associated with a local coupled ocean-atmosphere cooling mode. Finally, the THF are reduced over the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is attributed to the decreasing air-sea humidity and temperature differences as a result of the convergence of near-surface air and the divergence of ocean currents (upwelling).     

Semi-supervised least squares support vector machine algorithm: application to offshore oil reservoir

At the early stages of deep-water oil exploration and development, fewer and further apart wells are drilled than in onshore oilfields. Supervised least squares support vector machine algorithms are used to predict the reservoir parameters but the prediction accuracy is low. We combined the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) algorithm with semi-supervised learning and established a semi-supervised regression model, which we call the semi-supervised least squares support vector machine (SLSSVM) model. The iterative matrix inversion is also introduced to improve the training ability and training time of the model. We use the UCI data to test the generalization of a semi-supervised and a supervised LSSVM models. The test results suggest that the generalization performance of the LSSVM model greatly improves and with decreasing training samples the generalization performance is better. Moreover, for small-sample models, the SLSSVM method has higher precision than the semi-supervised K-nearest neighbor (SKNN) method. The new semisupervised LSSVM algorithm was used to predict the distribution of porosity and sandstone in the Jingzhou study area.     

Experiment study on RC frame retrofitted by the external structure

A new retrofitting method is proposed herein for reinforced concrete (RC) structures through attachment of an external structure. The external structure consists of a fiber concrete encased steel frame, connection slab and transverse beams. The external structure is connected to the existing structure through a connection slab and transverse beams. Pseudostatic experiments were carried out on one unretrofitted specimen and three retrofitted frame specimens. The characteristics, including failure mode, crack pattern, hysteresis loops behavior, relationship of strain and displacement of the concrete slab, are demonstrated. The results show that the load carrying capacity is obviously increased, and the extension length of the slab and the number of columns within the external frame are important influence factors on the working performance of the existing structure. In addition, the displacement difference between the existing structure and the outer structure was caused mainly by three factors: shear deformation of the slab, extraction of transverse beams, and drift of the conjunction part between the slab and the existing frame. Furthermore, the total deformation determined by the first two factors accounted for approximately 80% of the damage, therefore these factors should be carefully considered in engineering practice to enhance the effects of this new retrofitting method.     

Review of snow water equivalent microwave remote sensing

Accurate quantitative global scale snow water equivalent information is crucial for meteorology, hydrology, water cycle and global change studies, and is of great importance for snow melt-runoff forecast, water resources management and flood control. With land surface process model and snow process model, the snow water equivalent can be simulated with certain accuracy, with the forcing data as input. However, the snow water equivalent simulated using the snow process models has large uncertainties spatially and temporally, and it may be far from the needs of practical applications. Thus, the large scale snow water equivalent information is mainly from remote sensing. Beginning with the launch of Nimbus-7 satellite, the research on microwave snow water equivalent remote sensing has developed for more than 30 years, researchers have made progress in many aspects, including the electromagnetic scattering and emission modeling, ground and airborne experiments, and inversion algorithms for future global high resolution snow water equivalent remote sensing program. In this paper, the research and progress in the aspects of electromagnetic scattering/emission modeling over snow covered terrain and snow water equivalent inversion algorithm will be summarized.