华东地区ML≥4.0地震平静预测意义分析

用统计学上的χ~2检验方法对华东地区M_L≥4.0地震平静进行了统计检验,得出在较高的置信概率下可以将平静时间T≥140天作为平静异常的判别标准。总结了华东地区自1970年以来出现的平静异常,并分析了其对应中强地震的情况。研究表明,M_L≥4.0地震平静异常是华东地区中强震前的一种普遍现象。62.5%的平静异常后发生了M_S≥4.5地震;绝大多数平静异常前存在着地震活动的增强过程,多次活动增强后连续发生了平静异常且之后发生了M_S≥5.0地震。     

Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake：Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxi1 Region as on Example

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a.     

Selection of sand models and identification of parameters using an enhanced genetic algorithm

Numerous constitutive models of granular soils have been developed during the last few decades. As a consequence, how to select an appropriate model with the necessary features based on conventional tests and with an easy way of identifying parameters for geotechnical applications has become a major issue. This paper aims to discuss the selection of sand models and parameters identification by using genetic algorithm. A real‐coded genetic algorithm is enhanced for the optimization with high efficiency. Models with gradually varying features (elastic‐perfectly plastic modelling, nonlinear stress–strain hardening, critical state concept and two‐surface concept) are selected from numerous sand models as examples for optimization. Conventional triaxial tests on Hostun sand are selected as the objectives in the optimization. Four key points are then discussed in turn: (i) which features are necessary to be accounted for in constitutive modelling of sand; (ii) which type of tests (drained and/or undrained) should be selected for an optimal identification of parameters; (iii) what is the minimum number of tests that should be selected for parameter identification; and (iv) what is the suitable and least strain level of objective tests to obtain reliable and reasonable parameters. Finally, a useful guide, based on all comparisons, is provided at the end of the discussion. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

南阳膨胀土抗剪强度的现场剪切试验研究

膨胀土的抗剪强度是膨胀土地区路基、边坡设计的重要依据,其参数选取一直是膨胀土研究领域的重要课题.结合南阳地区膨胀土的抗剪强度研究,对其现场剪切试验的试样制备及试验方法进行探讨,提出了膨胀土抗剪强度的修改计算公式.通过反算证明,文中的现场剪切试验方法及抗剪强度的计算公式是合理的.     

Hydrogeochemistry of karst underground waters at shallow depth in Guiyang City, Guizhou Province

The aim of this study is to shed light on the hydrogeochemical characteristics of karst underground waters at shallow depth in Guiyang City, Guizhou Province with an emphasis on the geochemistry of major elements. Guiyang City bears abundant underground waters and it is also an important representative of the karst areas throughout the world. Ca^2 and Mg^2 are the dominant cations, accounting for 81% -99.7% of the total, and HCO3^- and SO4^2- are the dominant anions. Weathering of limestones and dolostones is the most important factor controlling the hydrogeochemistry of underground waters, and weathering of sulfate and evaporite rocks is less important. Moreover, the precipitation and human activities also have a definite influence on the hydrogeoehemistry of underground waters in the region studied.     

Local Oceanic Vertical Deflection Determination with Gravity Data Along a Profile

Deflections of the vertical (DOVs) over oceans cannot be directly measured, which restricts their applications. A local covariance function of anomalous potential is put forward in this paper in conjunction with the least-squares collocation (LSC) method to compute the oceanic DOVs utilization of oceanic gravity data along a profile. The covariance functions of gravity field quantities have been derived directly as functions of x, y and z without the need to introduce coordinate transformations corresponding to along- or cross-profile components. In the proposed methodology, gravity data along a profile were used to calculate the residual gravity anomaly using the remove-compute-restore technique. The residual gravity anomaly was used to calculate the parameters of the proposed covariance function of the local anomalous gravity field, which was used in the LSC to compute the residual DOVs along the profile. The residual DOVs added model DOVs to recover the DOVs along the profile. The results of a simulation experiment prove that the proposed methodology is feasible and effective.     

基于高性能稀疏采集的低频恢复技术在胜利东风港探区的应用

地震勘探中,地震波低频成分越来越受到重视, 而常规检波器记录中的低频有效成分难以被充分识别利用。基于检波器性能分析,通过布设低频检波器估计陆用压电检波器可恢复的最低有效频率并实现低频恢复;在此基础上,设计胜利东风港探区高性能低频检波器稀疏布设方案以及低频数据恢复流程。实际数据表明：对于胜利探区三维勘探,陆用压电检波器最低有效频率能够恢复至3 Hz,成像后的叠加剖面的精度和分辨率有显著提高。     

基于进化方向遗传算法的四维变分资料同化方法

数值天气预报模式初始时刻要素场的变分同化问题是一个非线性最优化问题。利用进化方向遗传算法（EDGA）求解该最优化问题，并对理想初始场作数值模拟，结果表明模拟的效果较好。     

Mineralization time and tectonic setting of the Zhengguang Au deposit in the Duobaoshan ore field,Heilongjiang Province,NE China

The Zhengguang deposit, a representative large gold deposit in the Duobaoshan ore field in NE China, is located in the northeast of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). Ore body emplacement was structurally controlled and occurs mainly at the contact zone between the strata of Duobaoshan Formation and an Ordovician diorite stock. The diorite rocks have a close genetic relationship with Au mineralization. Re–Os isotope dating of Au-bearing pyrite yields an isochron age of 506 ± 44 Ma (MSWD = 15). Based on present and previous dating results, it can be concluded that the Zhengguang deposit formed at ~480 Ma. The mineralization time of the Zhengguang deposit is nearly identical to those of the Duobaoshan and Tongshan deposits, indicating they are all derived from the same metallogenic system. The Duobaoshan-style porphyry Cu–Mo mineralization may exist at deeper levels at Zhengguang. The geochemical characteristics of the Zhengguang dioritic rocks presented in this paper are similar to those of bajaitic high-Mg andesite, and the magmas originated from a mantle wedge metasomatized by melts from a subducting oceanic slab at an active continental margin setting. The Ordovician magmatic–metallogenic events in the Duobaoshan ore field were caused by the westward subduction of an oceanic slab located between the Xing’an and Songliao blocks. It is worth pointing out that the Zhengguang deposit is the oldest known Phanerozoic Au deposit in NE China. Further studies of this deposit will improve understanding of the regularity of ore formation and aid mineralization forecast across the Duobaoshan region.     

全球变暖对长江洪水的可能影响及其前景预测

要长江流域近150a间发生的1870、1931、1935、1954与1998年特大洪水灾害损失严重;长江洪水是我国的心腹之患.1990年以来,长江大洪水高频发生,达6次.长江洪水的发生,除湖泊蓄洪功能减弱等因素外,与全球变暖有关.20世纪90年代为近千年中全球最暖的年代,水循环加快,长江中下游夏季降水量为近120a最多的十年,高出1961-1990平均值112mm;而降雨集中和大暴雨降水事件的增加是洪水增加的主要原因.区域气候模式模拟在CO₂倍增时,长江流域温度升高2.2℃,夏季降水增加10%-20%,气溶胶的增加可能使此值降低一些.考虑气候变暖可能促进潜在蒸发增加9%-15%的假定情景,计算在降水增加10%,蒸发增加9%条件下,最大洪峰流量在大通站将会达到8.4×10⁴ m³/s左右,己超过1998年洪峰流量;汉口站7.9×10⁴ m³/s,超过有记录以来所有的洪峰流量;而在宜昌站高达6.94×10⁴ m³/s,超过自有实测记录以来的除1896年和1981年以外所有的洪峰流量.假定情景的最高值出现在降水增加20%,蒸发增加15%时,大通站流量将达到9.45×10⁴ m³/s,超过该站近百年最大值,1954年的9.26×10⁴ m³/s;宜昌站将出现7.82×10⁴ m³/s流量,超过1882年以来所有实测记录值,但比1870年据洪痕推算的10.5×10⁴ m³/s仍有逊色.未来气候若继续变暖,降水量增加将给长江洪水防御带来巨大的压力.但上述估算是粗糙的,有一定的不确定性,需在以后的研究中进一步改进.