GRAPES模式对长江流域天气预报的检验分析

GRAPES是中国新一代数值天气预报模式。使用GRAPES中尺度模式产品和常规观测资料,分析检验了2005、2006年汛期发生在长江流域的11次主要降水天气过程,得到:GRAPES模式对于长江流域的预报,无论是降水、天气形势还是物理量都有比较强的预报能力;GRAPES模式对级别较大的降水预报容易出现漏报,而不易出现空报,对于10mm以下的雨区预报比较准确,而对于大于50mm的雨区预报,尤其是大于100mm的降水中心存在较大的偏差;对于西太平洋副热带高压的预报比实际情况偏南、偏东;对于水汽通量散度的预报与实际情况比较吻合。     

Speciation and potential remobilization of heavy metals in sediments of the Taihu Lake, China

The species of Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd and Cr in sediments of the Taihu Lake, China, have been analyzed using the sequential chemical extraction method. Variations in the chemical fractions of these metals and their geographic distributions have also been studied. For all five metals, the residual fraction is highest but the exchangeable fraction is lowest among all the fractions. Compared to other metals, Cd has the highest percentage in the exchangeable fraction, and Cr is associated mainly with the residual fraction. Cu in the organic fraction and Pb in the Fe-Mn fraction are the important species, whereas the lowest percentages are found for Cd in the organic fraction, Cu in the Fe-Mn oxide fraction and Pb in the carbonate fraction. With respect to spatial differences, the total contents in the non-residual fractions of the metals in bay sediments are found to be higher than those in other sediments. The fractions of Cd, Cu and Cr showed significant variations in different regions. The fractions of Pb and Zn, however, did not show significant variations in spatial distribution, suggesting different amounts and different paths of anthropogenic input for the metals. Comparisons of the metal speciation indicated that Cd might be the most bioavailable metal, followed by Pb.     

Variations in dust event frequency over the past century reflected by ice-core and lacustrine records in north China

In this paper, we analyzed the variations of dust proxies in the Dunde, Malan and Chongce ice cores from the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Hongjiannao lacustrine sediment core from north Shaanxi Province, and found that they all showed a general decrease trend over the past century. Owing to the fact that all these ice cores and lacustrine core were retrieved from the margins and/or the leeward sides of the major areas of dust events in north China, their records could suggest that the dust event frequency in north China declined over the study period. This decrease trend might be attributed to increasing precipitation and weakening westerly. However, human activities have made the areal extent of desertification expand acceleratingly in north China. This status could make it possible that dust events would occur on a large spatial scale under the future climate change, which would be a big environmental issue we shall face.     

慢滑移及相关脉动和慢地震研究的历史和现状

观测表明,慢滑移事件通常发生在活动断裂带内,为发震层之下的短暂滑移,能够造成地表的瞬态运动。与慢滑移密切相关的慢地震能够发射出频率在一定范围内的脉动信号,但不造成灾害性事件。慢滑移和慢地震很可能是断裂带上形变能释放的基本方式,其观测有可能为人们更深入地了解断裂带的动力学过程提供基础和依据。本文重点介绍近10年来关于慢地震和慢滑移事件的研究历史和现状。目前对慢滑移引发的地表形变和慢地震发射的脉动信号特征有了深入细致的研究,开展了对慢滑移的数值模拟和慢地震定位的研究;但对慢地震和慢滑移发生的位置、两者的关系以及物理机制等方面还存在很多争论和问题。     

九江-瑞昌地震的精确定位及其发震构造初探

联合采用双差法和主事件法,对2005年11月26日发生在江西省九江县与瑞昌市交界的5.7级地震序列进行了重新定位,并在此基础上讨论了5.7级主震的震源机制解和可能的发震构造。结果显示:精定位后震源位置的估算误差在EW方向上平均为0.31km,NS方向上平均为0.40km,竖直方向上平均为0.48km,故而得到了更加精细的空间分布图像。此次地震序列在NNW-NW向呈现优势分布,震源深度主要集中在8～14km,又以10～12km最具优势。主震的震源位置大致为北纬29.69°,东经115.74°,震源深度约10.8km。结合地震序列优势分布、主震震源机制解和震区NE向、NW向断裂发育的构造背景,初步推测本次地震序列的主震可能是由瑞昌盆地内的一条NW向隐伏断层活动引发的,发震断层的性质有待于进一步研究。     

Soil organic carbon storage and soil CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux in the alpine meadow ecosystem

High-resolution sampling, measurements of organic carbon contents and ¹⁴C signatures of selected four soil profiles in the Haibei Station situated on the northeast Tibetan Plateau, and application of ¹⁴C tracing technology were conducted in an attempt to investigate the turnover times of soil organic carbon and the soil-CO₂ flux in the alpine meadow ecosystem. The results show that the organic carbon stored in the soils varies from 22.12×10⁴ kg C hm⁻² to 30.75×10⁴ kg C hm⁻² in the alpine meadow ecosystems, with an average of 26.86×10⁴ kg C hm⁻². Turnover times of organic carbon pools increase with depth from 45 a to 73 a in the surface soil horizon to hundreds of years or millennia or even longer at the deep soil horizons in the alpine meadow ecosystems. The soil-CO₂ flux ranges from 103.24 g C m⁻² a⁻¹ to 254.93 gC m⁻² a⁻¹, with an average of 191.23 g C m⁻² a⁻¹. The CO₂ efflux produced from microbial decomposition of organic matter varies from 73.3 g C m⁻² a⁻¹ to 181 g C m⁻² a⁻¹. More than 30% of total soil organic carbon resides in the active carbon pool and 72.8%281.23% of total CO₂ emitted from organic matter decomposition results from the topsoil horizon (from 0 cm to 10 cm) for the Kobresia meadow. Responding to global warming, the storage, volume of flow and fate of the soil organic carbon in the alpine meadow ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau will be changed, which needs further research. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40231015, 40471120 and 40473002) and the Guangdong Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 06300102)     

地球化学块体与大型矿集区的关系——以东天山为例

通过在东天山15万km2的战略性深穿透地球化学调查共圈出大于1000km2以上的地球化学块体18处,其中铜-铅-锌-银地球化学块体5处,铜地球化学块体3处,铜-镍地球化学块体1处,金的地球化学块体4处,铀的地球化学块体3处,铂-钯地球化学块体1处,钨地球化学块体1处。有6处地球化学块体与已知矿集区相对应,新圈定的地球化学块体12处,其中有3处发现了新的矿床。根据这些块体与矿集区的对比得出如下结论:所有的已知矿集区都位于地球化学块体的范围之内,地球化学块体为矿集区的形成提供了丰富的物质基础;有矿集区的存在一定有地球化学块体的存在,但反过来有地球化学块体的存在不一定有矿集区的存在,地球化学块体是客观存在的,而矿集区是已经发现了一系列矿床并勘探到一定程度才能称作矿集区,因此,地球化学块体内可能会存在潜在的矿集区,这为利用地球化学块体预测新的矿集区提供了依据。     

塔里木河流域冰川洪水对气候变暖的响应

In past 50 years, the air temperature fluctuation was raising trend in Tarim River Basin. The annual mean temperature has increased by 0.3℃ in the whole Tarim River Basin, and by 0.6℃ in the mountain areas. With global warming, the frequency of unstable and extreme climatic events increased, glaciers retreating accelerated and snow meltwater increased have resulted in the more frequency of snow-ice disasters such as glacier debrisflow and glacier flash flood etc. Since 1980s, in the process of intense climate warming, glaciers melting intensified, ice temperature rose and glaciers flows accelerated, and lead to more glacial lakes and extending water storage capacity and stronger glacial lake outburst floods occurrence. It is proposed that the monitoring and evaluating of the impact of climate change on water resources and floods should be enhanced.     

计算机地貌晕渲效果增强方法研究

在总结传统手工晕渲经验和方法的基础上，深入分析了计算机地貌晕渲的原理，着重研究了坡度和坡向对地貌晕渲中阴影强弱和明暗程度的影响，提出了变比例调整高程和晕渲笔调调整两种方法。实验表明，利用本文方法能有效改善地貌晕渲图的三维立体视觉效果。     

空间VLBI的研究现状

评述了过去近三十年中空间VLBI的发展．其内容包括空间VLBI的简短发展历史,空间VLBI与地面VLBI的不同、空间VLBI的目前状况和空间VLBI的未来展望。着重介绍了作为首次空间VLBI的VSOP的各个方面情况,并给出了VSOP的连续谱、谱线普查样本,供参考。