IMPROVED FORECASTING OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHERN CHINA THROUGH OROGRAPHIC GRAVITY WAVE DRAG PARAMETERIZATION

The parameterization of gravity wave drag induced by sub-grid scale orography(GWDO), which has been used in the regional model based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model(GRAPES_TMM), is extended to include the effect of mountain flow blocking drag(MBD). The extended scheme is evaluated against non-GWDO parameterization, including a cold air outbreak over southern China and a monthly verification in February 2012. The experiment results show that the GWDO and MBD parameterization both improves the forecasting of the cold air outbreaks over southern China, as well as alleviations of system bias of GRAPES_TMM.(1) The extended scheme alleviates the strong southerly wind and high surface temperature simulation during the cold air outbreak, especially over northern Guangxi and Guangdong(NGG) province, where local high surface temperature simulation reduces nearly 5 degree.(2) The MBD parameterization improves southerly wind simulations over NGG, as well as surface temperature forecasts improvement over Guangxi, Guizhou province and southern Yunnan-Guizhou plateau(YUP), and low level southerly wind simulation improvement over intertidal zone over south China.(3) The formation of MBD is mainly in the mountain area(Wuyi, Daba mountain, east of YUP) and coastal area. The MBD over plateau, which is mainly formed at the west of 105°E, is stronger and thicker than that over Nanling mountain.(4) The improvement of GWDO and MBD parameterization is stable in model physics. MBD parameterization demonstrates more overall improvements in the forecasts than GWDO, and the larger of the model forecast error is, the greater improvements of MBD contribute to. Overall, the extended GWDO scheme successfully improves the simulations of meteorological elements forecasting during cold air outbreaks.     

分布式地震应急救援态势标绘系统

地震现场救援要素众多,部署分散,为了统一管理救援要素,综合展示救援态势,设计一种基于B/S架构的地震应急救援态势标绘系统,采用Google Maps API v3实现前端Web GIS功能,加载谷歌地图,标绘震情灾情和救援要素信息,通过AJAX方式与服务器端进行数据交互,保存要素信息或者获取服务器端数据,系统设计聊天室功能,登录用户可以在线实时交流。本系统对使用环境要求低,支持多种移动终端,适合地震现场人员使用,实现了分布式要素标绘功能,是地震现场救援行动的有效辅助决策工具。     

Numerical failure analysis of a continuous reinforced concrete bridge under strong earthquakes using multi-scale models

Previous failure analyses of bridges typically focus on substructure failure or superstructure failure separately. However, in an actual bridge, the seismic induced substructure failure and superstructure failure may influence each other. Moreover, previous studies typically use simplified models to analyze the bridge failure; however, there are inherent defects in the calculation accuracy compared with using a detailed three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) model. Conversely, a detailed 3D FE model requires more computational costs, and a proper erosion criterion of the 3D elements is necessary. In this paper, a multi-scale FE model, including a corresponding erosion criterion, is proposed and validated that can significantly reduce computational costs with high precision by modelling a pseudo-dynamic test of an reinforced concrete (RC) pier. Numerical simulations of the seismic failures of a continuous RC bridge based on the multi-scale FE modeling method using LS-DYNA are performed. The nonlinear properties of the bridge, various connection strengths and bidirectional excitations are considered. The numerical results demonstrate that the failure of the connections will induce large pounding responses of the girders. The nonlinear deformation of the piers will aggravate the pounding damages. Furthermore, bidirectional earthquakes will induce eccentric poundings to the girders and different failure modes to the adjacent piers.     

1518年6月22日韩国首尔以西海域——南黄海大震

1518年6月22日韩国首尔以西海域——南黄海发生大震。地震波及朝鲜半岛全境,并在韩国首尔等沿海地区造成破坏,首尔的烈度为Ⅷ度,余震持续一个多月。地震还影响到中国东部地区。震级定为M7?级。此次地震可能与朝鲜半岛西缘断裂带（南黄海东缘断裂带）的活动有关。震中定于该断裂带附近（36.5°N,125.2°E）。     

甘孜-玉树断裂带晚第四纪走滑速率与滑动分解作用

滑动速率是研究断裂运动学特征、地震活动性和区域应变分配的重要参数和依据。前人关于甘孜-玉树断裂带滑动速率的研究结果存在较大差异,因此,其晚第四纪滑动速率有待进一步调查研究。本文基于卫星影像解译和野外实地考察,对甘孜-玉树断裂带西段（玉树断裂）上典型断错地貌点进行测量分析,得到玉树断裂晚第四纪走滑速率为6.6±0.1-7.4±1.2mm/a。通过与前人对甘孜-玉树断裂带东段（甘孜断裂）滑动速率的研究结果进行对比,发现甘孜-玉树断裂带东、西段滑动速率不一致,其原因是甘孜断裂的左旋滑移在向西传递的过程中,一部分应变被分配到了巴塘盆地南缘断裂上。巴塘盆地南缘断裂的存在很好地解释了玉树断裂的走滑速率比甘孜断裂偏低的原因。但是,从区域变形来看,巴塘盆地南缘断裂分配的滑动速率恰好说明了甘孜-玉树断裂带东、西段及鲜水河断裂带的水平构造变形是协调一致的。     

Spatiotemporal variations of deep-sea sediment components and their fluxes since the last glaciation in the northern South China Sea

Sediment components and their fluxes of Cores MD12-3428(water depth: 903 m), MD12-3433(water depth: 2125 m),and MD12-3434(water depth: 2995 m), obtained along a transect on the continental slope of the northern South China Sea, have been conducted to reveal the spatiotemporal variations and the controlling factors of the sediment components and of their fluxes.Results show that deep-sea sediments in the northern South China Sea are composed mainly of terrigenous(59–89%) and carbonate(6–38%) particles, with minor components of opal(1.6–9.4%) and organic matter(0.7–1.9%). Fluxes of terrigenous and carbonate particles reach up to 2.4–21.8 and 0.4–6.5 g cm–2 kyr–1, respectively, values that are one to two orders of magnitude higher than the fluxes of opal and organic matter. Temporal variations of the percentages and fluxes of deep-sea sediment components have displayed clear glacial-interglacial cyclicity since the last glaciation. Terrigenous, opal, and organic matter percentages and their fluxes increas clearly during marine isotope stage 2, while carbonate percentages and fluxes show an opposite variation pattern or are characterized by an unremarkable increase. This implies that deep-sea carbonate in the South China Sea is affected by the dilution of terrigenous inputs during the sea-level lowstand. With increasing water depth along the transect, the terrigenous percentage increases but with largely decreased fluxes. Both the percentage and flux of carbonate decrease, while the percentages and fluxes of opal and organic matter display much more complicated variational features. The spatiotemporal variations of deep-sea sediment components and of their fluxes since the last glaciation in the northern South China Sea are strongly controlled by sea-level fluctuations. Simultaneously, terrigenous supply associated with monsoonal rainfall, marine primary productivity,and the dilution effect between terrigenous and biogenic particles, also play interconnected roles in the sediment accumulation processes.     

A BRIEF REVIEW OF SEVERAL MODELS OF TOPOGRAPHIC EVOLUTION

With steady development of mathematical-physical models and computer technology, numerous methods of topographic simulation have emerged during the past decades. A major challenge in the modeling is how to accurately and efficiently describe processes of surface erosion at different spatial scales. This review focuses on the physical processes controlling surface erosion, including river erosion and hillslope erosion. Four popular models of topographic simulation (CASCADE, CHILD, FastScape and DAC models)and their applications are presented. Although these models have become more sophisticated in recent years, there are still some issues unsolved regarding the basics of the physical erosion processes. For example, some factors have not been taken into account, such as the impacts of changes in grain size and sediment budget during transportation on river erosion and the measurements of the rock erodibilities for various lithologies. Moreover, there is no topographic index that can be used to evaluate the modeling results. Therefore, it would be helpful to combine the models of topographic simulation with other numerical models, e.g. the low-temperature thermochronometric data modeling, to provide better constraints on the terrain modeling.     

Temporal and spatial variations of potential evaporation and the driving mechanism over Tibet during 1961–2001

Potential evaporation (PE) is the basic component of the global hydrological cycle and energy balance. This study detected the temporal and spatial variations of PE and related driving factors in Tibet, China, for the period 1961–2001, based on observed data recorded at 22 meteorological stations. The results showed that (1) Tibet experienced a statistically significant decrease of PE between 1961 and 2001, which started mainly in the 1980s, along with accelerated warming; (2) the mean annual PE in Tibet showed an east–west increasing trend, and the annual PE at most stations presented decreasing trends; (3) an inverse correlation of mean annual PE with elevation was detected (low–high decreasing trend), and the statistical equations to estimate PE were established based on longitude, latitude and elevation; and (4) PE in Tibet can be well expressed by related meteorological variables, with vapour pressure deficit the dominant factor in determining PE.

EDITOR Z. W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

An Analytical Method for Groundwater Inflow into a Drained Circular Tunnel

Groundwater inflow estimation is essential for the design and construction of tunnel and the assessment of the environmental impacts. Analytical solutions used in current engineering practice do not adequately account for the effect of the excavation‐induced drawdown, which leads to significant change in pore water pressure distribution and reductions of the water level beyond tunnel. Based on the numerical analysis results, this article proposes semianalytical method to predict the height of lowered water level and groundwater tunnel inflow. The tunnel problem is conceptualized as two‐dimensional flow in a plane perpendicular to the tunnel axis. The analytical formula, considering the effect of the excavation‐induced drawdown, provides a better prediction of the tunnel inflow compared to the existing analytical formulas, even for the cases with inclined groundwater level.     

A computational complexity analysis of Tienstra’s solution to equality-constrained adjustment

Tienstra’s method was developed to solve parameter adjustment with linear equality constraints, which has been otherwise often carried out by directly applying the conventional (or standard) method of Lagrange multipliers to quadratic optimization problems with a positive definite matrix. We analyze the computational complexity of the celebrated Tienstra’s method and compare it with that of the method of Lagrange multipliers. We show that Tienstra’s method is not only statistically elegant but also interestingly of significant computational advantage over the method of Lagrange multipliers to solve weighted least squares adjustment with linear equality constraints, with the saving of computational cost by a minimum of about 38% to a maximum of 100%. Tienstra’s method can be very important for large scale problems of adjustment and inversion with linear equality constraints.