风廓线雷达估算大气返回信号功率方法研究

基于风廓线雷达大气返回信号功率谱中噪声电平的估算方法,统计分析了北京延庆对流层风廓线雷达（CFL-08）2006年10～12月的探测数据。对该频段风廓线雷达环境噪声的空间和时间变化进行了分析,观测期间环境噪声在5km以下随高度递减,10月的平均环境噪声大于11月、12月的平均分布。给出目前风廓线雷达用信噪比估算大气返回信号功率的两种方法,并对两种方法进行了环境噪声的剔除,经过修正后的大气返回信号功率输出结果趋于一致。     

滨海湿地保护:日本的经验

滨海湿地,在日本,一般被称为"干潟",对日本社会可持续发展意义重大。鉴于日本滨海湿地消失速度极快,日本十分重视保护滨海湿地。以《拉姆萨尔公约》为依据,日本出台了一系列有关干潟、浅海域的决议及劝告书。近几年日本国内正热烈讨论制定"湿地保全法"。     

Reponses and sensitivities of maize phenology to climate change from 1981 to 2009 in Henan Province,China

With the global warming, crop phenological shifts in responses to climate change have become a hot research topic. Based on the long-term observed agro-meteorological phenological data (1981–2009) and meteorological data, we quantitatively analyzed temporal and spatial shifts in maize phenology and their sensitivities to key climate factors change using climate tendency rate and sensitivity analysis methods. Results indicated that the sowing date was significantly delayed and the delay tendency rate was 9.0 d·10a^-1. But the stages from emergence to maturity occurred earlier (0.1 d·10a^-1<θ<1.7 d·10a^-1, θ is the change slope of maize phenology). The length of vegetative period (VPL) (from emergence to tasseling) was shortened by 0.9 d·10a^-1, while the length of generative period (GPL) (from tasseling to maturity) was lengthened by 1.7 d·10a^-1. The growing season length (GSL) (from emergence to maturity) was lengthened by 0.4 d·10a^-1. Correlation analysis indicated that maize phenology was significantly correlated with average temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days (GDD) (p<0.01). Average temperature had significant negative correlation relationship, while precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days had significant positive correlations with maize phenology. Sensitivity analysis indicated that maize phenology showed different responses to variations in key climate factors, especially at different sites. The conclusions of this research could provide scientific supports for agricultural adaptation to climate change to address the global food security issue.     

A hybrid integrated deep learning model for the prediction of citywide spatio-temporal flow volumes

ABSTRACT

The spatio-temporal residual network (ST-ResNet) leverages the power of deep learning (DL) for predicting the volume of citywide spatio-temporal flows. However, this model, neglects the dynamic dependency of the input flows in the temporal dimension, which affects what spatio-temporal features may be captured in the result. This study introduces a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network into the ST-ResNet to form a hybrid integrated-DL model to predict the volumes of citywide spatio-temporal flows (called HIDLST). The new model can dynamically learn the temporal dependency among flows via the feedback connection in the LSTM to improve accurate captures of spatio-temporal features in the flows. We test the HIDLST model by predicting the volumes of citywide taxi flows in Beijing, China. We tune the hyperparameters of the HIDLST model to optimize the prediction accuracy. A comparative study shows that the proposed model consistently outperforms ST-ResNet and several other typical DL-based models on prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we discuss the distribution of prediction errors and the contributions of the different spatio-temporal patterns.     

太平洋副热带高压、西风环流、极涡指数变化与中国夏季降水相关的研究

探讨了副热带高压、西风带环流、极涡指数的年际和年代际变化规律,揭示了来自副热带、中纬度和极地的大气环流系统的强迫对中国夏季降水的影响.结果表明初夏,当纬向环流指数偏弱时,中国东北和华北大部分地区降水量偏多,这表明东亚中高纬地区盛行阻塞和冷涡偶极子系统,呈有利于东北的冷涡雨季形势;盛夏,西太平洋副热带高压脊线位置和亚洲区极涡强度指数与中国同期降水量场相关波列,均为自北向南呈"-、 、-、 "经向波列分布;春季亚洲区极涡强度、亚洲纬向环流指数、西太平洋副热带高压北界位置以及前一年冬季北半球极涡强度指数与盛夏中国降水量相关显著.中国盛夏降水带,从东北地区开始,由北向南分4个雨带.     

泥岩、页岩声速各向异性及其影响因素分析

在实验室超声波频率下(纵波主频为700kHz、横波为250kHz)对层理发育的页岩和泥岩的各向异性进行了研究,给出了在干燥和油饱和条件下,样品不同方向上纵、横波速度以及各向异性参数随压力的变化规律. 用X 射线衍射和扫描电镜分析了样品中引起各向异性的原因,指出平行于层理定向排列的粘土矿物和微裂隙是使样品显示出强弹性各向异性的内在原因. 随着压力的增高微裂隙逐渐闭合,样品的各向异性程度减弱. 孔隙流体的存在增强了孔隙（裂隙）的刚度,减弱了各向异性随压力增大而减小的趋势.     

榆树林油田扶杨油层沉积岩地球化学特征及地质意义

三肇凹陷榆树林油田扶杨油层中泥岩、粉砂岩和砂岩样品主量元素和微量元素地球化学分析表明,多数主量元素含量中等,与全球平均大陆上地壳(UCC)相比,Fe_2O_3、MgO、CaO、Na_2O含量较低,而TiO_2、Al_2O_3、K_2O、MnO含量均略高;样品中的相容元素(V、Cr、Co、Ni等)含量均低于澳大利亚后太古宙页岩(PAAS)和UCC;稀土元素总量为102×10~(-6)~276×10~(-6),平均为188×10~(-6),与PAAS表现出相似的球粒陨石标准化曲线,显示了相似的物源和构造背景。元素间的相关性分析显示大部分元素与SiO_2负相关而与Al_2O_3正相关,说明大部分元素受到黏土矿物吸附作用的影响,石英与长石矿物对这些元素表现出一定的稀释效应。根据主元素物源判别方程图和Th-Hf-Co图投影及La/Hf、(Gd/Yb)N值,扶杨油层物源主要来自后太古宙长英质火山岩,可能卷入了部分再循环沉积岩。通过一系列的构造背景判别图解分析,表明扶杨油层沉积时以大陆岛弧环境为主。在对油层组进行了纵向古气候分析后,认为FI油层组沉积时处于一个构造活动强、干旱的环境中,所形成的沉积岩储层物性更好,是油气勘探开发的重点层位。     

地裂缝场地建筑结构动力响应特征及抗震设防研究

为研究地震作用下地裂缝场地建筑结构的动力响应特征,以西安地裂缝场地为研究背景,分别考虑独立基础、片筏基础、桩基础和桩筏基础上的框架结构,对结构峰值加速度、层间位移等动力响应特征及其影响因素和影响规律进行系统研究。研究结果表明：(1)地裂缝附近场地上的结构加速度响应和层间位移响应具有明显的放大效应,动力响应峰值随着距地裂缝距离的增大逐渐减小,最终趋于稳定,放大效应的影响范围约为24 m,此范围内的结构需提高抗震设防水平;(2)结构的峰值加速度随层高的增大而增大,整体呈现出“S”形,层间位移角随层高的增大先增大后减小,二者均表现出明显的“上盘效应”,即上盘结构响应强于下盘,且随着输入地震动强度的增大,上、下盘结构动力响应差异进一步扩大,上盘效应愈发显著;(3)片筏基础、桩基础和桩筏基础结构的加速度响应接近,而独立基础结构的加速度与前三者差异明显,但随着楼层的增大,基础形式对结构层间位移角的影响逐渐减弱;(4)上、下盘结构的峰值加速度、峰值位移大小及峰值出现的时间等存在一定差异,这是由于地震波经过地裂缝时发生复杂的反射和折射,结构受到非一致性激励造成的。     

合肥地震台钻孔体应变干扰分析

分析合肥地震台钻孔体应变观测资料干扰因素及特征,发现水位和气压等因素对TJ-Ⅱ型钻孔应变仪影响显著.在该地震台观测优化改造期间,钻孔体应变受到临近钻孔灌水的影响,而降雨和灌水导致的水位变化,对体应变干扰程度不同.     

Rupture pattern of the Oct 23, 2011 Van-Merkez,Eastern Turkey earthquake

High-frequency rupture process of the Oct 23, 2011 Van-Merkez earthquake is imaged by back-projection method using high-quality teleseismic P wave data from the US Array, and prestack Kirchhoff migration using P wave data from a subarray of global seismic networks. The rupture model with two asperities is confirmed by previous two methods. In low-frequency imaging, a large asperity derived from the migration method corresponds to the second one from the high-frequency P waves. The consistency of the locations of asperities from datasets with different frequency bands indicates that there is possible insignificance of the frequency-dependent feature for the earthquake. The resultant images illustrate the spatial and temporal evolution of the rupture, which mainly propagated WSW over a length of 33 km during the first 18 s, accompanying with bursts of two asperities at 3 and 11–13 s. The rupture direction is confirmed by the S wave corner frequency variations of strong ground accelerations. The rupture fronts are mainly located at the updip of the causative fault. Based on polarities of the P waveforms and focal mechanisms of the mainshock and aftershocks, the failure of these two asperities is determined to have occurred on a reverse fault with a dip angle of 47°. Hence, the rupture pattern of the 2011 Van-Merkez earthquake was dominated by a unilateral rupture toward the west-southwest direction.