华东地区M_L≥4.0地震平静预测意义分析

用统计学上的χ~2检验方法对华东地区M_L≥4.0地震平静进行了统计检验,得出在较高的置信概率下可以将平静时间T≥140天作为平静异常的判别标准。总结了华东地区自1970年以来出现的平静异常,并分析了其对应中强地震的情况。研究表明,M_L≥4.0地震平静异常是华东地区中强震前的一种普遍现象。62.5%的平静异常后发生了M_S≥4.5地震;绝大多数平静异常前存在着地震活动的增强过程,多次活动增强后连续发生了平静异常且之后发生了M_S≥5.0地震。     

A new method for the estimation of oceanic mixed-layer depth using shipboard X-band radar images

Shipboard X-band radar images acquired on 24 June 2009 are used to study nonlinear internal wave characteristics in the northeastern South China Sea. The studied images show three nonlinear internal waves in a packet. A method based on the Radon Transform technique is introduced to calculate internal wave parameters such as the direction of propagation and internal wave velocity from backscatter images. Assuming that the ocean is a two-layer finite depth system, we can derive the mixed-layer depth by applying the internal wave velocity to the mixed-layer depth formula. Results show reasonably good agreement with in-situ thermistor chain and conductivity-temperature-depth data sets.     

Quantitative Assessment of Impacts of Regional Climate and Human Activities on Saline-alkali Land Changes： A Case Study of Qian＇an County, Jilin Province

Interdecadal and interannual variations of saline-alkali land area in Qian’an County, Jilin Province, China were comprehensively analyzed in this paper by means of satellite remote sensing interpretation, field flux observations and regional climate diagnosis. The results show that on the interannual scale, the impact of climate factors accounts for 71.6% of the total variation of the saline-alkali land area, and that of human activities accounts for 28.4%. Therefore the impact of climate factors is obviously greater than that of human activities. On the interdecadal scale, the impact of climate factors on the increase of the saline-alkali land area accounts for 43.2%, and that of human activities accounts for 56.8%. The impact of human activities on the variation of saline-alkali land area is very clear on the interdecadal scale, and the negative impact of human activities on the environment should not be negligible. Besides, changes in the area of heavy saline-alkali land have some indication for development of saline-alkali land in Qian’an County.     

粘性土剪切波速不确定性的统计分析

土体剪切波速具有显著的不确定性。基于全国地震安全性评价工作实测的粘性土的大量剪切波速数据,采用2χ检验方法研究了粘性土不同埋深的剪切波速的概率分布。依据所获得的概率分布,采用相应的统计方法给出了粘性土不同埋深的剪切波速的平均值、最大值、最小值、标准差和变异系数,并给出了95%参考值下限和上限,所获得的结果可用于检验场地剪切波速测试结果的可靠性和粗略估计无实测资料场地土的剪切波速。     

The statistical and numerical study of the global distribution of coronal plasma and magnetic field near 2.5 Rs over a 10-year period

The basic characteristics of the global distribution for the corona plasma and magnetic field near 2.5 Rs are analyzed with the statistical and numerical methods for 136 Carrington Rotations (CRs) covering four different phases of solar activity. By using the observational data and the velocity distribution model in the corona, the statistical average distribution of the magnetic field, density and the coronal mass outputs are analyzed for the four different phases. Then, a numerical study of the global distribution near 2.5 Rs has been made by solving a self-consistent MHD system. Finally, the solar wind speed at 1 AU is given by mapping the speed at 2.5 Rs to that near 1 AU, and the comparison of the numerical results with the observational measurements and the simulation result of the Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model are made during more than 5 years. The numerical results indicate that the global distributions on the source surface of 2.5 Rs at different phases of solar activity could be used to predict the change of the solar wind in interplanetary space.     

Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for hydrological design or risk assessment. However, due to knowledge and data limitation, uncertainty involved in extrapolating beyond available data is huge. In this paper, different sources of uncertainty in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events are studied in a systematic way. This is done by focusing on several key uncertainty sources using three different case studies. The chosen case studies highlight a number of projects where there have been questions regarding the uncertainty in extreme rainfall/flood estimation. The results show that the uncertainty originated from the methodology is the largest and could be >40% for a return period of 200 years, while the uncertainty caused by ignoring the dependence among multiple hydrological variables seems the smallest. In the end, it is highly recommended that uncertainty in modeling extreme hydrological events be fully recognized and incorporated into a formal hydrological extreme analysis.     

A transfer pathway modeling template for radiological environmental risk assessment

As radioactive human doses are calculated through food chain and exposure pathways, it is important to take a pathway analysis to determine all pathway contributions for further radiological environmental risk assessment. A challenge of contaminant fate and environmental pathway analysis is to handle a large number of environmental components and to assign proper calculation models to linked component pairs. This paper presents a model template called transfer pathway model template (TPMT) that stores transfer models to environmental class pairs. When a site-specific calculation scenario is built, a source–receptor transfer matrix (SRTM) is defined by the scenario. Then the calculation loops through all source–receptor component pairs in SRTM and apply proper models stored in TPMT to calculate the transfer factors. TPMT can be used as the component pathway verification template and model allocation template. This structure is used in an environmental risk assessment (ERA) application called IMPACT that has been applied for a number of nuclear power plants and uranium mines in Canada.     

Storm surge simulation along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts using a multi-scale numerical model approach

The effectiveness of simulating surge inundation using the Eulerian–Lagrangian circulation (ELCIRC) model over multi-scale unstructured grids was examined in this study. The large domain model grid encompasses the western North Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea to appropriately account for remote and resonance effects during hurricane events and simplify the specification of the open boundary condition. The U.S. East and Gulf Coasts were divided into 12 overlapping basins with fine-resolution (up to 30 × 30 m) grids to model overland surge flooding. These overlapping basins have different fine-resolution grids near the coastal region, but have an identical coarse-resolution grid in the offshore region within the large model domain. Thus, the storm surge prediction can be conducted without reducing computation efficiency by executing multiple model runs with local fine-resolution grids where potential hurricane landfalls may occur. The capability of the multi-scale approach was examined by simulating storm surge caused by Hurricanes Andrew (1992) and Isabel (2003) along the South Florida coast and in the Chesapeake Bay. Comparisons between simulated and observed results suggest that multi-scale models proficiently simulated storm surges in the Biscayne Bay and the Chesapeake Bay during two hurricanes. A series of sensitivity tests demonstrated that the simulation of surge flooding was improved when LiDAR topographic data and special bottom drag coefficient values for mangrove forests were employed. The tests also showed that appropriate representation of linear hydrologic features is important for computing surge inundation in an urban area.     

东非裂谷东支South Lokichar盆地石油地质特征及成藏规律

东非裂谷东支由多个盆地组成,South Lokichar是唯一有油气发现的盆地,目前对于该盆地的石油地质特征及成藏规律仍认识不清,严重制约着东非裂谷东支下一步勘探.本文综合利用钻井、地震、岩芯、薄片以及分析化验等资料,对South Lokichar盆地的构造和地层发育特征、关键成藏条件和影响因素以及成藏规律进行详细分析...     

甘肃祁连山主动源重复探测项目建设及震源重复性分析

甘肃祁连山主动源重复探测激发源位于甘肃省张掖市祁连山西流水水库,2015年7月9日各系统开始正式运行,11月10日完成了为期40天的连续激发实验。观测资料处理结果表明,气枪震源具有良好的一致性和可重复性,整个观测系统能比较清晰地记录到震源激发的信号。祁连山主动源项目建设取得的结果可为主动源探测工作提供宝贵经验和科学借鉴,不断取得的观测数据为跟踪了解祁连山地区的深部结构时空变化提供了可能。