陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区农户气候变化的适应行为及影响因素分析

从农户个体微观视角,研究农业的活动主体--农户的气候变化适应行为。选择陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区,采用问卷调查和半结构式访谈相结合的方法研究农户气候变化感知与适应行为,运用二元逻辑回归模型分析影响该地区农户适应行为的因素。结果表明：农户对气候变化趋势感知比较一致,认为近5 年夏季和冬季气温升高,降水减少,但与实际观测存在一定偏差。农户应对气候变化采取适应行为的比重并不高,只有57.8% 的农户表示采取了相应的措施来应对气候变化。农户适应行为受气候变化感知的影响,此外,家庭社会经济属性对农户采取适应行为的概率影响显著,而性别、年龄、文化程度等人口属性因素与农户采取适应行为的概率关系不大。     

Early Cretaceous porphyry copper mineralization in Northeast China: the Changfagou example

The Changfagou Cu deposit is a newly discovered porphyry deposit located in the southern Jilin Province of Northeastern China, on the northeastern margin of the North China Craton. To better understand the formation of the Cu deposit, we report the zircon U–Pb and molybdenite Re–Os dating, and Sr-, Nd-, and Hf- isotopic data of the granite porphyry. LA-ICP-MS dating of zircon grains from two mineral zones in the granite porphyry yield ages of 115.7 ± 0.8 and 115.3 ± 0.6 Ma, which is interpreted as the emplacement age of the granite porphyry. The molybdenite Re–Os model ages of 112.5 to 113.8 Ma, an isochron age of 113.3 ± 1.3 Ma, and a weighted mean model age of 113.0 ± 0.7 Ma, which represents the age of the Cu mineralization quite well. The Changfagou granite porphyry samples lack amphibole and muscovite, and are compositionally characterized by high SiO₂, high Na₂O+K₂O, and low P₂O₅, enriched in some Rb, Th, U, and Pb, and depleted in Nb, Ta, Ti, P, and Eu. Mineralogical and geochemical features suggest that the Changfagou granite porphyry samples are slightly peraluminous and are of highly fractionated I-type granitoids. The granitic rocks also have relatively high (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i (0.71199 to 0. 71422), and both low εNd(t) (?14.56 to ?13.19) and εHf(t) values (?14.916 to ?8.644), which suggest that Changfagou granite porphyry are derived from mixed sources of crustal and mantle, and diagenesis and mineralization were possibly related to the switch in subduction direction of the Palaeo-Pacific Plate in the late phase of Early Cretaceous.     

Detecting hotspots of urban residents’ behaviours based on spatio-temporal clustering techniques

Hotspots are regions where the number of spatial objects is obviously high within the time intervals. As the behaviours of urban residents are considered as a typical kind of spatio-temporal pattern, the detection of hotspots of urban residents’ behaviours appears necessary, since important information might be discovered in hotspots. In this paper, we propose an approach to detect the spatio-temporal hotspots of urban residents’ behaviours. This approach is validated based on the GPS data of floating cars of a city in southern China. The approach consists of four main steps: first, the effective spatio-temporal trajectories and the important characteristic points contained in each trajectory are extracted from the GPS data; second, the spatio-temporal clusters are generated by clustering the characteristic points based on a kernel density estimation algorithm; third, the spatio-temporal hotspots are detected by filtering the spatio-temporal clusters with high densities; last, the detected hotspots are analysed and interpreted. The results show that the proposed approach is effective and useful in detecting hotspots of urban residents’ behaviours.     

The contingency of medicare physician spending on population densities and sizes

The exploration of the spatial association between Medicare physician spending and population densities and sizes could possibly facilitate the investigation of the causal mechanisms beneath the variation in medical care. We acquired the U.S. Medicare physician expenditures and regional demographic and geographic data in 2006 from the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care. Six geographic units—states, counties, Hospital Referral Regions, Hospital Service Areas, Metropolitan Statistical Areas, and state non-Metropolitan Statistical Areas—were used as units of study. Pearson correlation analysis, multivariable regression, and partial correlation analysis were employed. Among six geographic units, Pearson correlation coefficients between Medicare physician expenditures and logarithmic population densities ranged from 0.42 to 0.63 (p < 0.05 for all), and between the expenditures and logarithmic population sizes from 0.31 to 0.65 (p < 0.05 for all). When population health, differential demand, market structure, and data reporting bias were controlled, population densities and sizes were positively associated with Medicare physician expenditures in most models. Population densities and sizes could explain considerable amounts of regional variation in Medicare physician spending. We concluded that Medicare physician spending was contingent on population densities and sizes. Because population densities and sizes are produced by more fundamental qualities such as natural environments and resources and thus are not easily manipulated, they are suggestive in health policy studies. Further research might investigate population distribution associated properties such as geographic distribution of health care resources, spatial dynamics of medical technology distribution, and cultural and psychological factors.     

Experimental research on the effect of slope morphology on bank collapse in mountain reservoir

Farmers along the Amazon River each year face multiple natural hazards that threaten crop production and limit the potential for agricultural development of the expansive floodplain and active channel. In this paper we report the findings of a study of natural hazard-related risk associated with rice production on silt bars in the active channel of the Amazon River near Iquitos, Peru. Data were gathered in four rice producing communities in 2014 using household surveys (n = 83 households), focus group discussions, surveying of land elevations along the Amazon River, and interpretation of remote sensing imagery. The probability, extent, and severity of rice crop shortfalls were estimated for recent production years and the economic losses to farming households were also assessed. Our findings point to a very high risk of crop shortfalls due to natural hazards, suggesting that a good year brings rice farmers bounty and a bad year, near penury. River stage reversals (repiquetes) and edaphic conditions were found to be more problematic than the often cited hazard of high and/or early floods. Also surprisingly, farmers’ perceptions of hazards and risk diverged markedly from actual shortfalls experienced during the production years studied. Our results provide the first quantitative estimates of risk due to the multiple natural hazards along the Amazon River and point to the need to assist lowland farmers with risk mitigation so as to unlock the considerable potential of Amazon floodlands for agricultural production.     

Modeling coastal tsunami hazard from submarine mass failures: effect of slide rheology,experimental validation,and case studies off the US East Coast

Natural Hazards - We perform numerical simulations to assess how coastal tsunami hazard from submarine mass failures (SMFs) is affected by slide kinematics and rheology. Two types of two-layer SMF...     

磨刀门河口洪季波生流及其泄洪影响

磨刀门已由"径流型"向"径流-波浪型"河口转变,波浪已是该河口主要动力之一,但波浪对河口洪季水流及泄洪的影响缺少研究。在2-D潮流数学模型中添加随潮位实时变化的波浪辐射应力,建立波浪潮流耦合数学模型;波浪求解采用缓坡方程,背景水深由潮流模型实时提供,可通过比较考虑和未考虑波浪影响的河口流场来分析波浪对泄洪的影响。在年均常浪作用下,磨刀门河口洪季涨落潮阶段均有明显的波生环流结构。由于波浪作用方向向陆,波生流减弱了浅滩区的向海余流,增大了浅滩向陆余流;受浅滩向海余流减弱影响,河口动力自调整后形成归槽水流,促使深槽内向海余流增大。波浪有顶托河口泄洪之势,可改变滩槽泄洪分配比例;年均常浪的波高较小,其对潮流及泄洪的影响区域限制在浅水区,故对泄洪的负面影响有限。     

稳健总体最小二乘Helmert方差分量估计

对于总体最小二乘而言,经常需要处理不同精度或者不同类型的观测数据,根据先验方差来定权往往不准确,同时观测数据中可能含有粗差。针对这两个问题,提出稳健总体最小二乘Helmert方差分量估计,将稳健估计和Helmert方差分量估计同时应用于总体最小二乘中。最后通过两个实验的计算结果表明,该方法是可行的、有效的。     

Sources of uncertainty in exploring rangeland phenology: A case study in an alpine meadow on the central Tibetan Plateau

Global climate change has been found to substantially influence the phenology of rangeland, especially on the Tibetan Plateau. However, there is considerable controversy about the trends and causes of rangeland phenology owing to different phenological exploration methods and lack of ground validation. Little is known about the uncertainty in the exploration accuracy of vegetation phenology. Therefore, in this study, we selected a typical alpine rangeland near Damxung national meteorological station as a case study on central Tibetan Plateau, and identified several important sources influencing phenology to better understand their effects on phenological exploration. We found man-made land use was not easily distinguished from natural rangelands, and therefore this may confound phenological response to climate change in the rangeland. Change trends of phenology explored by four methods were similar, but ratio threshold method (RTM) was more suitable for exploring vegetation phenology in terms of the beginning of growing season (BGS) and end of growing season (EGS). However, some adjustments are needed when RTM is used in extreme drought years. MODIS NDVI/EVI dataset was most suitable for exploring vegetation phenology of BGS and EGS. The discrimination capacities of vegetation phenology declined with decreasing resolution of remote sensing images from MODIS to GIMMS AVHRR datasets. Additionally, distinct trends of phenological change rates were indicated in different terrain conditions, with advance of growing season in high altitudes but delay of season in lower altitudes. Therefore, it was necessary to eliminate interference of complex terrain and man-made land use to ensure the representativeness of natural vegetation. Moreover, selecting the appropriate method to explore rangelands and fully considering the impact of topography are important to accurately analyze the effects of climate change on vegetation phenology.     

Influence of white spot syndrome virus infection on hepatopancreas gene expression of ‘Huanghai No. 2’ shrimp (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Fenneropenaeus chinensis</Emphasis>)

To elucidate the molecular response of shrimp hepatopancreas to white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) infection, microarray was applied to investigate the differentially expressed genes in the hepatopancreas of ‘Huanghai No. 2’ (Fenneropenaeus chinensis). A total of 59137 unigenes were designed onto a custom-made 60K Agilent chip. After infection, the gene expression profiles in the hepatopancreas of the shrimp with a lower viral load at early (48–96 h), peak (168–192 h) and late (264–288 h) infection phases were analyzed. Of 18704 differentially expressed genes, 6412 were annotated. In total, 5453 differentially expressed genes (1916 annotated) expressed at all three phases, and most of the annotated were either up- or down-regulated continuously. These genes function diversely in, for example, immune response, cytoskeletal system, signal transduction, stress resistance, protein synthesis and processing, metabolism among others. Some of the immune-related genes, including antilipopolysaccharide factor, Kazal-type proteinase inhibitor, C-type lectin and serine protease encoding genes, were up-regulated after WSSV infection. These genes have been reported to be involved in the anti-WSSV responses. The expression of genes related to the cytoskeletal system, including β-actin and myosin but without tubulin genes, were down-regulated after WSSV infection. Astakine was found for the first time in the WSSV-infected F. chinensis. To further confirm the expression of differentially expressed genes, quantitative real-time PCR was performed to test the expression of eight randomly selected genes and verified the reliability and accuracy of the microarray expression analysis. The data will provide valuable information to understanding the immune mechanism of shrimp’s response to WSSV.