A New Integrated Weighted Model in SNOW-V10: Verification of Continuous Variables

This paper presents the verification results of nowcasts of four continuous variables generated from an integrated weighted model and underlying Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Real-time monitoring of fast changing weather conditions and the provision of short term forecasts, or nowcasts, in complex terrain within coastal regions is challenging to do with sufficient accuracy. A recently developed weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system was used in the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 project to generate integrated weighted forecasts (INTW) out to 6 h. INTW forecasts were generated with in situ observation data and background gridded forecasting data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing configurations. In this paper, the four variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind gust are treated as continuous variables for verifying the INTW forecasts. Fifteen sites were selected for the comparison of the model performances. The results of the study show that integrating surface observation data with the NWP forecasts produce better statistical scores than using either the NWP forecasts or an objective analysis of observed data alone. Overall, integrated observation and NWP forecasts improved forecast accuracy for the four continuous variables. The mean absolute errors from the INTW forecasts for the entire test period (12 February to 21 March 2010) are smaller than those from NWP forecasts with three configurations. The INTW is the best and most consistent performer among all models regardless of location and variable analyzed.     

Numerical study of circulation and temperature-salinity distributions in the Bras d’Or Lakes

The Bras d’Or Lakes (BdOL) are a large, complex and virtually land-locked estuary in central Cape Breton Island of Nova Scotia and one of Canada’s charismatic ecosystems, sustaining ecological and cultural communities unique in many aspects. The BdOL comprise two major basins, many deep and shallow bays, several narrow channels and straits and a large, geologically complex watershed. Predictive knowledge of the water movement within the estuary is a key requirement for effective management and sustainable development of the BdOL ecosystem. A three-dimensional (3D) primitive-equation ocean circulation model is used to examine the estuary’s response to tides, winds and buoyancy forcing associated with freshwater runoff in a series of numerical experiments validated with empirical data. The model results generate intense, jet-like tidal flows of about 1 m s^?1 in the channels between the basins and connecting them to the ocean and relatively weak tidal currents in other regions, which agrees well with previous observations and numerical results. Wind forcing and buoyancy forcing associated with river runoff play important roles in generating the significant sub-tidal circulations in the estuary, including narrow channels, deep basins and shallow bays. The circulation model is also used to reconstruct the 3D circulation and temperature-salinity distributions in the summer months of 1974, when current and hydrographic measurements were made at several locations. The sub-tidal circulation in the estuary produced by the model is characterised by wind and barometric set-up and set-down in different sections of the system, and a classic two-layer estuarine circulation in which brackish, near-surface waters flow seaward from the estuary into the Atlantic Ocean, and deep salty waters flow landward through the major channel. The model results reproduce reasonably well the overall features of observed circulation and temperature-salinity fields made in the BdOL in 1974 but generally underestimate the observed currents and density stratification. The model discrepancies reflect the use of spatially mean wind forcing and spatially and monthly mean surface heat flux and the inability of the coarse model horizontal resolution (～500 m) to resolve narrow channels and straits.     

Variation of phytoplankton biomass and primary production in Daya Bay during spring and summer

Environmental factors, phytoplankton biomass (Chl a) and primary production of two water areas in Daya Bay (Dapeng'ao Bay and Aotou Bay) were investigated during the transition period from spring to summer. Chl a ranged from 3.20 to 13.62 and 13.43 to 26.49 mg m(-3) in Dapeng'ao Bay and Aotou Bay respectively, if data obtained during red tides are excluded. Primary production varied between 239.7 and 1001.4 mg Cm(-2) d(-1) in Dapeng'ao Bay. The regional distribution of Chl a and primary production were mostly consistent from spring to summer in both bays. Seasonal transition characters have been found in Daya Bay from spring to summer, including high values of DO, nitrate and silicate. Size structures of phytoplankton and its primary production do not change very much from spring to summer, with micro-phytoplankton dominating and contributing about 50% of the whole. In Daya Bay, phytoplankton is limited by nitrogen in spring, and by phosphate in summer. Artificial impacts are evident from high temperature effluent from nuclear power stations, aquaculture and sewage. During the investigation, a red tide occurred in Aotou Bay, with a maximum Chl a of 103.23 mgm(-3) at surface and primary production of 2721.9 mg Cm(-2) d(-1) in the red tide center. Raised water temperature and nutrient supply from land-sources help to stimulate annual red tides.     

不同混养模式下中华鲟养殖池透明度变化及其影响因素

中华鲟与背角无齿蚌和鲢鳙混养的池水透明度(SD)对比试验表明,1#池(对照)、2#池(挂养背角无齿蚌)、3#池(混养鲢鳙)透明度平均值分别为11.92、16.45、17.45 cm,分别较试验本底值依次提高26.69%、56.67%、66.19%.2#、3#池的透明度显著大于1#池,最高可达1倍.3个池透明度与各水质指标关系的Panel Data模型分别为:SD1=-0.0072 TSS+0.8353 NH 4+-N-2.1711 TN+0.6195 TP-0.0405 COD+16.7815,SD2=0.0030 TSS+3.8864 NH 4+-N+0.1893 TN-12.4585 TP***-0.0104 COD+24.5306,SD3=0.0381 TSS*+3.7821 NH 4+-N+0.6003 TN-15.0444TP***-0.4078 COD**+34.2992(*、**、***分别表示显著、较显著、极显著相关).TP是影响中华鲟养殖池透明度的主要指标,NH 4+-N、TN、COD是影响透明度的间接指标,而TSS是影响透明度的直接指标.在悬浮物浓度较高、水体浑浊的中华鲟养殖池水体中,鲢鳙的放养对透明度的提高效果显著优于背角无齿蚌.     

High angle prestack depth migration with absorption compensation

The absorption effect of actual subsurface media can weaken wavefield energy, decrease the dominating frequency, and further lead to reduced resolution. In migration, some actions can be taken to compensate for the absorption effect and enhance the resolution. In this paper, we derive a one-way wave equation with an attenuation term based on the timespace domain high angle one-way wave equation. A complicated geological model is then designed and synthetic shot gathers are simulated with acoustic wave equations without and with an absorbing term. The derived one-way wave equation is applied to the migration of the synthetic gathers without and with attenuation compensation for the simulated shot gathers. Three migration profiles are obtained. The first and second profiles are from the shot gathers without and with attenuation using the migration method without compensation, the third one is from the shot gathers with attenuation using the migration method with compensation. The first and third profiles are almost the same, and the second profile is different from the others below the absorptive layers. The amplitudes of the interfaces below the absorptive layers are weak because of their absorption. This method is also applied to field data. It is concluded from the migration examples that the migration method discussed in this paper is feasible.     

Spatial variation in sap flow velocity in semiarid region trees: its impact on stand‐scale transpiration estimates

In this study, we aimed to clarify spatial variations in xylem sap flow, and to determine the impacts of these variations on stand‐scale transpiration (E) estimates. We examined circumferential and radial variations in sap flow velocity (F_d) measured at several directions and depths in tree trunks of black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) and native oak (Quercus liaotungensis), both of which have ring‐porous wood anatomy, in forest stands on the Loess Plateau, China. We evaluated the impacts of circumferential variations in F_d on stand‐scale transpiration estimates using a simple scaling exercise. We found significant circumferential variations in F_d in the outermost xylem in both species (coefficients of variation = 20–45%). For both species, F_d measured at the inner xylem was smaller than that of the outermost xylem and the F_d at the depth of > 10 mm was almost zero. The simple exercises showed that omitting circumferential variations in F_d affected the E estimate by 16–21%, which was less than the effects of omitting within‐tree radial and tree‐to‐tree variations in F_d in both species. These results suggest that circumferential variations in F_d can be a minor source of error for E estimates compared with within‐tree radial and tree‐to‐tree variations in F_d, regardless of the significant circumferential variations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Formation mechanism of carbonate cemented zones adjacent to the top overpressured surface in the central Junggar Basin,NW China

Carbonate cemented zones are normally adjacent to the top overpressured surface in the central Junggar Basin,NW China.Stable carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions and petrological investigations of carbonate cements in the carbonate cemented zones indicate that:(1) carbonate cements are composed dominantly of ferrocalcite,ferroan dolomite,and ankerite;(2) carbonate cements are formed under a high temperature circumstance in the subsurface,and organic fluid migration has an important effect on the formatio...     

青藏高原地壳高导层的成因及动力学意义探讨——大地电磁探测提供的证据

大地电磁探测结果显示,青藏高原的中下地壳普遍存在大规模的高导层,其电阻率低于10 Ωm,远低于稳定构造区地壳的平均电阻率值.通过对可能形成地壳内大规模低阻异常地质原因的分析认为,青藏高原地壳中的高导层不可能是由金属矿、石墨层或者单纯的含盐水流体引起的,而很可能是由于地壳岩石的部分熔融或者是部分熔融与含盐水流体共同导致的.这些高导层的形成是与板块运动等动力学过程密切相关的.地壳内的高导层可能是印度板块和亚洲板块俯冲的电性痕迹,其成因与板块俯冲过程中由于摩擦生热导致的岩石部分熔融和脱水作用有关,也可能与岩石圈拆沉造成幔源物质上涌有关.沿高原内主要缝合带均存在东西向连续分布的大规模高导体,有可能是青藏高原下地壳物质向东逃逸的证据;其中班公—怒江缝合带可能是最重要的物质运移通道.     

地震尾波的某些特性的探讨

本文在对人工地震资料的尾波特性进行探讨的基础上,进一步以天然地震的资料为对象,讨论了尾波振幅衰减特性α的变化情况和尾波频率随时间的变化特性。天然地震的资料分两类,一是用本区(强震震源区)发生的小震资料,二是用外区(强震震源区以外)发生的中小震资料。两类地震均由同一组台站记录。通过一些天然地震震例的分析、对此,可得到以下结果: (1)对尾波散射区的考虑。(2)尾波特征参量携带强震前兆信息的可能性。(3)不同物量参量变化一致性的初步认识。(4)天然地震源,人工地震源、实验三者的尾波参量随时间变化的良好吻合。(5)品质因素相对变化趋势的简易估计。不可否认方法的局限性及各种干扰因素的存在。