A high resolution forecast model of storm surge inundation

In order to forecast storm surge inundation, a two-dimensional model is established. In the model, an alternating computation sequence method is used to solve the governing equations, and the dry and wet method is introduced to treat the moving boundary. This model is easy to use. It has a friendly input interface and Arcview GIS is used as the output interface. The model is applied to the Shantou area to simulate the storm surge elevations and inundations caused by Typhoons 6903 ane 0104 using the same relevant parameters. The calculated results agree well with the observations.     

A note on MESA and spectral analysis of the hundred-year geomagnetic data at Zo-se

Summary. In the maximum entropy spectrum analysis (MESA) of geomagnetic data, the required order can be estimated by the zero-frequency half-power width (ZHW) minimum method proposed in this paper. The spectra of the data for 1876–1975 at Zo-se showed a period of 40yr, in addition to the well-known periods. The amplitudes of the variations were estimated with parabolic-sinusoidal series fitting.     

新疆精河莱历斯高尔铜钼矿床原生地球化学异常

矿区处于博罗霍洛山主脊,属斑岩型铜钼矿床。斑岩体本身为矿体,钼矿在岩体内,铜矿在外接触带。通过矿区北部勘查地球化学工作表明,Mo、Cu、Pb、Ag、As原生地球化学异常规模大、连续性好,形态规则,梯度大。As、Sb、Ag具前缘特征。除Mo、Cu外,Pb、Ag具主成矿元素特征。原生异常纵向分带具轴向分带特征,分带序列有一定的典型意义。从地质、地球化学异常特征、小岩体地球化学特征以及金属预测资源初步计算认为该矿床很有远景。     

Palynological record during the Pleistocene (between 1.05 Ma and 0.36 Ma) from ODP1144, northern South China Sea

This paper presents the pollen record from the lower section of ODP1144 (depth 501.3-225.7 m, ca. 1.05-0.36 Ma). Two pollen zones (PA and PB) and eleven pollen subzones are recognized. Within zone PB, the 11 pollen subzones (PB21-11) are defined according to the pine, fern and herb variations, and are equivalent to the marine isotope stages 21-11 (MISs 21-11). The interglacial periods are typified by an increase in pine pollen and fern spores, and a decrease in herbaceous pollen, while the patterning during the glacial periods is just the opposite. During the interglacial periods, pollen assemblages were dominated by pine similar to those of the present day, suggesting that the paleoenvironment of the interglacial periods was similar to that of the present day, whereas the glacial periods are marked by an increase in herbaceous pollen, mainly Gramineae and Cyperaceae, indicating that grassland covered the exposed continental shelf when sea level declined. Increased Artemisia percentages and the highest     

建筑结构抗震研究若干基本问题概述及讨论

本文介绍和讨论了结构抗震研究中的一些基本问题,包括地震反应分析选择地面运动输入应注意的问题,高层结构地震模拟试验问题和结构地震反应分析中的主要分析方法和存在的问题,最后简要介绍了目前常用结构反应分析程序。     

Observations and modelling of the travel time delay and leading negative phase of the 16 September 2015 Illapel,Chile tsunami

The systematic discrepancies in both tsunami arrival time and leading negative phase (LNP) were identified for the recent transoceanic tsunami on 16 September 2015 in Illapel, Chile by examining the wave characteristics from the tsunami records at 21 Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) sites and 29 coastal tide gauge stations. The results revealed systematic travel time delay of as much as 22 min (approximately 1.7％ of the total travel time) relative to the simulated long waves from the 2015 Chilean tsunami. The delay discrepancy was found to increase with travel time. It was difficult to identify the LNP from the near-shore observation system due to the strong background noise, but the initial negative phase feature became more obvious as the tsunami propagated away from the source area in the deep ocean. We determined that the LNP for the Chilean tsunami had an average duration of 33 min, which was close to the dominant period of the tsunami source. Most of the amplitude ratios to the first elevation phase were approximately 40％, with the largest equivalent to the first positive phase amplitude. We performed numerical analyses by applying the corrected long wave model, which accounted for the effects of seawater density stratification due to compressibility, self-attraction and loading (SAL) of the earth, and wave dispersion compared with observed tsunami waveforms. We attempted to accurately calculate the arrival time and LNP, and to understand how much of a role the physical mechanism played in the discrepancies for the moderate transoceanic tsunami event. The mainly focus of the study is to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of each secondary physical effect to the systematic discrepancies using the corrected shallow water model. Taking all of these effects into consideration, our results demonstrated good agreement between the observed and simulated waveforms. We can conclude that the corrected shallow water model can reduce the tsunami propagation speed and reproduce the LNP, which is observed for tsunamis that have propagated over long distances frequently. The travel time delay between the observed and corrected simulated waveforms is reduced to <8 min and the amplitude discrepancy between them was also markedly diminished. The incorporated effects amounted to approximately 78％ of the travel time delay correction, with seawater density stratification, SAL, and Boussinesq dispersion contributing approximately 39％, 21％, and 18％, respectively. The simulated results showed that the elastic loading and Boussinesq dispersion not only affected travel time but also changed the simulated waveforms for this event. In contrast, the seawater stratification only reduced the tsunami speed, whereas the earth's elasticity loading was responsible for LNP due to the depression of the seafloor surrounding additional tsunami loading at far-field stations. This study revealed that the traditional shallow water model has inherent defects in estimating tsunami arrival, and the leading negative phase of a tsunami is a typical recognizable feature of a moderately strong transoceanic tsunami. These results also support previous theory and can help to explain the observed discrepancies.     

临沂市地质灾害预警预报与指挥系统的设计与实现

本文结合国内外有关地质灾害预警预报的相关理论研究,论述了临沂市地质灾害预警预报与指挥系统的总体框架和功能设计,介绍了本系统的预警预报、应急指挥、态势标绘等功能。系统旨在逐步提高临沂市的地质灾害预警预报技术水平,为各级政府制定国民发展计划和城镇规划提供重要的科学依据,为减灾防灾提供技术支撑。     

中国海岛县(区)旅游业转型发展问题研究

我国海岛县(区)旅游业起步较晚,发展迅速,众多海岛已成为知名的区域性旅游目的地,但总体仍处于粗放的资源驱动型发展阶段,产业综合素质较低,持续发展能力不足,迫切需要转型升级。旅游业转型发展要立足于海岛县(区)地域经济体、自然综合体和社会综合体的特殊属性,倡导生态旅游,发挥地方政府的宏观主导作用,落实战略性主导产业定位,以生态环境的承载力为基础,动员和整合各方面的资源,构建系统经济发展模式,发挥旅游业在增强经济活力、保护资源环境、促进社会进步等方面的作用,使之成为海岛县(区)可持续发展的重要支撑力量。     

天津市构建低碳城市的策略研究——基于碳排放的情景分析

低碳城市是在改造和适应全球气候的基础上提出的未来城市发展模板。城市的碳排放值是衡量低碳城市的主要指标。从社会经济、能源和环境3个角度分析了天津市现状,并在此基础上进行情景分析,估算不同情景下天津市2010—2050年的碳排放量。主要结论有:(1)天津市近10年能源消费量和碳排放量均呈现出持续上涨的趋势;(2)从产业结构来看,第二产业所产生的碳排放是天津市碳排放的主体,而一次能源中,煤炭所形成的碳排放占据了首位;(3)天津市在节能情景下即可完成我国2020年的减排承诺,在低碳情景下,天津市可以承担更多的减排责任;(4)按低碳模式发展,天津市将在2020—2035年间达到碳排放的高峰。基于这些结论,提出天津市构建低碳城市的策略,这些策略也同样适用于处于城市化后期的其他中国城市。