A low-level jet along the Benguela coast, an integral part of the Benguela current ecosystem

The Benguela Current Ecosystem of Southern Africa is the strongest wind-driven coastal upwelling system known. This is one of the most productive ocean areas in the world, extremely rich in fishery resources with a total catch in excess of one million tons per annum. Marine life off the coast relies heavily on the nutrient-rich upwellings of the cold Benguela current. Warming events occur along this coast in association with many El Niños. These tremendously disrupt the coastal ecosystem, reducing productivity and devastating the anchovy and sardine fisheries. This article demonstrates for the first time the existence of a low-level atmospheric jet along the Benguela Coast of the southeastern Atlantic. Blowing parallel to the coast, this jet drives the coastal upwelling system and is part of a mechanism that links Pacific El Niño events to Southern Africa. The existence of such a jet has tremendous implications for the Benguela current and its response to climatic variability and change because a positive feedback exists between the intensity of this jet and the intensity of coastal upwelling. This may enhance the response of the Benguela Current Ecosystem to climatic variability, making it particularly susceptible to the impacts of global climate change.     

A hybrid artificial neural network-numerical model for ground water problems

Numerical models constitute the most advanced physical-based methods for modeling complex ground water systems. Spatial and/or temporal variability of aquifer parameters, boundary conditions, and initial conditions (for transient simulations) can be assigned across the numerical model domain. While this constitutes a powerful modeling advantage, it also presents the formidable challenge of overcoming parameter uncertainty, which, to date, has not been satisfactorily resolved, inevitably producing model prediction errors. In previous research, artificial neural networks (ANNs), developed with more accessible field data, have achieved excellent predictive accuracy over discrete stress periods at site-specific field locations in complex ground water systems. In an effort to combine the relative advantages of numerical models and ANNs, a new modeling paradigm is presented. The ANN models generate accurate predictions for a limited number of field locations. Appending them to a numerical model produces an overdetermined system of equations, which can be solved using a variety of mathematical techniques, potentially yielding more accurate numerical predictions. Mathematical theory and a simple two-dimensional example are presented to overview relevant mathematical and modeling issues. Two of the three methods for solving the overdetermined system achieved an overall improvement in numerical model accuracy for various levels of synthetic ANN errors using relatively few constrained head values (i.e., cells), which, while demonstrating promise, requires further research. This hybrid approach is not limited to ANN technology; it can be used with other approaches for improving numerical model predictions, such as regression or support vector machines (SVMs).     

Glacial and periglacial buzzsaws: fitting mechanisms to metaphors

The buzzsaw hypothesis refers to the potential for glacial and periglacial processes to rapidly denude mountains at and above glacier Equilibrium Line Altitudes (ELAs), irrespective of uplift rates, rock type or pre-existing topography. Here the appropriateness of the buzzsaw metaphor is examined alongside questions of the links between glacial erosion and ELAs, and whether the glacial system can produce low-relief surfaces or limit summit heights. Plateau fragments in mountains on both active orogens and passive margins that have been cited as products of glacial and periglacial buzzsaw erosion instead generally represent dissected remnants of largely inherited, pre-glacial relief. Summit heights may correlate with ELAs but no causal link need be implied as summit erosion rates are low, cirque headwalls may not directly abut summits and, on passive margins, cirques are cut into pre-existing mountain topography. Any simple links between ELAs and glacial erosion break down on passive margins due to topographic forcing of ice-sheet growth, and to the km-scale vertical swaths through which ELAs have shifted through the Quaternary. Glaciers destroy rather than create low-relief rock surfaces through the innate tendency for ice flow to be faster, thicker and warmer along valleys. The glacial buzzsaw cuts down.     

Sources of spread in simulations of Arctic sea ice loss over the twenty-first century

We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolve over the course of the twenty-first century. The SIT distribution is the most important factor in current trends and those of coming decades, accounting for roughly half the intermodel variations in SSIE trends. Then, its role progressively decreases, so that around the middle of the twenty-first century the local climate feedback parameter becomes the dominant factor. Through this analysis, we identify the investments in improved simulation of Arctic climate necessary to reduce uncertainties both in projections of sea ice loss over the coming decades and in the ultimate fate of the ice pack.     

Measurement of seabed sound speeds from head waves in shallow water

Acoustic signals from small explosive charges have been measured with sonobuoys on twelve tracks in Australian northern shallow waters with the aim of assessing whether useful geoacoustic information could be obtained. Using the frequency band from 14 to 70 Hz, travel times of head waves were monitored, and the sound speeds and depths of corresponding interfaces in the seabed were derived. The water sound speed varied a little with range, and its depth dependence was allowed for by using its average value. Head waves from interfaces indistinguishable from the seafloor (the water/seabed interface) were detected on only three of the tracks, with derived sound speeds of 2100 to 2300 m/s. The first sub-bottom interfaces were from 50 to 600 m beneath the seafloor, and their sound speeds ranged from around 2000 m/s to 6400 m/s. Thus the head waves were from chalk or limestone, cemented sediments in which sound-speed gradients would be small. The amount of data obtained for the seafloor was limited by incoherence of the signals and, for some tracks, by excessive spacing between shots. The incoherence is generally attributed to multiple head waves that are individually unresolvable, while on two tracks there were indications of medal ground waves. Occasional anomalous data were obtained, but generally the assumptions of the simple interpretation method were found to be valid. Since no curvature in the range-time lines was observed, there was no evidence of sub-bottom sound-speed gradients being significant     

Glacial Lake Victoria,a high‐level Antarctic Lake inferred from lacustrine deposits in Victoria Valley

We present evidence of a large lake (Glacial Lake Victoria) that existed in Victoria Valley in the dry valleys region of Antarctica between at least 20 000 and 8600 ¹⁴C yr BP. At its highstands, Glacial Lake Victoria covered 100 km² and was ca. 200 m deep. The chronology for lake‐level changes comes from 87 AMS radiocarbon dates of lacustrine algae preserved in deltas and glaciolacustrine deposits that extend up to 185 m above present‐day lakes on the valley floor. The existence of Glacial Lake Victoria, as well as other large lakes in the dry valleys, indicates a climate regime significantly different from that of today at the last glacial maximum and in the early Holocene. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rainfall interception by trees of Pinus radiata,and Eucalyptus viminalis,in a 1300 mm rainfall area of southeastern New South Wales: I. Gross losses and their variability

Interception loss, I, was determined by continuous concurrent measurements of the canopy precipitation balances of a mature seed orchard tree of Pinus radiata, and a dominant tree of Eucalyptus viminalis at a mountainous high rainfall site (900 m a.s.l.) in Tallaganda State Forest of the Upper Shoalhaven Catchment. Approximate canopy storage capacity (Sc) of the pine was 54 l, and that of the eucalypt was 11·3 l. Gross pine I was 26·5 per cent and eucalypt I was 8·3 per cent of total incident rainfall over a period of 18 months, from June 1975 to December 1976. The exponential model that provided the best fit to overall data relating I to gross rainfall (P_g) was of good precision for the pine (r² = 0·73) but rather poor precision for the eucalypt (r² = 0·27). A consistent pattern in interception data of the two canopy types suggested that variation in I was related to change in pervasive conditions influencing rates of evaporation from wet canopies during rainfall. Multiple regression analyses confirmed that factors such as rainfall intensity and windspeed explained some of the variation in eucalypt I but little in pine I. Negative eucalypt I and corresponding low values of pine I over a wide range of P_g (up to 20 mm) suggest that capture of wind-borne precipitation (cloud, mist, or fog) had also complicated the canopy precipitation balances.     

A three-dimensional finite-element model of wind effects upon higher harmonics of the internal tide

A non-linear three-dimensional unstructured grid model of the M₂ tide in the shelf edge area off the west coast of Scotland is used to examine the spatial distribution of the M₂ internal tide and its higher harmonics in the region. In addition, the spatial variability of the tidally induced turbulent kinetic energy and associated mixing in the area are considered. Initial calculations involve only tidal forcing, although subsequent calculations are performed with up-welling and down-welling favourable winds to examine how these influence the tidal distribution (particularly the higher harmonics) and mixing in the region. Both short- and long-duration winds are used in these calculations. Tidal calculations show that there is significant small-scale spatial variability particularly in the higher harmonics of the internal tide in the region. In addition, turbulence energy and mixing exhibit appreciable spatial variability in regions of rapidly changing topography, with increased mixing occurring above seamounts. Wind effects significantly change the distribution of the M₂ internal tide and its higher harmonics, with appreciable differences found between up- and down-welling winds and long- and short-duration winds because of differences in mixing and the presence of wind-induced flows. The implications for model validation, particularly in terms of energy transfer to higher harmonics, and mixing are briefly discussed.