基于PS-InSAR技术的武威市地面沉降时空变化特征

武威市位于甘肃省中部,是一座典型的农业城市,分布有大量农业耕地。由于土壤疏松,地面容易受到降水和地下水的影响,易发生地面沉降地质灾害对居民的生产、生活造成不利影响。本文利用2017年2月至2022年12月的Sentinel-1A数据,通过PS-InSAR技术提取了武威市的地面沉降监测数据,包括视线向形变速率和累积形变量。对形变场的时空分布特征进行了详细分析,并引入Mogi模型反演地下深部变形范围。最后,结合研究区的降水数据和GRACE重力卫星获取到由陆地水负荷引起的地表形变数据,并对研究区的沉降成因进行了初步分析。结果表明,研究区存在两个主要沉降区,其中主沉降区A的最大累积沉降量达到-290.9 mm,视线向形变速率为-52.0 mm/a;主沉降区B的沉降量达到-178.1 mm,视线向形变速率为-43.8 mm/a。地表沉降呈现周期性变化,且向东南方向逐步扩展,与降水和地下水变化特征相似。通过Mogi模型反演,得出了主沉降区的地下影响范围（半径）和深度,其中主沉降区A为40.96 m和133.67 m,主沉降区B为38.60 m和140.78 m。按季节划分统计形变数据,结果表明,由于研究区所属干旱区,自然降水无法对地面沉降产生显著影响,而农耕时大量地下水的抽取才是导致区域地面沉降的主要原因。

     

Structural analysis and interpretation of the surface deformation associated with the Ning’er, Yunnan Province, China M S6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007

The seismogenic fault and the dynamic mechanism of the Ning’er, Yunnan Province MS6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007 are studied on the basis of the observation data of the surface fissures, sand blow and water eruption, land-slide and collapse associated with the earthquake, incorporating with the data of geologic structures, focal mecha-nism solutions and aftershock distribution for the earthquake area. The observation of the surface fissures reveals that the Banhai segment of the NW-trending Ning’er fault is dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NNE-trending fault is dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. The seismo-geologic hazards are concentrated mainly within a 330°-extending zone of 13.5 km in length and 4 km in width. The major axis of the isoseismal is also oriented in 330° direction, and the major axis of the seismic intensity VIII area is 13.5 km long. The focal mechanism solutions indicate that the NW-trending nodal plane of the Ning’er MS6.4 earthquake is dominated by right-lateral slip, while the NE-trending nodal plane is dominated by left-lateral slip. The preferred distribution orientation of the aftershocks of MS≥2 is 330°, and the focal depths are within the range of 3~12 km, predominantly within 3~10 km. The distribution of the aftershocks is consistent with the distribution zone of the seismo-geologic hazards. All the above-mentioned data indicate that the Banhai segment of the Ning’er fault is the seismogenic fault of this earthquake. Moreover, the driving force of the Ning’er earthquake is discussed in the light of the active block theory. It is believed that the northward pushing of the Indian plate has caused the eastward slipping of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which has been transformed into the southeastern-southernward squeezing of the southwest Yunnan region. As a result, the NW-trending faults in the vicinity of the Ning’er area are dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NE-trending faults are dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. This tectonic     

南北带强震年度预测能力估计

对中国地震局原分析预报中心测震学科1988～1999年度划定的南北地震带强震(M≥7)危险区进行了回顾和分析。 结果表明, 从过程角度研究前兆地震活动图像及其演变是年度和中短期强震预测的有效途径, 这为南北地震带强震震情跟踪提供了条件。     

利用宽频带数字地震记录测定谱震级

谱震级是表征地震强弱的量度,是地震学研究中的一个重要的地震参数。在地震预测和工程地震研究中具有重要的实际意义。谱震级测定还可得到地震辐射的能量,再通过和标量地震矩的比较,可以估计地震震源处的视应力,而视应力也是震源物理研究中一个重要的物理量。考虑到我国地震台网分布不均匀的情况,本文尝试利用单台的宽频带波形资料进行谱震级的测定。选用CDSN昆明地震台(KMI)记录的近震宽频带波形资料,分析地震图垂直分量上的P波,采用 Duda等人提出的谱震级的测定方法,改进并提出了一种能够利用宽频带波形资料,直接用速度谱值测定地震谱震级的方法。所得谱震级结果与ISC给出的Ms震级对比后,发现相差不大;所得的能量结果与NEIC用远震体波测得的能量结果具有较好的一致性。用同样的方法,将来还可对不同地区更小的地震进行谱震级的测定,这无疑对地震学的进一步研究很有帮助。     

时变重力场球面模型反演算法和模拟实验

时变重力场是研究地球内部介质物性变化的重要手段。本文提出了一种适用于地面流动重力测量获得的时变重力信号的场源反演方法,该方法采用球坐标系下的六面体单元来模拟场源介质,适合大尺度地震流动重力测量数据的等效源模型构建。通过引入重力时变信号的一阶光滑先验条件,压制了时变重力信号中的短周期高频分量,可用于提取与地震孕育相关的长周期信号。通过理论和模型实验证明了本文算法的可靠性和稳定性,并使用南北地震带南段2014—2017年的流动重力实测数据进行了反演解释,获得了地壳内部等效场源的视密度时变信号,变化量级在正常地壳密度的±0.7‰之间,其空间形态受川滇菱形块体边界控制。研究成果可用于时变重力场模型解释和深部场源特征提取,可为地震重力前兆信号分析和相关研究提供完备的方法保障。     

剪切波分裂分析系统SAM(2007)——软件系统

地震各向异性是一种普遍现象,利用剪切波分裂可以研究地壳介质的地震各向异性特性,这是地震学研究中的一个前沿课题。本文介绍了基于SAM(2003R)发展的剪切波分裂系统分析方法软件——SAM(2007)。SAM(2007)在保留原软件系统优点的基础上,修改和发展了新的功能,在资料预处理、数据分析和结果输出等方面都进行了更新或发展,增加了地震定位模块,使新的软件系统更适用于国内的区域地震台网或流动台网资料的处理和分析。     

唐山地震前兆场的分布特征

本文对唐山地震昌黎等七个台的地电阻率日均值时间序列进行了关联维计算．取每年为一个时间段，其目的在于探索分数维对地震各个阶段的反应，以便达到利用分数维进行地震预报的目的。计算结果表明大部分地电台的地电阻率在地震前有明显的降维特征。通过地震前后七个台的地电阻率分数维的变化，得到了地震前后前兆场的分布特征，这一结果对于未来震源区的判定有重要意义。     

陇南山区斜坡重力地质作用特征研究

位于地质构造、地层、地貌、气侯和植被五位一体叠加脆弱带的陇南地区是我国主要滑坡、泥石流、崩塌等斜坡重力地质作用区之一。本文简述了斜坡重力地质作用的概念和类型，着重分析了其垂直分带性、区域性、季节性、周期性、阶段性、继承性和共生性等作用特征，揭示了斜坡重力地质作用的活动规律。     

阶段递进地震预报思路及其应用

首先提供了１９９８年１０月云南宁蒗５．３级地震前所确认的孕震过程和主要前兆异常,以此为例阐述阶段递进的预报思路;这一项预报思路首先根据历史震例中区域应力场的活动轨迹,跟踪其当前加载区域和活动构造,以被加载区域预释放大于２倍均方差及３．０～４．９级地震时空丛集图象认孕震区的存在;以此孕震区为载体思考近源区各种前兆异常的内在相关性,利用发震概率计算模型和各种短临预报指标对发震概率Ｐ进行具体计算,以Ｐ≥     

Failure time variation derived from R–S relation: the role of the static stress perturbation

In general, earthquake cycle related to earthquake faulting could include four major processes which could be described by (1) fault locking, (2) self-acceleration or nucleation (possible foreshocks), (3) coseismic slip, and (4) post-stress relaxation and afterslip. A sudden static stress change/perturbation in the surrounding crust can advance/delay the fault instability or failure time and modify earthquake rates. Based on a simple one-dimensional spring-slider block model with the combination of rate-and-state-dependent friction relation, in this study, we have approximately derived the simple analytical solutions of clock advance/delay of fault failures caused by a sudden static Coulomb stress change applied in the different temporal evolution periods during an earthquake faulting. The results have been used in the physics-based explanation of delayed characteristic earthquake in Parkfield region, California, in which the next characteristic earthquake of M 6.0 after 1966 occurred in 2004 instead of around 1988 according to its characteristic return period of 22 years. At the same time, the analytical solutions also indicate that the time advance/delay in Coulomb stress change derived by the dislocation model has a certain limitation and fundamental flaw. Furthermore, we discussed the essential difference between rate- and state-variable constitutive (R–S) model and Coulomb stress model used commonly in current earthquake triggering study, and demonstrated that, in fact, the Coulomb stress model could be involved in the R–S model. The results, we have obtained in this study, could be used in the development of time-dependent fault interaction model and the probability calculation related to the time-dependent and renewal earthquake prediction model.